usa presidential race 11 05 12
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SDL Proprietary and Confidential SDL Proprietary and Confidential
USA Presidential Race 2012 By Battleground States
Date Range: October 27 – November 2, 2012
6%
15% 7%
39%
17%
5% 11%
Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS
Middle Class Jobs/Economy
Budget/Deficit Obamacare
Foreign Policy
*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments *
100%
All Eight States
2
Share of Voice – Key Issues
Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)
KEY FINDINGS:
After having a huge boost in share of voice the
previous week, this week, “Foreign Policy” lost
awareness in all eight states and dropped by
18.4% in share of voice. “Jobs/Economy”
returned to be the most discussed issue, after
having an increase of 9.7% in share of voice.
• Obama: Obama led in sentiment in all eight
states. His total Sentiment Score decreased
slightly by 0.2, but still stayed positive (0.6).
He was believed by many people in all eight
states to be the better candidate, especially
for protecting the middle class and restoring
the economy.
• Romney: Romney’s total Sentiment Score
improved slightly by 0.5, but still remained
negative (-6.8). He was mostly criticized for
the fact that he had his company, Bain
Capital, shift jobs to China.
Current
Week
Previous
Week Change
Abortion/Choice 6.1% 5.5% 0.6%
Medicare/Social
Security 14.5% 10.9% 3.6%
Protecting the
middle class 6.9% 5.1% 1.8%
Jobs/Economy 39.5% 29.8% 9.7%
Budget deficit 17.2% 16.2% 1.0%
Obamacare 5.0% 3.3% 1.7%
Foreign Policy 10.8% 29.2% 18.4%
Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change
Obama 0.6 0.8 0.2
Romney -6.8 -7.3 0.5
5% 13%
7%
37%
21%
6% 11%
Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS
Middle Class Jobs/Economy
Budget/Deficit Obamacare
Foreign Policy
*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments *
100%
Wisconsin
3
Share of Voice – Key Issues
Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)
KEY FINDINGS:
Wisconsinites shifted their attention from the
issue “Foreign Policy” to the issue
“Jobs/Economy” this week. As a result,
“Jobs/Economy” boosted by 15.2%, while
“Foreign Policy” dropped by 20.3% in share of
voice.
• Obama: Obama led in volume this week
with over 3,500 mentions. He also led in
sentiment with a positive score of 3.7.
Although he still received negative
comments for the high unemployment rate,
many Wisconsinites believed that Obama
would truly care for the middle class and
restore the economy.
• Romney: Romney had about 3,000
mentions in Wisconsin this week. His
Sentiment Score improved by 1.0 to a score
of -4.8. Most of the negative comments
towards Romney stated that his economic
plan was not trustworthy.
Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change
Obama 3.7 3.4 0.3
Romney -4.8 -5.8 1.0
Current
Week
Previous
Week Change
Abortion/Choice 5.1% 4.1% 1.0%
Medicare/Social
Security 12.9% 11.0% 1.9%
Protecting the
middle class 6.6% 6.4% 0.2%
Jobs/Economy 37.6% 22.4% 15.2%
Budget deficit 20.7% 22.6% 1.9%
Obamacare 6.3% 2.4% 3.9%
Foreign Policy 10.8% 31.1% 20.3%
*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments *
100%
Virginia
4
Share of Voice – Key Issues
Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)
KEY FINDINGS:
The issue “Foreign Policy” also lost awareness
(-20.7%) in Virginia this week, while people
were more concerned about the issues
“Medicare/Social Security” and “Budget deficit”
(+9.3% and +9.0%, respectively).
“Jobs/Economy” remained the most popular
issue.
• Obama: Obama led in volume this week
with over 7,000 mentions. He also led in
volume with a positive score of 1.9 (up 2.1).
Obama enjoyed more positive comments
from Virginians as job growth quickened.
• Romney: The volume of conversations
about Romney was around 5,000. His
Sentiment Score decreased by 4.5 to a
score of -11.3. Romney was heavily
criticized for his poor Medicare program and
for the fact that he shifted jobs to China.
Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change
Obama 1.9 -0.2 2.1
Romney -11.3 -6.8 4.5
Current
Week
Previous
Week Change
Abortion/Choice 3.7% 7.0% 3.3%
Medicare/Social
Security 17.0% 7.7% 9.3%
Protecting the
middle class 7.0% 4.5% 2.5%
Jobs/Economy 35.3% 36.4% 1.1%
Budget deficit 22.8% 13.8% 9.0%
Obamacare 6.0% 1.7% 4.3%
Foreign Policy 8.2% 28.9% 20.7%
4%
17% 7%
35%
23%
6% 8%
Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS
Middle Class Jobs/Economy
Budget/Deficit Obamacare
Foreign Policy
*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments *
100%
North Carolina
5
Share of Voice – Key Issues
Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)
KEY FINDINGS:
This week, North Carolinians returned to their
favorite issue “Jobs/Economy”, which increased
by 21.6%. The issue “Foreign Policy” lost
awareness and dropped by 26.9%.
• Obama: Obama led in volume this week
with over 7,000 mentions. He led in
sentiment as well with a score of 0.4 (up
1.1). The improvement in the jobs report
helped Obama to win positive comments
from North Carolinians.
• Romney: Romney had about 4,500
mentions this week in North Carolina. His
Sentiment Score improved by 1.6, but still
stayed negative (-5.6). Romney was mostly
criticized for the fact that he shifted jobs in
his firm to China. He also received negative
comments on his foreign policies for the
Middle East.
Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change
Obama 0.4 -0.7 1.1
Romney -5.6 -7.2 1.6
Current
Week
Previous
Week Change
Abortion/Choice 4.3% 6.5% 2.2%
Medicare/Social
Security 15.4% 9.6% 5.8%
Protecting the
middle class 6.5% 4.0% 2.5%
Jobs/Economy 44.3% 22.7% 21.6%
Budget deficit 14.5% 17.0% 2.5%
Obamacare 5.0% 3.3% 1.7%
Foreign Policy 10.0% 36.9% 26.9%
4%
15% 7%
44%
15%
5% 10%
Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS
Middle Class Jobs/Economy
Budget/Deficit Obamacare
Foreign Policy
7%
13%
7%
37%
19%
5% 12%
Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS
Middle Class Jobs/Economy
Budget/Deficit Obamacare
Foreign Policy
*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments *
100%
Florida
6
Share of Voice – Key Issues
Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)
KEY FINDINGS:
Floridians mostly discussed “Jobs/Economy”
this week (37.2% share of voice). Meanwhile,
the issue “Foreign Policy” had a big drop of
11.3% in share of voice.
• Obama: Obama led in volume this week
with over 20,000 mentions. He also led in
sentiment with a score of 0.1 (down -0.7).
There were many negative comments
blaming Obama for the national debt.
However, many other Floridians believed
that he would be the better candidate to
restore the economy and care for the middle
class.
• Romney: The amount of conversations
about Romney was around 15,000. His
Sentiment Score stayed negative at -3.8
(though up 1.4). Most of the negative
comments from Floridians towards Romney
targeted his poorly planned Medicare
program and his foreign policies in the
Middle East.
Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change
Obama 0.1 0.8 0.7
Romney -3.8 -5.2 1.4
Current
Week
Previous
Week Change
Abortion/Choice 6.6% 4.9% 1.7%
Medicare/Social
Security 13.0% 13.4% 0.4%
Protecting the
middle class 6.6% 5.8% 0.8%
Jobs/Economy 37.2% 33.6% 3.6%
Budget deficit 19.2% 14.6% 4.6%
Obamacare 5.5% 4.5% 1.0%
Foreign Policy 11.9% 23.2% 11.3%
*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments *
100%
Ohio
7
Share of Voice – Key Issues
Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)
KEY FINDINGS:
“Jobs/Economy”, which increased by 10.1% in
share of voice, was the most discussed issue
this week in Ohio. “Medicare/Social Security”
increased by 5.5% and was the second most
discussed issue. Meanwhile, “Foreign Policy”
dropped by 20.4% in share of voice.
• Obama: Obama led in volume this week
with over 10,000 mentions. He also led in
sentiment, even though his Sentiment Score
dropped by 6.6 to a negative score of -1.4.
Obama was blamed by Ohioans for the job
loss in the auto industry in Ohio. Some of
the negative comments also criticized his
health care plans.
• Romney: Romney received about 7,000
mentions in Ohio this week. His Sentiment
Score did not change much (down 0.2).
Ohioans mostly complained about the fact
that he shifted jobs from his company, Bain
Capital, to China.
Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change
Obama -1.4 5.2 6.6
Romney -5.1 -4.9 0.2
Current
Week
Previous
Week Change
Abortion/Choice 7.7% 5.9% 1.8%
Medicare/Social
Security 15.3% 9.8% 5.5%
Protecting the
middle class 7.4% 5.5% 1.9%
Jobs/Economy 42.4% 32.3% 10.1%
Budget deficit 12.5% 12.1% 0.4%
Obamacare 3.8% 3.1% 0.7%
Foreign Policy 10.9% 31.3% 20.4%
8%
15%
7% 42%
13%
4% 11%
Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS
Middle Class Jobs/Economy
Budget/Deficit Obamacare
Foreign Policy
*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments *
100%
Colorado
8
Share of Voice – Key Issues
Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)
KEY FINDINGS:
In Colorado this week, “Jobs/Economy” became
the most discussed issue with 36.1% share of
voice (+15.5%). Coloradoans talked less about
“Foreign Policy”, making it drop by 20.1% in
share of voice. “Medicare/Social Security” was
the second most discussed issue with 18.7%
share of voice.
• Obama: Obama led in volume this week
with over 5,000 mentions. He led in
sentiment as well with a positive score of 0.5
(up 1.2). The fact that the job growth
quickened helped Obama earn many
positive comments from Coloradoans this
week.
• Romney: The volume of conversations
about Romney was around 3,000. His
Sentiment Score improved by 4.8 to a score
of -4.5. The fact that his company, Bain
Capital, moved jobs to China brought many
negative comments from Coloradoans this
week.
Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change
Obama 0.5 -0.7 1.2
Romney -4.5 -9.3 4.8
Current
Week
Previous
Week Change
Abortion/Choice 6.4% 5.4% 1.0%
Medicare/Social
Security 18.7% 9.8% 8.9%
Protecting the
middle class 7.9% 3.2% 4.7%
Jobs/Economy 36.1% 20.6% 15.5%
Budget deficit 14.5% 24.2% 9.7%
Obamacare 2.9% 3.3% 0.4%
Foreign Policy 13.5% 33.6% 20.1%
6%
19%
8% 36%
15%
3% 13%
Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS
Middle Class Jobs/Economy
Budget/Deficit Obamacare
Foreign Policy
*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments *
100%
New Hampshire
9
Share of Voice – Key Issues
Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)
KEY FINDINGS:
People in New Hampshire discussed much
more about “Jobs/Economy” and much less
about “Foreign Policy” (+31.1% and -29.8%,
respectively). “Budget deficit” was the second
most discussed issue with 11.4% share of voice
(-10.2%).
• Obama: Obama led in volume this week
with over 1,000 mentions. He also led in
sentiment with a positive score of 1.7 (up
3.5). He received positive comments for his
health care plan and his plan for the middle
class.
• Romney: Romney had about 500 mentions
in New Hampshire this week. His Sentiment
Score improved a bit (up 2.5), but was still a
high negative number (-14.4). The negative
comments towards Romney came from his
aggressive foreign policies in the Middle
East and his poor Medicare program.
Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change
Obama 1.7 -1.8 3.5
Romney -14.4 -16.9 2.5
Current
Week
Previous
Week Change
Abortion/Choice 7.9% 5.2% 2.7%
Medicare/Social
Security 9.5% 7.4% 2.1%
Protecting the
middle class 6.3% 3.5% 2.8%
Jobs/Economy 53.2% 22.1% 31.1%
Budget deficit 11.4% 21.6% 10.2%
Obamacare 2.6% 1.3% 1.3%
Foreign Policy 9.1% 38.9% 29.8%
8% 10%
6%
53%
11% 3% 9%
Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS
Middle Class Jobs/Economy
Budget/Deficit Obamacare
Foreign Policy
*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments *
100%
Nevada
10
Share of Voice – Key Issues
Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)
KEY FINDINGS:
“Jobs/Economy” was also the hottest issue in
Nevada this week, after having a boost of
27.2% in share of voice. “Foreign Policy”
dropped by 23.0% in share of voice, depicting
the loss in popularity of this issue in Nevada.
• Obama: Obama led in volume this week
with over 2,500 mentions. He led in
sentiment as well, after having his Sentiment
Score increase by 0.4. Many Nevadans said
that Obama had failed the US economy.
• Romney: Romney received about 1,900
mentions this week. His Sentiment Score
decreased some, by 0.1. Nevadans this
week were highly concerned about
Romney’s ad, in which he noted that Jeep
was shipping jobs to China; Nevadans
criticized Romney for being a liar in the ad.
The candidate was also criticized for his
stance against abortion.
Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change
Obama -0.8 -1.2 0.4
Romney -6.8 -6.7 0.1
Current
Week
Previous
Week Change
Abortion/Choice 9.0% 5.0% 4.0%
Medicare/Social
Security 8.1% 13.3% 5.2%
Protecting the
middle class 5.8% 5.9% 0.1%
Jobs/Economy 50.8% 23.6% 27.2%
Budget deficit 12.8% 18.5% 5.7%
Obamacare 5.6% 2.8% 2.8%
Foreign Policy 7.9% 30.9% 23.0%
9% 8%
6%
51%
13%
5% 8%
Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS
Middle Class Jobs/Economy
Budget/Deficit Obamacare
Foreign Policy
Candidate Sentiment Score* by State
11
State Obama Romney
Current Week Previous Week Change Current Week Previous Week Change
Wisconsin 3.7 3.4 0.3 -4.8 -5.8 1.0
Virginia 1.9 -0.2 2.1 -11.3 -6.8 4.5
North Carolina 0.4 -0.7 1.1 -5.6 -7.2 1.6
Florida 0.1 0.8 0.7 -3.8 -5.2 1.4
Ohio -1.4 5.2 6.6 -5.1 -4.9 0.2
Colorado 0.5 -0.7 1.2 -4.5 -9.3 4.8
New Hampshire 1.7 -1.8 3.5 -14.4 -16.9 2.5
Nevada -0.8 -1.2 0.4 -6.8 -6.7 0.1
• Obama’s Sentiment Score was positive in most states (the exceptions were Ohio and Nevada). He led in
sentiment in all states.
• Romney’s Sentiment Score was negative in all states. Virginia and Colorado were the two states where
his score changed significantly (-4.5 and +4.8, respectively).
*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%
Share of Voice for Key Issues by State
12
State Abortion/
Choice
Medicare/
Social
Security
Protecting
the middle
class
Jobs/
Economy
Budget
deficit Obamacare
Foreign
Policy
Wisconsin 5.1% 12.9% 6.6% 37.6% 20.7% 6.3% 10.8%
Virginia 3.7% 17.0% 7.0% 35.3% 22.8% 6.0% 8.2%
North
Carolina 4.3% 15.4% 6.5% 44.3% 14.5% 5.0% 10.0%
Florida 6.6% 13.0% 6.6% 37.2% 19.2% 5.5% 11.9%
Ohio 7.7% 15.3% 7.4% 42.3% 12.5% 3.8% 10.9%
Colorado 6.4% 18.7% 7.9% 36.1% 14.5% 2.9% 13.5%
New
Hampshire 7.9% 9.5% 6.3% 53.2% 11.4% 2.6% 9.1%
Nevada 9.0% 8.1% 5.8% 50.8% 12.8% 5.6% 7.9%
• This week, “Jobs/Economy” returned to be the most popular issue in all eight states. On the other hand,
“Budget deficit” was most popular in Virginia, and “Medicare/Social Security” was most popular in
Colorado.
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