ukecco: concepts & work to date
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UkEcco: concepts & work to date
Simon Roberts
ECCOfest 2009
14Oct09
14Oct09, Simon Roberts© Arup 2009
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flow ofservicesVPJ/y
embodiedenergy of
stuffVPJ flow of
stuffVPJ/y
services%
IrelandEcco concepts
energyPJ/y
stocks ofstuffVPJ
trade in goods
trade in fuel
CO2t/y
resourceVPJ/y
depre- ciation
VPJ/y
transportkm/y
14Oct09, Simon Roberts© Arup 2009
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CSIRO report, 1998, p53
In order to endogenise growth in the model, it is assumed that only the residual between output and all other investment requirements (including trade) is allocated to reinvestment in industry, and consumption, the split between the two being determined empirically and altered by a policy lever RGCT (rate of goods consumption) in the section on “Personal consumption of goods”.
Reinvestment in industry is subject to a construction delay, estimated at two years ie it takes two years for a decision to invest in industry to be translated into new physical output.
14Oct09, Simon Roberts© Arup 2009
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IrelandEccogrowth loop
output of goods
primary energy demand
depreciation
proportion of services used by industrystock of
service sector
stock of industry sector
resources
export of goods
resource demand
capital formation of other sectors
capital formationof services
consumptionof goods
depreciation
depreciation
import of goods
capital formationof industry export of
fuel
import of fuel
14Oct09, Simon Roberts© Arup 2009
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growth feedback
• 3,000 VPJ/y total output
• 100 VPJ/y industry investment (RCF)
• 2,000 VPJ industry stock
14Oct09, Simon Roberts© Arup 2009
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IrelandEccoenergy provision shortfall
shortfall in electricity generation
thermalgeneration
fuelimports/exports
domestic extraction
transport thermal demand
electricity demand
stationary thermal demand
gas, oil & coal demand
freight demand
index standard of livingper capita
CCTgeneration
nucleargeneration
REgeneration
interconnector
capitalformation ofgeneration
shortfall/surplus in fuels
stock of service sector
stock of other sectors
stock of dwellings
stock of industry sector
consumption of goods
service demand dwellings passenger
transport volume
output of industry
output of service sector
14Oct09, Simon Roberts© Arup 2009
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IrelandEccoservice provision needed
total domestic service demand
stock of service sector
stock of industry sector
capital formationof service sector
depreciation
stock of dwellings
service demand service sector
service demand industry sector
service demand dwellings
service demand net of trade
stock of service sector required
service demand for exports
14Oct09, Simon Roberts© Arup 2009
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IrelandEcco: variables
endogenous• RCF industry• consumer consumption• RCF services
exogenous• service exports
14Oct09, Simon Roberts© Arup 2009
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IrelandEcco: problems
1. “growth loop”– small residual (RCF IND) feeds back to the larger IND OUTPUT– derivation of “consumption” poorly substantiated
2. trade– energy imports VPJ equated to goods export VPJ– as energy imports increase, exactly balanced by goods export
increase
3. services– no conversion to exported services– ignores imported services
4. balance of payments– no option to trade fuel, goods, services and other aspects
14Oct09, Simon Roberts© Arup 2009
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UkEcco: variables
endogenous• consumer consumption• RCF services• RCF dwellings• GDP growth• energy demand• employment• foreign investment
exogenous• RCF industry• indices• fossil fuel availability • service exports
14Oct09, Simon Roberts© Arup 2009
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flow ofservicesVPJ/y
embodiedenergy of
stuffVPJ
flow ofgoodsG£/y
flow ofstuff
VPJ/y
servicesS£/y
UkEcco conceptsenergyPJ/y
stocks ofstuffVPJ
trade in goods
trade in fuel
financial account
income
BoP£/y
current account transfers
trade in services
workingpopulation
capita
CO2t/y
resourceVPJ/y
depre- ciation
VPJ/y
domesticliabilities
£
foreignassets
£
financial account
transportkm/y
income
14Oct09, Simon Roberts© Arup 2009
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money
1. goods (flow)
2. services (flow)
3. incomes (flow)
4. property, equity, second-hand goods (stock)
5. debt, loans
14Oct09, Simon Roberts© Arup 2009
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loop 1: stuff remaining(“growth loop”)
output of goods
primary energy demand
depreciation
proportion of services used by industrystock of
service sector
stock of industry sector
resources
export of goods
resource demand
capital formation of other sectors
capital formationof services
capital formation of industry
consumptionof goods
depreciation
depreciation
import of goods
14Oct09, Simon Roberts© Arup 2009
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loop 2: service provision needed
total domestic service demand
stock of service sector
stock of industry sector
service demand met by importscapital formation
of service sector
depreciation
stock of dwellings
service demand service sector
service demand industry sector
service demand dwellings
service demand net of trade
stock of service sector required
service demand for exports
14Oct09, Simon Roberts© Arup 2009
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loop 3: energy provision shortfall
shortfall in electricity generation
thermalgeneration
fuelimports/exports
domestic extraction
transport thermal demand
electricity demand
stationary thermal demand
gas, oil & coal demand
freight demand
index standard of livingper capita
CCTgeneration
nucleargeneration
REgeneration
interconnector
capitalformation ofgeneration
shortfall/surplus in fuels
stock of service sector
stock of other sectors
stock of dwellings
stock of industry sector
consumption of goods
service demand dwellings passenger
transport volume
output of industry
output of service sector
14Oct09, Simon Roberts© Arup 2009
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loop 4: balance of payments
fuel trade
income from assets
transfers
UK investment abroad
total current account
investmentinto the UK
exports
exchange rate
goods trade
services tradeimports
income payable on liabilities
fuel £
goods £
services £
14Oct09, Simon Roberts© Arup 2009
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presentation attempts!
• IoP EG talk (Oct07)• takes: 0 (Aug08), 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (Jun09, pp53)• “The story of…” video (Jul09)• dashboards of scenarios (Sep09)• presentation of dashboards (12Oct09)
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