update on the drought of 2011

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Update on the Drought of 2011

TWCA Mid Year ConferenceJune 16, 2011

Bob Rose, Meteorologist LCRA

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www.lcra.orgRainfall Since October 1st

www.lcra.orgRainfall Since October 1st

Rainfall Since Oct. 1

Midland 0.16Marfa 0.25

Fort Stockton 0.08El Paso 0.45

Brownfield 0.77

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Rainfall Departure From NormalSince Oct.1

www.lcra.orgRainfall So Far in June

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While Many Areas Were in Flood, Texas Couldn’t Buy any Rain

www.lcra.orgOne of the Worst Droughts on Record

• 3rd Worst Drought in History next to 1918 and 1956.

• October through May, the driest of any 8 months on record.

• Driest on record for December through May, February through May, and March through May.

www.lcra.orgSoil Moisture Anomaly

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An Unusually Warm Start to Spring/Early Summer

www.lcra.orgLatest Drought Monitor

www.lcra.orgLatest Drought Monitor

www.lcra.orgComparison with Worst of 2009 Drought

September 1, 2009

www.lcra.orgLa Niña has Ended. Now in Neutral.

June 13th

www.lcra.orgTrending Back to La Niña?

El Nino

La Nina

www.lcra.orgNWS July through September Outlook

Temperature Precipitation

www.lcra.orgDrought Outlook through September

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WetDry

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Composite PrecipitationJune through August

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Composite PrecipitationSeptember through October

www.lcra.orgNAEFS Forecast through July 1st

Probability for Greater than 1/2 inch of Rain

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Outlook for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane

Season

www.lcra.orgSea Surface Temperature Anomalies

www.lcra.orgNational Hurricane Center Outlook

www.lcra.orgColorado State ‘11 Hurricane Outlook

“We continue to foresee well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. We are predicting the same levels of activity that were forecast in early April due to the combination of expected neutral ENSO conditions and very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the tropical Atlantic. We continue to anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.

William Gray and Phil Klatzback, Colorado State University, June , 1st Update

16 Named Storms (normal is 9.6)

9 Hurricanes (normal is 5.9)

5 Major Hurricanes (normal is 2.3)

www.lcra.orgYears with Similar Conditions

1971, 2008

www.lcra.org1971

www.lcra.org2008

www.lcra.org2011 Hurricane Season Names

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Bob RoseMeteorologist, LCRAbob.rose@lcra.org

512-473-3350