us migration methodology from 1990 to 2011 by travis goldade
Post on 16-Dec-2015
213 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
OUTLINE
• Back ground/Project Idea• What is Migration• Why am I interested• Historical Migration Trends
• Domestic and World
• Past Studies
• Discussion my plan• Ideal Vs Practical
OVERVIEW: WHAT IS MIGRATION?
• Migration- the study of where people go and why
• Often described by Push & Pull Factors
• PushPolitical instability, War, Famine
• PullEconomics, Population, Cultural, Sociological
WORLD MIGRATION
From the start
Started in Africa 200,00 Years agoPolynesia wasn’t settled till ~1000 A.D.
Reason For Migration:
• Invasions• Famine • Climate Change
Survival
WORLD MIGRATION
Age of Exploration ~1600 to 1800
First major Migration of people for social needs(Printing Press)
Reason For Migration:
• Religious persecution • Nationalism
Freedom
WORLD MIGRATION
Industrial/Modern Migration ~1800 to Today
Better Transportation (steam engine)
Reason For Migration:
• Labor Migration (international)• Urbanization (Internal)
Money
WORLD MIGRATION
Trends
Migration Follows Change
• Climatic, Resource Based• People had to move to live
• Renascence Social Revolution• Moved for Freedom
• Industrial Revolution• Moved for Money• Political Shocks (fall of USSR)
It is Accelerating
More people are moving
16th -18th century 200 thousand people moved to America
19th century over 50 Million people moved to America
People move more for Economic reasons todayProduct of Globalization
HISTORICAL US ECON(1900’S TO 1980)• Product of Britain's Industrial Revolution
• Econ was driven by manufacturing• 1900-1950’s (Industrial Rev)
• Strong immigration towards urban centers• Reason = Jobs (Economic Pull)
• 1950 – 1980’s (Better Technology)• Increase is transportation systems
• Pull away from the urban centers (suburbs)• Move towards Manufacturing centers
• Suburbs of Detroit• Move towards more desirable locations
• Nicer climate, less stress etc..
• Common Trends• East to West & North to South• Went to Urban centers
INTERNET REVOLUTION
• Since the internet things have changed…• No longer are we a Manufacturing based industry (that goes to China) • We are information based and serviced based.
• Primarily because we live in a notion were goods are cheep but people are expensive• So we cannot afford to pay people
• We are now serviced and Information based
• This has changed our jobs• And our migration
MIGRATION TRENDSCURRENT (1990-PRESENT)
• Movement Away from Urban Centers• Rural Areas becoming much more populated
• These are more desirable (cheaper, and you can still get a decent job)• Population is less mobile
• Reason for this is jobs are not as centralized• We moved from manufacturing industry• To service and Information/tech based industry
• We don’t have to go a large factory • Job providers have more flexibility (they don’t have to be next to a mine or port)
MY OBSERVATION OF HISTORICAL MIGRATION
• Push Factors = Survival & Social• You only move if you have to
• Pull Factors = Econ and Leisure• You move because you want to
• Push is more common in poor areas• Pull is more common in 1st world
BACKGROUND & IDEA
• Goal is to better understand US migration patterns• Modern (since the Internet Revolution)
• Migration is a strong economic indicator• Data readily available• Complex analyses is every seldom used for this topic
• Migration is Difficult to understand till time passes
• Focus on differing political & economic times (Modern Booms and Busts)• This is a poorly under stood topic
• Typically booms = ordered• Busts = Chaos
WHY MIGRATION?
• To pass this class?
• Internal Migration = strong economic indictor• People follow the money (where will we end up after graduation?)
• If they don’t that is where they spend it (Retirees)• That area then benefits
• The dust is just starting to settle on the internet revolution• Effects are still not known (similar to the industrial rev)• Migration patterns have changed..
• As far as I can tell this is completely novel
• This is Interesting, but probably not too practical
WORLD MIGRATION LITERATURE
The Findings were not that surprising• There were hubs (US, Germany ect)• The world is shrinking (small world)• South to North pull• People head to larger populations
Gravity Model Applied• F= flow• G= const• D= Distance• M=Economic Mass
WORLD MIGRATION LITERATURE
• Weighted Gravity Model Matrix• Language, Religion, Economic power ect
• They combined these in a 5 point metric • Referenced in a book I could not access
Log(N) =3.38 in 2000 Log(N) =1.36 in 2000
MODERN US MIGRATION
Trends
Flow from East to West
Economic & Social based • People move for leisure• Educated young males most
likely
Not vey well studied
Influx migration strong indicator of healthy economy
Pull Factors• High Employment• Larger Populations (Urbanization)• Housing
Push Factors• High Taxes (Government?)
Good Economic times Orderedpeople go where the jobs are
Bad Economic times Chaotic
MY PROPOSAL
• Ideally I would like to develop a gravity model for the US Internal Migration• Factors would include All major push an pull factors :
• Population• Local Tax Rates• Distance from large companies• Housing Costs • Political Affiliation ….
• This is impractical• I simply cannot get that data• Could not analyze it• I think elements in gravity model would change
• During different economic time frames
MY PROPOSAL
• Compromise• Just looking at Population migration between counties
• IRS has this data from 1990 to 2011
• Also look at Political affiliation of each county• Ideally I would like to look at county government afflation
• Again this is impractical
• Presidential voting turn outs• Nice easy to digest data• UNR has this data• I could get in great detail with it
• Look at this Data in differing Economic and Political time frames
MY PROPOSAL
• Time Frames to consider
• Economic
• 1990-1994: Formation of Internet
• 1995-2001: Dot Com Boom
• 2002-2004: Early 2000’s Recession
• 2004-2007: Housing Boom
• 2008-2013?: Great Recession
• 2013-present getting out of it?
• Political
1988-1992: Bush Sr. (Rep)
• 1992-2000: Clinton (Dem)
• 2000-2008: Bush Jr. (Rep)
• 2008-Present : Obama (Dem)
MY PROPOSAL• Questions to answer
• Overall is there a trend to move to one political affiliation?• Are we more likely to move to a Republican or Democrat County?
• Is there a correlation between National and local political afflation ?• Are we more likely to move to a Republican county when we have a Republican President
and visa versa?
• How about differing economic times?• During a boom where do we tend to go? • How about a bust?
• Are there communities that from• Does forming a community = economic strength
WHAT AM I EXPECTING
• I am expecting a loose correlation • Dot Com Boom people headed west
• Cali• General Trend West
• Housing Boom People went to cheep homes • Las Vega, the south and West
• Recession ….. God only knows• If anything there has been tending towards the Mid West
• Expect different strengths of correlation when comparing• Flux vs net
• Expecting Current time frame to be the most interesting• Migration is not well
understood during Recessions
• Obviously this was a big one
SUMMATION
Complex Analysis has rarely been applied to migration
• Historically people move following change & Survival
• World Scale• People are moving to
Economic Hubs• They move more out of
Necessity
• US Scale• People move for leisure• Typically follow housing prices &
job opportunities• Poorly understood
• People tend to follow money• Strong Economic Indicator
• I propose • Map county by county map of
the US from 1990 to 2011• Look for patterns
• Particularly Political Patterns
top related