usb 3.0, pcie, hdmi, sata, mipi, ddrn,… winner & …...mhl (hdmi signaling / usb 2 connector)...
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IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest
USB 3.0, PCIe, HDMI, SATA, MIPI, DDRn,…
Winner & Loser in 2013
Dr Eric ESTEVE, Owner @ IPnest, Blogger @ Semiwiki
IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest
Interface IP Focus by Protocol…Why?
� Available data: IP vendor ranking by Revenue by “segments”… (PLDA classified as
a “Physical IP” vendor)
� What do you need when acting as:
� IP Product Marketing?
� Understand IP market dynamics by protocol and IP type to do business planning
� As a chip maker?
� Understand Interface Protocol dynamics to make the right investment
� Comprehensive competitive analysis: IP vendor by protocol (ranking is not
enough)
� IPnest addresses these needs since 2007 (Chip maker & IP vendor experience)
� Initially Protocol specific survey, then all Interfaces, adding today PHY IP and VIP
� Provide Ranking, Competitive Analysis, Market trend, Ecosystem analysis (MIPI)
IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest
World is Changing
Electronic moving to mobile
Mobile� End User want “sharing Experience”
� Increase needs for:
� In-System data Processing
� MIPI, DDRn, SSIC…
� Mobile Device level Storage
� SATA, NVMe, UFS…
� Device to Device data transfer
� HDMI, SSUSB, PCIe…
� Device to “cloud” data transfer
� 1G or 10G Ethernet…
� Networking & Backbone capabilities
� 40G/100G Ethernet, Interlaken,
Infiniband…
� Server Farm Data Processing & Storage
� PCIe SRIOV, SATAe, FC, NVMe…
IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest
� Interface Protocols Tends
� Storage: start moving from HDD to SSD
� SATA moves to SATA Express: SATA PHY support up to 6 Gbps, PCIe
PHY gen-3 (8 Gbps) & gen-4 (16 Gbps)
� Memory Controller: increase bandwidth while minimizing power
� Display: MHL & embeddedDP emergence
� Many News in Mobile: MIPI Alliance has closed several partnership
� JEDEC in June 2012 for Universal Flash Storage (MIPI M-PHY + UFS)
� USB-IF to support USB 3.0 (MIPI M-PHY + USB 3.0 Controller)
� PCI-SIG to support Mobile Express (MIPI M-PHY + PCIe Controller)
2011-2013
� Smartphone Shipments Explosion
� 2011: 450M, 650M+ in 2012, 850M in 2013…
� MIPI powered IC following
IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest
Winners
� External Display interfaces� HDMI de-facto standard (> 900 million ports shipped in 2012)
� DisplayPort finally consolidate in PC, emerge in Media Tablet (eDP)
� MHL (HDMI signaling / USB 2 connector) to replace HDMI in mobile
� Pervasion of MIPI DSI in Medical, Industrial
� Data Interface “commodity” USB 3.0
� Protocol standard Released in 2008 by USB-IF… PC chipset in 2012!
� 2012 was good for SuperSpeed USB IP vendors (50-70 design starts)
� Total USB IP sales (USB 2.0 and USB 3.0) in the $75-$80M range
� SuperSpeed USB IP revenue 95% growth ($24M)
� Total USB IP revenue growth 15%
IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest
Winners
� “Traditional” PCI Express
� PCIe penetration has been solid in PC, Embedded, Server, Networking, Test…
� PCIe gen-1 (2.5 G) in 2004 to gen-3 (8G) mainstream, expect gen-4 in 2015
� PCIe Youth Therapy (expect +50% more by 2017)
� Storage: SATA (> 6G) is now SATA Express, SSD � NVM Express
� Mobile: expect Media tablet & Smartphone integrating PCIe soon
IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest
Winners
� MIPI
� Initially a set of specification (chip to chip) addressing Mobile Phone
� Recently (2011) extended to any kind of Mobile, including PC & Media Tablet
� Industrial, Medical will use MIPI too!
� Partnership campaign run by MIPI Alliance to extend usage:
� M-PCIe, UFS, SSIC: all using M-PHY (today up to 5 Gbps, expected to go up to 16 Gbps)
2012/2010 growth rate is impressive (X4)…
… Surviving AP Chip Makers have MIPI future in hands, MIPI Alliance founding members:
TI, STM out of business, Motorola, Nokia sold & Intel Mobile post $600M/Q loss
IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest
Winners: Ethernet & VHS SerDes
� Ethernet for Networking
� 40 Gb and 100 Gb viable solutions
� Generate a specific SerDes IP business:� Ethernet PHY IP based on 10G SerDes, moving to 28 Gbps SerDes (25G) multi-standards
� MAC and PCS sold by very focused IP vendors
� Integrated into High End FPGA (Xilinx, Altera, Achronix) – Few ASSP (Gennum/Snowbush IP)
� Hybrid Memory Cube (HMC) consortium specifies next gen SR (28 Gbps) and USR (15-28 Gbps)
� Ethernet penetrate Automotive
� OPEN Alliance SIG Ethernet-based communication in automotive
� The first PHY for In-Vehicle-Networking will support 100MBit/s.
Ethernet & SerDes IP 2010 2011 2012 Share
MoreThanIP 4 5 6 15%
Synopsys 4 4 5 12%
Vsemi 1,5 4 6 15%
Avago tech. 2 4 6,5 6%
Snowbush 2,5 3 6 15%
Cadence 1,8 2,2 3,5 9%
Others 8,9 12,7 11,6 29%
Total ($M) 24,7 33,1 40,6 100%
IPnest plan to launch “Interface PHY & SerDes IP Market Survey” in November 2013
IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest
“Supreme” Winner… DDRn Memory Controller IP
� ASIC/ASSP design starts number decrease due to Development Cost (40, 28 nm or 20/14FF)
� SoC Design Start proportion increase SoC = CPU core + multiple IP + Logic
� CPU Frequency above 1 GHz, SDRAM data rate in the 1000 to 2000 Mbps
� Higher Frequency push using dedicated (hard) PHY instead of soft PHY
� Outsourcing trend is also increasing due to Controller higher complexity
� Net Result: More DDRn (LPDDRn) Memory controller to be integrated and outsourced
� DDRn IP market has grown from $22.5M in 2008 to $78M in 2012: 36% CAGR
0
50
100
150
200
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
DDRn Digital IP
DDRn PHY IP
Total ($M)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Synopsys Cadence ARM Others
(Virage)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest
Winners
� ARM Architecture is supplanting Intel x86
� CPU Roadmap only based on High Performance is no more effective
� Emerging Electronic need for High Performance AND Low Power
� We (and end-user) think now in term of Performance efficiency
� “MIPS per Watt” is the new performance metric
� End user think in term of battery life, SC industry have to minimize power
� Only true for Smartphone? …What’s about server farms?
IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest
Winners
New Comer: Network-on-Chip (NoC) or SoC Fabric
� Concept in 2005- Reality in 2012
� Massively used in large SoC to Interconnect IP blocks (60 in average in 2013)
� Becomes critical in Multi-CPU SoC to support cache coherency
� Mobile Application Processor, MMedia Proc., Network
Proc. Today… Microcontroller in the future
� NoC could become a Trojan horse
� Implement on Chip Power Management
� All functions are connected to NoC…
� Including Interfaces (PCIe, USB 3.0, DDRn, UFS…)
� What if NoC IP vendor could also support Interface IP?
� Or successful AP Fabless may decide to acquire NoC IP leader…?
IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest
PHY & SerDes IP is a winner
PHY
PMA Layer
(Ser/Des)
PCS Layer
(P&R Digital)
� State of the art: CMOS SerDes up to 28 Gbps
� Fast Moving Segment
� High Level Engineering required
� High Risk (Si Test Chip required), expect high ROI
� New comers: KoolChip, OmniPHY (US based), Silabtech
(India based)
� Acquired: Cosmic Circuit & PMC Sierra design team by
Cadence (2013), Vsemiconductor by Intel (2012)
� PHY IP vendor have been valuated at better price:
� Prism or Snowbush @$25M in 2008
� Vsemi @ $50M in 2012 ?
� PHY IP is strategic
“Interface PHY & SerDes IP Market Survey” to be released in November 2013
IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest
Losers
IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest
2008-2012
IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest
2013-2017 --- 11% CAGR
IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnestMarket Data based “Interface IP Market Survey 2008-2017" release 5
2008-2017 Consolidation
Expect almost 50% growth from 2012 to 2015!
IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest
Summary
� Top 3 EDA
� Mentor Graphics don’t target Interface IP when Synopsys consolidates
� Cadence has capitalized on Denali acquisition, will develop Cosmic Circuit and grow in IP
� Synopsys is harvesting a 10 years old investment…and still invest
� DDRn Memory Controller IP is already the largest Interface IP segment
� Express Everywhere (SATA, NVM, MIPI) source of Growth for IP vendors
� SerDes (PHY IP) is strategic…
� Large IDM (STM, Nvidia, AMD …) knew it… IP vendors now clearly understand it
� Will MIPI become preferred protocol for Mobile Application?
� Smartphone & Media tablet today, Industrial, Automotive or Medical tomorrow
� MIPI PHY supporting Storage (UFS), Express (M-PCIe), SS USB (SSIC) on top of legacy specifications
(CSI, DSI, DigRF V4…)
� Emerging vendor will come from India or China
� Cosmic Circuits has initiated the strategy to attack Interface IP by the PHY side
� But the market is consolidating in USA
IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest
Thanks!
"Interface IP Survey 2008-2012 Analysis, 2013-2017 Forecast" October 2013 (V5)
“PHY & SerDes IP Survey 2010-2012 Analysis, 2013-2017 Forecast" November 2013
“Verification IP Survey” (First Time ever VIP market evaluation) November 2013
“MIPI Ecosystem Survey “ (MIPI Alliance sponsored) & “MIPI IP Survey & Forecast” July2012
"PCI Express IP Market Survey" July 2013 (V4)- Sold to most of the IP vendors! Also: SATA, USB 3.0, MIPI
www.ip-nest.com IPNEST customer list:
Synopsys, Cadence, Mentor Graphics, Rambus,
Analog Bits, Arasan, Mixel, True Circuits,
NWLogic, MoSys, PLDA, Open Silicon,
eSilicon, GUC, Fujitsu, KSIA,
Intel, TI, LSI Logic, ST-Micro,
Sony, “Foundry” (…Denali, nSys, Evatronix, Inventure, Snowbush… )
IP Blogger on www.semiwiki.com best SC, EDA & IP Blogs are on SemiWiki
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