use of network patent analysis (npa) for advanced analysis of patent data creating business...

Use of Network Patent Analysis (NPA) for advanced analysis of patent data

Creating business advantage from patent insight

Mike Lloyd, Doris Spielthenner,

and George Mokdsi

5th June 2012

1. Introduction to NPA

Patents are becoming big business…

But which patents? It is self-evident that patents have a range of values..

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 50 100 150 200

Relative patent value (highest ranked patent = 100)

Patent ranking(1 = highest ranked patent)

Relative patent value distribution

Hybrid car patents (58,000 patents)Alzheimer's treatment patents (2152 patents)Smartphone patents (7093 patents)

NPA is based on patent citations

Patent citations

Each patent citation provides two powerful and valuable insights

1) Both patent applicants thought that the subject matter they filed their patents in was important and valuable enough to invest in a patent filing (whether the later applicant knew about the earlier patent or not)

2) Either the examiner or applicant for the later patent thought that the earlier patent was similar enough to disclose a similar feature. In other words, human intelligence has been used to make connections between patents.

Most patents have both forward and backward citations

Subject patent

Reverse or backward citations

Earlier patents considered to be similar

Forward citations

Later patents considered to be similar

Citations in turn lead to other citations..

US 54870691996

US 56129481997

US 56129481997

US 56129481997

And 79 other patents..

US 46792271984

US 46303141986

US 36050191971

US 48887671989

US 50955351992

US 51955761993

US 5283780,1994

US xxxx199x

US 56129481997

US 56129481997

Other citations

US 56129481997

US 56129481997

Other citations

But the sheer quantity of citation data can quickly overwhelm ….

NPA uses algorithms to identify the most connected patents, and then cluster and rank patents within these networks:

Image taken from a study of 9,000 smartphone patents

Cluster of related patents

And by doing so, summarising and learning from the collective wisdom* encapsulated in the whole of the citation data in the area you are looking at

* See Surowiecki, James: “The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations”, 2004.

Each cluster of patent filings shows an area of high popularity

• Blue – client• Red – competitor• Bigger dot = more influential patent/inventor• Thicker line = stronger relationship• Adjacent patents = more similar patents

Results are taken from an NPA analysis of 250,000 engineering patents

Each citation has a direction, which can provide information about technology development, or ‘knowledge flow’ between competitors

Does NPA work?NPA rankings gave better predictions of Alzheimers drug trial patents than other rankings based on any of:- Forward, backward or total citation count- Number of family members

DrugPatent

protecting drug

NPA rankin

gCount    Ranking based on number of (48,000

patents)

Forward citations

Forward citations per year

Backward citations

Total citations

INPADOC family

members

Forward citations

Forward citations per year

Backward citations

Total citations

INPADOC family

members

Bapineuzumab (Phase III

Alzheimers drug)

US7189819 1 14 1.6 304 318 395 ~5100 4942 93 95 308

Solanezumab (Phase III

Alzheimers drug)

US7195761 14 15 1.9 35 50 52 ~4800 3949 ~2750 ~3170 ~4400

Phase II trial Alzheimer's

drugUS7xxxxxx

~around 200th

18 0 0 18 ~30 ~37,000 ~21,400 ~4750 ~9830 ~12,000

Weighted forward citation arrows have correlated to successful litigation

Results are taken from an NPA analysis of 72,000 hybrid car patents

2. NPA in practice

Patent portfolio strength can be quantified, on a cluster by cluster basis

Up and coming patents can determined soon after filing, allowing analytical prediction of potential technology trends

Filing year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Leading smartphone of that year, (CNET, other sources)

Leading NPA patents in smartphone study filed in that year

US20060161871, Proximity detector in handheld device, Apple, NPA ranking = 2

US7764274, Capacitive sensing arrangement, Apple, NPA ranking = 4th equal,

US7812828, Ellipse fitting for multi-touch surfaces, Apple, NPA ranking = 9

US7479949, Touch screen device, method, and graphical user interface for determining commands by applying heuristics, Apple, NPA ranking = 146

US20090244031, Contact Tracking and Identification Module for Touch Sensing, Apple, NPA ranking = 424

USD628546. Mobile Phone, Samsung, NPA ranking = 624

Patent thickets can be quantified

Mining project

Mechanical engineering project

ICT project

Litigated smartphone technologies

Alzheimer's treatments

0 5 10 15 20 25

Largest cluster

2nd largest cluster

3rd largest cluster

Cluster densities: average relationships strength within clusters (patents < 20 years)

Relative technology turnover can be quantified

Mining industry project (n=4100)

Mechanical engineering project (n=7450)

Food industry project (n=24,000)

Smartphone - Touchscreens (n=8900)

Smartphone - Mobile data transmission (n=6500)

Smartphone - Mobile data access (n=12,800)

Alzheimer's drugs (n=17,800)

ICT project (n=21,100)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Average age difference between patents and their backward ci-tations in the same field (years)

'Patent turnover' - 9 out of 10 backward citations are younger than this (years)

Number of years between the publication dates of patents and their backward citations

NPA in software form

• Client studies currently undertaken using consulting model

• AmberScope’ is now in beta testing– Will provide interactive online view of patent landscape

around a nominated patent (‘houses in your street’)– Ask me during the seminar for a demonstration

• ‘AmberMap’ is being developed– Will provide an interactive online view of the patent

landscape in a technology (‘houses and suburbs in your city’)

– Similar to what has been presented today, but with new capabilities

• ‘Further products in pipeline• See www.ambercite.com for more information and

updates

www.griffithhack.com.au

Thank you for your time… any questions?

AmberScope (currently proof of concept)

Does NPA work? (1) Top ranked patent in 2011 NPA smartphone study independently favoured by leading smartphone patent wars commentator

• Florian Mueller, 14 January 2012, “fosspatents.blogspot.com” :

“…but it isn't nearly as essential to Apple's litigation strategy as ..: U.S. Patent No. 7,663,607 on a "multipoint touchscreen". The '607 patent is the broadest touchscreen-related hardware patent Apple has, and if the courts interpreted it as broadly as Apple would like them to, ..would be extremely hard to work around.”

3. Using NPA for advanced analysis of patent data

NPA is a unique means of clustering patents…

• Much more precise and reliable than IPC codes

• Avoids issues due to inconsistent choice of keywords, or keywords covering broad technical concepts

• Groups inventions together, not just technologies

NPA is a unique means of ranking patents

• Uses much more data than a simple forward citation count, in particular focusing on the broader picture

• Provides an indication of underlying patent quality that is more based on peer review than self-assessment (such as litigation measures or the size of the family)

• Compares patents against their closest competitors, not a broad field

Contents1. Why NPA? An introduction to Network Patent Analysis

(NPA)2. How NPA differs from other analysis techniques3. Using NPA for advanced analysis of patent data4. Summary and conclusions

Or even just to provide a unique perspective on individual patents

NPA data can provide a unique perspective on the likelihood of successful patent assertion

Lines showing citation linkages between cluster of Apple patents and asserted

Motorola patent

Cluster of Apple touch-screen smartphone patents

Too far?

Motorola touchscreen patent US 6,246,862, asserted against Apple