urbanization

UrbanizationIntroduction to Global Studies

XIDS 2301

Map 18 Urbanization

Global urban growth

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1950 1975 2003 2030

Year

Bill

ions

of p

eopl

e

An increasing number of people in cities

Global urbanization

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1950 1975 2003 2030

Year

Perc

ent u

rban

An increasing rate of urbanization

Global Urbanization Since 1950

0102030405060708090

1950 1975 2003 2030

Year

%U

rban World

MDCsLDCs

Urbanization since 1950, by region

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1950 1975 2003 2030Year

#Urb

an (m

illio

ns) Africa

AsiaEuropeLA & CN AmericaOceania

Urbanization rate

Growth in urbanization rate

Megacities in 2003

Urban agglomeration Population (millions)

Tokyo, Japan 35.0Mexico City, Mexico 18.7New York, USA 18.3Sao Paulo, Brazil 17.9Mumbai, India 17.4Delhi, India 14.1Calcutta, India 13.8Buenos Aires, Argentina 13.0Shanghai, China 12.8Jakarta, Indonesia 12.3Los Angeles, USA 12.0Dhaka, Bangladesh 11.6Osaka-Kobe, Japan 11.2Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 11.2Karachi, Pakistan 11.1Beijing, China 10.8Cairo, Egypt 10.8Moscow, Russia 10.5Manila, Philippines 10.4Lagos, Nigeria 10.1

*The share of the world’s, MDC’s, and LDC’s urban populations concentrated in megacities is increasing, but . . .

Distribution of urban population by city size

1975 2003>10 million 4.3% 9.3%5-10 million 8.6% 5.7%1-5 million 22.0% 22.8%

500k-1 million 11.8% 10.4%<500k 53.3% 51.7%

1975 2003>10 million 6.0% 9.7%5-10 million 8.8% 5.9%1-5 million 20.9% 23.7%

500k-1 million 10.1% 8.6%<500k 54.1% 52.1%

1975 2003>10 million 2.7% 9.1%5-10 million 8.5% 5.6%1-5 million 22.9% 22.5%

500k-1 million 13.3% 11.1%<500k 52.5% 51.6%

World urban population

MDC urban population

LDC urban population

“Overurbanization”What? Why?

Squatting

South America

Southeast Asia

Informal Economy

Africa

South America

Urbanization:Local and Global Forces

Push or Pull?

Cities will account for virtually all future world population growthNinety five percent of this will occur in the urban areas of developing countriesDhaka, Kinshasa, Lagos 40 times larger than they were in 1950 (compare to London, 7 times larger in 1910 than 1800Huge cities—Mexico city expected to grow to 50 million, almost 40 percent of the National total

Three-quarters of burden of future world pop growth will be borne by smaller cities“there is little or no planning to accommodate these people or provide them with Services”Why the rapid growth? Manufacturing growth. But most of developing world lacks this—Urbanization is decoupled from industrialization and “development” and risingAgricultural productivityUrbanization without industrializationWhy? Economic liberalization—declining safety nets, farmers competing in global commodity Mkts, more vulnerable to exogeneous shocks: drought, inflation, falling prices, etc.Plus unstable wars, combining with economic dislocations, were ravaging countrysidesGlobal forces are “pushing” people from the countryside—mechanization of ag, importers, civil war and drought, Comptition with industrial-scale agribusiness; the “pull” is weakened by stagnant growthPopulation growth without investment in infrastructure, educational facilities, public healthsystems

Slum growth—urbanization and slum growth are synonymousSince 1970, slum growth has outpaced urbanizationMexico City– 60 percent of city’s growth was slum growthSao Paulo—slums were 1.2 percent in 1973, 20 percent in 1993In Amazon, 80 percent of city growth is in slumsIn South Asia 90 percent of urban growth was slum growthOf 500k who migrate to Delhi each year, 400k end up in slums; by 2015 will have slum pop of 10 millionIn Africa, fastest slum growth on earth. Growing twice as fast as overall city growthIn Kenya, 85 percent of city growth was slum growthCities of the future quote on page 19“The state does nothing here quote on page 62Squatting and informal economyStrategy has shifted from eliminating slums and/or poverty to improving them; they are now the solution and not the problem—self-help, incremental construction and legalization

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2007/05/dharavi-mumbai-slum/dharavi-video-interactive