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UsingFutureScenariostoIdentifyPotentialLAMPandWatershedPlanningMeasuresforClimateChangeAdaptationalongLakeOntario:

STAKEHOLDERGENERATEDRECOMMENDATIONS

AReportforLakeandWatershedPlanners

23December2015NYSGI-W-15-001

Submittedby:Dr.KatherineBunting-Howarth,AssociateDirector,NewYorkSeaGrantDavidMacNeill,GreatLakesFisheriesandEcosystemSpecialist,NewYorkSeaGrantJessicaSpaccio,ExtensionSpecialist,NortheastRegionalClimateCenter,CornellUniversityDr.RebeccaSchneider,AssociateProfessor,CornellUniversity,DepartmentofNaturalResources.Dr.BrianWeidel,ResearchFisheriesBiologist,USGSBiologicalFieldStationDr.ArthurDeGaetano,Director,NortheastRegionalClimateCenter;Professor, CornellUniversity,DepartmentofEarthandAtmosphericSciences

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UsingFutureScenariostoIdentifyPotentialLAMPandWatershedPlanningMeasuresforClimateChangeAdaptationalongLakeOntario:

STAKEHOLDERGENERATEDRECOMMENDATIONS

AReportforLakeandWatershedPlanners

TableofContents

ExecutiveSummary……………………………………………………………………………………..Page3Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………………….Page4ProcessEmployed…………………………………………………………………………………………Page7StakeholderGeneratedRecommendations…………………………………………………..Page10PotentialNextSteps……………………………………………………………………………………...Page21Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………………………..Page22References……………………………………………………………………………………………………..Page23Appendices…………………………………………………………………………………………………….Page24Bunting-Howarth,K.,D.MacNeill,J.Spaccio,R.Schneider,B.WeidelandA.DeGaetano.2016.UsingFutureScenariostoIdentifyPotentialLAMPandWatershedPlanningMeasuresforClimateChangeAdaptationalongLakeOntario:StakeholderGeneratedRecommendations—AReportforLakeandWatershedPlanners.NYSGI-W-15-001.29pages.

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ExecutiveSummaryLakeOntario,thefourteenthlargestlakeintheworld,isavastgeographicalfeaturebutisneverthelessinfluencedbyhumanbehavior,asevidencedbychangesinnutrientconcentrationsandcycling,speciescomposition,andfoodwebdynamics.NutrientloadsandwaterclarityobservedinLakeOntariooverthepasttwodecadesillustratethepotentialforhumanbehaviortoinfluencethislargeandimportantecosystem.Whilescientistsworktounderstandhowtheecosystemhaschangedandanticipatefuturechanges,thereisaconcurrentneedtoeducateabroaderstakeholdergroupaboutfutureuncertaintiesintheecosystemandtheservicesitprovides(Walkeretal.2002).ScenarioPlanninghasproventobeausefultooltohelpprepareforuncertainfutures.Scenariosdevelopedwithmulti-disciplinaryinputrepresentplausible,butalternate,futureconditionsofasystemofinterest(Wack1985).Assuch,theycanprovideameansofunderstandingpotentialfutureimpacts,suchasthoserelatedtoclimatechange,andcanhelpdeveloplocal,adaptivedecision-makingtoreducetheseverityofthoseimpacts(Wack1985;Petersonetal.2003).In2012,NewYorkSeaGrantorganizedascenarioworkshop,fundedbytheGLRI(GreatLakesRestorationInitiative)asanexercisetoexplorepossiblescenariosforthefutureoftheLakeOntarioecosystemwithinputfromdiversestakeholders(WorkshopI).Twomaindriversofecosystemtrajectorieswereidentifiedclimateinducedprecipitationextremes,andhumandemographics.Fournarrativesdescribingthesefuturestatesweredevelopedandtheunderlyingconditionswereidentifiedbythegroup.

Thefouridentifiedscenarios(futurestates)wereasfollows.1. DrierClimate--SlowPopulationGrowth:“BoatlessLakeOntario”2. WetClimate--SlowPopulationGrowth:“RagingRunoff”3. DrierClimate--FastPopulationGrowth:“CrowdedBeaches”4. WetClimate--FastPopulationGrowth:“SoggyStripMalls”

WithfundingfromtheGreatLakesIntegratedScienceAssessmentprogram(GLISA),aniterativeapproachwastakentodevelopdraftrecommendationsforLakewideActionandManagementPlans(LAMP)(binationalplansdesignedspecificallyforeachofthefiveGreatLakes)aswellasforwatershedplannerstoconsiderwhenadaptingexisting(andnew)planstoaddressclimatechange.DuringtheMay2015workshop(WorkshopII),draftrecommendationsweresynthesizedfromdiversestakeholdersthatconsideredlongtermextremesinprecipitation(extremeprecipitationanddrought)andhumandemographics(slowandrapidpopulationgrowth)ascreatedinthescenarioworkshopinSeptember2012.Follow-upworkshopswereheldinthefallof2015(WorkshopsIII-AandB)togatherpublicinputonthesedraftrecommendations.Workshopsattendeesusedtheirlocalknowledge,beliefs,andopinionstorefineandprioritizepotentialmanagementandpolicyactionsthatwouldaddtothesystem’sresiliencyandbuffertheimpactoffutureuncertainties.Recommendationsgeneratedthroughtheprocessfallintofivemajorcategories:WaterResourceManagement;Infrastructure(Transportation,Drinking,WasteandStormwater);Water-DependentBusiness;LandUsePlanning,ZoningandGovernance;andEcosystem

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Management.Theserecommendationsweremadeacknowledgingpotentialbarrierstoimplementationsuchaslackoffunding,politicalwill,andunderstandingofpotentialfutureproblems.ThisreportisintendedforusebyLAMPandwatershedmanagersandplanners.Thepurposeofthisreportisnottobeprescriptive,buttoprovideastartingpointforplannerstousewhenengagingthepublicandincorporatingclimatechangeadaptationrecommendationsintoplans.IntroductionWithinthelastdecade,interestintheimpactsofclimatechangehassignificantlyincreased.Concomitantly,therehasbeenwidespreadrecognitionthatactionmustbetakentoreduceclimatechangeimpactsaswellastoadapttothepotentialchanges.Thedevelopmentofsector-specificadaptiveplanning,however,haslaggedbehind.Thiscan,inpart,beattributedtouncertaintyandthelackoffine-scaleclimateimpactprojectionsforlocalandregionallevelsasmostprojectionsareforbroadergeographicareas(Hayhoe,etal.2008).However,predictivemodelsevenatfinerscalesmayneverbecompletelyaccurateinforecastingfuturestates.Thus,toolstohelpunderstandandplanwithinthecontextofuncertaintyareneeded(Wack1985).ThenortheasternUS,aregionpredictedtoexperiencebothmorefloodingassociatedwithhighfrequencyrainfallsandmoredroughtsduetowarmingandlongerno-rainperiods(Kunkeletal.2014),isoneexamplehighlightingthechallengesofplanningunderpredictedhighvariability.Manytoolsareavailabletoassistcommunitiesinassessingtheirvulnerabilitiestotheimpactsofclimateintheareasofhumanhealth,infrastructure,ecosystems,andemergencyresponse,aswellasplanningstrategiesforadaptingtothechangingclimate.Althoughtoolsareavailable,informationfromprevioussurveysandstudiesacrossthenationcontinuetomakeusawarethatthereisstillagapbetweencommunities’awarenessoftheclimateandactualactiontowardadaptation.Infact,surveyscompletedintheGreatLakesregionthatweretargetedatlocalofficialsandlocalgovernmentstaff,clearlyindicatethatamajorityofcommunitiesintheGreatLakesregionarenotcurrentlyincorporatingclimateadaptationconceptsintotheirplanningprocesses,despitetheawarenessofcurrentandpotentialimpactsofthechangingclimate.(SeeNelson,Dawn,etal.2011.)Alternatively,scenarioplanninghasbeenidentifiedasausefulprocessthatcanhelporganizethinkingaboutuncertainfutures.Originallyusedbymilitariesandbusinesses,thescenarioplanningprocesshasbeenusedincreasinglyinsocio-ecologicalsettingssuchastheMillenniumEcosystemAssessmenthttp://www.unep.org/maweb/en/Scenarios.aspxandtheGreatLakesFuturesProjecthttp://uwo.ca/biology/glfp/.Thegreateststrengthoftheprocessishelpingadiverseaudiencerecognizewhatdifferentpeoplevalueabouttheirenvironment,inthiscaseLakeOntarioanditswatershed,andhowtheiractivitiescouldimpactthoseresources.Theprocessisflexible,butgenerallyisbuiltfromdialogbetweenmultiplestakeholdersfromdiversebackgrounds(suchasgovernment,scientists,businessowners,recreationalusers,

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environmentaladvocates,andothers).Thegoalsofthedialogaretodefinethe‘system’inquestion,theareaandresourcesthatarethetargetoftheexercise,andtoidentifythe‘drivers’,i.e.theforcesorkeyinfluencesthatwillmostlikelychangethesysteminthefuture.Projectinghowdriversmayunfoldgiverisetosimpleyetstrikingcontrastingfutures.Althoughsubjectiveinnature,the“projected”futurestateswhicharegeneratedshouldberealisticandequallyplausible.Participantsdevelopalternative,logicallyconsistentstories(notfancifulpredictions—butsimple“projections”)aboutthesystem’sfuturebasedonhowtheidentifieduncertaintiesmightunfold.Thesestoriesportrayboththepositiveandnegativeconsequencesofafuture30-40yearsawayandincludeeconomic,cultural,andecologicalelements.Arealstrengthofthisprocessisthat,becausethestoriesaredevelopedbyindividualswhoarefamiliarwiththesystem,thestoriesreflectlocalexperiences,becomemorebelievable,andareacceptedbytheparticipants.Apowerfullearningmomentresultswhenstoriesaresharedandworkshopparticipantsrecognizehowsimplebutuncertaincontrastingincidentscanleadtocascadingevents,resultingindrasticallydifferentfutures.Inaddition,thetoolcanbeusedtoassistinidentifyingtheactionsthatcanbetakentodaytohelpprepareforthesedifferentfuturesand,inturn,identifyactionswhichcanbenefitacommunitynomatterwhattypeoffuturearises.ScenarioDevelopmentforLakeOntarioInSeptemberof2012,adiversesetofstakeholdersmetfortwodaysattheCornellBiologicalFieldStationtoutilizethescenarioplanningprocesstoimagineandcreatefourdifferentfuturescenarios(30-40yearsout)forLakeOntarioanditscoastalcommunities(WorkshopI).Theworkshopinvolvedtwenty-fourdiversestakeholdersrepresentingresearchers,marinaoperators,fishermen,smallbusinessowners,anglingorganizations,countytourismandhealthdepartments,sport-fishingpromotion,charterboatindustry,cooperativeextension,Statewatershedmanagers,shorelinepropertyowners,countysoilandwater,non-profitgroups,andacademicsfromtheUnitedStatesandCanada(OntarioMinistryofNaturalResources).TheparticipantswereinvitedbyNewYorkSeaGrant’sRecreationalFisheriesSpecialist.Theinviteeswereselectedbasedonthediversityoftheirviewsandintereststhattheyrepresent.Inaddition,theywereselectedbasedonknowledgeoftheirabilitytoworkwellwithingroupsandnotdominateconversationsnorsimplyspeaktopositionstatementstotheexclusionofengaginginadialogue.Theinitialgoalofthisexercisewastoengagediverseparticipantsinadiscussiontoexchangetheirknowledge,opinionsandbeliefsonthedriversthatwillshapethefutureoftheecosystem.Thegroupchoseclimatechange(specificallyprecipitationchanges)andpopulationgrowthasthemajoruncertainties(drivers)fordesigningtheirnarrativesaboutfutureecological,social,economicandculturalstatesonLakeOntarioanditsbasin.ThefouridentifiedLakeOntariofuturesindependentlyidentifiedbythegroupswere:

1. DrierClimate-SlowPopulationGrowth:“BoatlessLakeOntario”2. WetClimate-SlowPopulationGrowth:“RagingRunoff”

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3. DrierClimate-FastPopulationGrowth:“CrowdedBeaches”4. WetClimate-FastPopulationGrowth:“SoggyStripMalls”

Schematicdiagramsrepresentingtheconditionsassociatedwitheachscenarioweredevelopedtohelpwiththevisualizationinsubsequentdialogs(Figurebelow).Thegoalofthe2015projectwastousethefourscenariosasatoolinsubsequentdiscussionsaboutrecommendationsforplanningandpolicydevelopmentforaddressinguncertaintiesrelatedtoclimatechangeandpopulationgrowth.ThisprojectwasdesignedtobuilduponWorkshopI,whichdevelopedthepreviouslydiscussedscenarios,asthebasisfordevelopingafirstroundofrecommendationsforLakeandWatershedmanagersofLakeOntarioanditswatershedstoconsiderwhenamendingandcreatingplanstoaddressclimatechange.Theprojectdesignincludedthreesubsequentworkshops:onewithinviteddiversestakeholders(WorkshopII)andtheothertwo(WorkshopsIII-AandB)inareastoattractdifferentsegmentsofthegreaterpublic.

IllustrationsbyBrianWeidelandMatthewPaufve,USGS

WorkshopIIwasdesignedtobeatwo-dayeventwhichwouldengagesimilar,andsomeofthesame,stakeholderswhoparticipatedinWorkshopI.Theprojectteamincludedmulti-disciplinarygroupsfromtheGreatLakesIntegratedScienceAssessments(GLISA),NortheastRegionalClimateCenter(NRCC),UnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey(USGS),CornellUniversityandNewYorkSeaGrant(NYSG).Inaddition,inordertoincreasethelikelihoodourfindingsbeingutilizedbystateagencies,weinvitedtheNYSDEC’sLakeOntarioLAMPWorkGroup

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representativetojoinourorganizationalmeetings.Ourteamincludedexpertsinextension,waterresourceexperts,fisheries,scenarioplanning,publicparticipationaswellasclimatechange.TheultimategoalofWorkshopIIwastohaveparticipantsidentifyasuiteofplanningactionsthatwere“win-win”,i.e.thatwould(a)addressissuesrelevanttomultiplestakeholdertypes,and(b)simultaneouslyhelptobufferpotentialimpactsfrommorethanoneofthefourfuturescenarios.ThefinalproductofWorkshopIIwasadeliberatedsetofstakeholderdrivenrecommendationsforupdatingtheLAMPandlocalwatershedplans,inordertoaddressclimatechangeandbecomemoreresilient.OncewesynthesizedthefindingsfromWorkshopII,weattemptedtoverifythesefindingsandascertaintheir“acceptabilityforadoption”throughreviewbytwoadditionalindependentgroupsofstakeholders.Thiswasaccomplishedthroughinvitingthepublictoattendtwoeveningworkshops(WorkshopsIII-AandB)indifferentareasoftheLakeOntarioBasin.Thisreportcontainsrecommendationsidentifiedas“win-win.”

ProcessEmployedParticipantsInvitationstoWorkshopIIweresentstartinginMarchandourintentwastoattractasmanyofthesamestakeholdersaspossiblefromthe2012workshop.Ourgoalwastoengageadiversesetofparticipants.Participantsincluded:planningagencies,federalandstateagencies,soilandwaterconservationdistricts,environmentalandsport-fishingorganizationsaswellascooperativeextensionagentsrepresentingagriculturalinterests.Unlikethefirstworkshop,welackedbusinessandtribalrepresentation.Presentations:MakingtheExtremesPlausibleTheNortheastRegionalClimateCenter,UnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey,NewYorkSeaGrantandCornellUniversityteammembersdraftedanddesignedpresentationswhichillustratedthesciencebehindtheextremesinprecipitationalongwiththepotentialimpactsontheecosystemandhumaninfrastructure.Forillustratingandexplainingprecipitationextremes,theteamdecidedtousespecifichistoricalexamples.Presentationshighlighteddatainmapsandchartsalongwithhistoricalpicturesofthoseextremeevents.Achartofobservedannualprecipitation,mapofobservedheavyprecipitationevents,andamapofprojectedwinterprecipitationchangewereincludedinthewetscenario.Amapofprojecteddrydays,amapofprojectedsnowcoverchange,andchartsofobservedandprojectedlakelevelwereincludedinthedryscenario.Thisuseof“real-world”data,not“pretend”informationgaveconsiderablecredibilitytothescenariosdevelopedandenhancedtheengagementofourstakeholders.EventsandpictureschosenvisualizedforworkshopattendeesthedryandwetscenariosandtheirimpactstheLakeOntariowatershed.

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Inasimilarfashion,teammembersfromCornellandUSGSprovidedexamplesofscientificallybasedbutdifferingpotentialimpactsoncoastalandupstreamwatershedhabitatsandwaterqualityinordertoensurethefourscenariospresentresourcechangesinsubstantiallydifferentways.Forexample,drierconditionscouldbeassociatedwithstreamandwetlanddry-outs,exposedshorelinesatmarinas,anddrywellswhereasgreaterprecipitationcouldbeassociatedwithflooding,sedimenterosionandpollution.Inthismanner,theparticipantscouldbrainstormandgeneratepotentialactionsthatcoverawiderangeoffutureecosystemchanges.Foreachscenariotheenvironmentalstressorswereexplainedaswellaspossibleopportunities.Picturesandimageswereincludedtosupporttheseimpacts.ExistingExampleClimateAdaptionActionSurveyshavefoundthatthemajorityofGreatLakesregionalofficialsandgovernmentstaffwerenotincorporatingclimateadaptationintoplanningprocesses,despitetheawarenessofcurrentandpotentialchangingclimateimpacts(SeeNelsonetal.2011).SeaGrantprogramsandregionalorganizationshavedraftedrecommendationsandconsolidatedcasestudiesandtools(see,forexample,Dinse.2009andwww.greatlakesresilience.org).Forthisproject,NYSGreviewedpeerandgrayliterature,webresources,andcontactsthroughoutthebasintoidentifyactivitiesthatotherGreatLakescommunitieshavetakentointegrateclimatechangeuncertaintyintotheirLAMPsorwatershedplans.This‘learningfromothers’approachpreventedduplicationofefforts.Thisworkwasconsolidatedintoaworkshoppresentationdesignedtojump-startparticipantbrainstormingaboutclimatechangeadaptationplanningapproacheswithexamplestrategiesusedinotherlocationsandinothersimilardocuments.WorkshopProcessWorkshopIIwasdesignedtoextendovertwodaysinordertogiveparticipantstimetoknoweachother,feelcomfortabletalkingandworkingtogether,andtogivethemtimetomulloverboththescenarioapproachitselfandtheactualscenariosforwhichplanningwastotakeplace.Inthisway,deeperthinkingwentintotherecommendations.Groupworkoccurredaroundeachofthescenariosandfollowedadiscussionguide.Attendeesweregivenhandoutsoftheirrespectivescenarios,includingdescriptiveartworkandmainpoints(SeeAppendixA.).Theessenceofthisexercisewasthateachgroupwaschargedtocreaterecommendationsforwhatdecision-makersshoulddoTODAYtopreparefortheassignedscenarioPOTENTIALFUTURE(notingthatourfocuswasonrecommendationsforLAMPandWatershedPlans.)Breakoutsessionsoccurredonbothdaysforatotalof3.5hours.Thekeyquestionswere:

• Whatdoyouthinkweshoulddotodaytobemorepreparedforthatpotentialfuture?• Whatarethebarrierstoimplementingthataction?Whatarewaysaroundthebarrier?• Whatarethesecondarybenefitsfromtakingthataction?

Afterthisroundofbrainstorming,thegroupswerereconvenedtosharerecommendations,identifybarriersandwaysofsurmountingbarriers.Thenextstepwascritical.Thelargergroupthenidentifiedcommonactions,missingtopics,andpotentialvenuesforpresentinginformationgeneratedattheworkshop.Theoutcomewasasetofstakeholder-driven

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recommendationsforupdatingtheLAMPandlocalwatershedplansthataddressclimatechangeandincreaseresiliency.Multiplerecommendationsweregeneratedthatcouldbegroupedintothefivebroadcategoriesof:waterresourcemanagement,infrastructure,planningandzoning,water-relatedbusinesses,andecosystemmanagement.Recommendationsalsoencompassedtypesofstrategiesrangingfromeducationtoregulations.Somepowerfulrecommendedactionswereidentifiedasprovidinggoodsolutionstoaddresstheextremesofallfourscenarios.Forexample,improvedcaptureofstormwaterrunoffwithincreasedinfiltrationandgroundwaterrechargewouldhelpreduceboththeproblemsoffloodinganddroughtsandincreasewateravailabilityforpopulationgrowth.Suchwin-winsolutionsrankhighpriorityforimmediateplanningaction.Otherrecommendationsofnoteincludeimprovedwaterandstormwatermanagement,increasedextentofriparianbuffers,wetlandandstreamhydrologyrestoration,infrastructureimprovementandrelocation;aswellassocialrecommendationsrelatedtogovernance,andlinkingjobtrainingtoenergyandenvironmentalactions.Wecreatedamatrixtomoreconciselypackagetherecommendedactions,implementationmechanisms,andopportunitiesforovercomingbarrierstoimplementation.Thecolumntitlesaretherecommendationcategoriesbytopicareaandtheitemsalongthesidepresentpotentialmethodsforimplementationand/ortoolsforovercomingbarrierstoimplementation.(SeeAppendixB,Summaryof“Win-Win”Recommendations.)

InNovember2015,thefinalseriesofpublicengagement,WorkshopsIII-AandBwereheldatoppositeendsoftheLakeBasin.Theaudienceconsistedofinterested(anddiverse)membersofthepublicthatincludedlakesideresidents,environmentalactiongroups,anglers,boaters,statelegislator,environmentalmanagementagencies,waterqualitycoordinatingcommittees,andotherconcernedcitizens.Forbothoftheseworkshops,openpublicattendancewasthefocus,ratherthantheinvited-onlystakeholderfocusofthefirsttwoworkshops.Theseworkshopswereorganizedtogatherpublicinputontheserecommendationstobepresentedtostateandfederalagenciesonhowtoaddressuncertaintiesrelatedtoextremeweatherpatternsandpopulationchangeinlakeandwatershedmanagementplans.WorkshopsIII-AandBwereheldinverydifferentpartsofthewatershed(RochesterandWatertown)andscheduledforeveninginthehopethatamorediverserepresentativepubliccouldattend.Apressreleasewasgeneratedwhichwaspickedupby28localpapersandothermediaoutlets.Inaddition,theGreatLakesInformationNetworkwasusedtopublicizetheworkshopsaswellastheemaillistfortheGreatLakesActionAgendaheldbyNYSDEC.TwitterandFacebookwerealsoused.WorkshopsIII-AandBweredesignedtobrieflysharetheuncertaintiesrelatedtoprecipitationduetoclimatechangeanditsimpactsonoursocioecologicalsystemandthenpresentthesynthesizedrecommendationsfromtheMayworkshop.Thegroupwasgivenaboutanhourtorotatethroughfivestations.Eachstationhaditsowntheme:waterresourcemanagement,infrastructure,water-dependentbusiness,landuse/zoning,andecosystemmanagement.Ateachstation,groupswereaskedtodiscusstheactionsandaddtoormodifyexistingactionsorrecommendations.Flipchartsandmarkerswereagaintheprimarytoolforgatheringinput.Postersoftherecommendationsummarytableweremadeanddisplayedateachstation.At

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theconclusion,thegroupswereaskedtoprioritizeallofthepresentedrecommendations.Theyusedstickydotstodenoteonerecommendationateachstationtheyfeltwasthebest.Overall,WorkshopsIII-AandBvalidatedthekeyactionitemsidentifiedinWorkshopII.TheprioritizationexercisehighlightedactionswithineachofthecategoriesidentifiedinWorkshopII(waterresourcemanagement,infrastructure,planningandzoning,water-relatedbusinesses,andecosystemmanagement).Inaddition,WorkshopsIII-AandBhighlightedadditionalareasforinquiry,suchasmanagementofonsitewastewatertreatmentanddisposalsystems.

StakeholderGeneratedRecommendationsBelowaretherecommendationsgeneratedbystakeholderswhoparticipatedintheworkshops.Giventhetimeavailableduringtheworkshop,theycoverabroadrangeoftopics,generally,andreflectthetypeofactionsthisdiversestakeholdergroupfeltwouldbeappropriateforaddressingbothextremesassociatedwithclimatechangegeneratedprecipitationandpopulationgrowth.Readersofthisreportmayhaveadditionalinformationandknowledgebeyondthatoftheworkshopparticipants,suchasexistingrequirements,newinitiativesandothernuanceddetails.However,theserecommendationsaresignificanttoallreadersastheyillustratethewealthoflocalknowledge,localprioritiesandaneedformorepublicengagementandeducationrelatedtopotentialimpactsofuncertainfuturesonlakeandwatershedresources.WaterResourceManagementRecommendedAction#1:Providestormwaterstoragefeatures(bothnaturalandman-made)tohaveamoreconsistentwatersupplyduringdroughts(sourceofsupply)whileprovidingsomefloodmitigationandstorageduringwetperiods(sourceofasink).DiscussionThisactionistargetedatstormwatermanagementpractices.Manytimesthefocusonstormwateroccursduringweteventsandthus,manyoftherecommendationsareforthesetypesofprecipitationevents.However,stormwaterfeaturesthatretainwatercanbehelpfulfordroughtsituations.Potentialresponsestothisrecommendationcouldincludetheuseofretention/detentionpondsandrechargestructureswhereapplicable,aswellasothergreeninfrastructureapproaches.Theuseofstormwaterstructuresforstoragewillallowwatertobeavailableindrytimes.Suchstructurescouldbeusedforresidentialandagriculturalwatersupplyneeds.Barriers

• Knowledgeofhowtocorrectlybuildandmaintain• Costs• Publicdislikeforlocatingwaterstoragenearhomes• Childsafety• Locating,developingandbuildingretentionstructures• Appropriatetechnologyandengineeringspecificationsforstructurecapacity

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PotentialSolutions• Educationofthepublicandsomestakeholdergroupsabouttheneedandbenefitsofthese

structurescouldgenerategrassrootssupport• Cost/benefitanalysisorothereconomicstudiescouldmoreclearlyillustraterelativebenefits• Enlistingthesupportof,andworkingcloselywith,engineersandclimatologistscouldleadto

moretechnicalinformationforsitinganddesigning• Outreach• Usepublicareas,easementsandlandtrusts• Improveturfmanagementandothervegetativeapproachestocontrollingandstoringwater

RecommendedAction#2:Managestormwaterforwaterqualityandbeneficialuse.DiscussionStormwatermanagementwasdiscussedbyallgroupsinallextremes.Thisrecommendationfocusesonenhancingwaterqualityofstormwater.Itcallsforimprovedstandardsandtechnologyforstormwatermanagementespeciallyinareaswhereexistingstormwaterregulationsarenotapplicable.DuringWorkshopIII,aparticipantarguedthatthefloodingandwaterqualityissuesattheLake’sedgecouldnotbeaddressedwithoutalsopayingattentiontolanduseandstormwateractivitiesintheheadwaters.Unintendedbenefitsincludepublicgreenspace,healthystreamsandwetlands,reducederosion,improvedsoilhealth,andimprovedpublichealthandsafety.Barriers

• Lackofpoliticalwilltoexpandcoverage,strengthenand/orenforcestormwaterregulations• Neednewandimprovedengineeringtechnologyandstandards• Needtoupdatebestmanagementpracticesandregulations• Needmorefundingforimprovingongoinglong-termmanagementoversightand

implementation• PoliticsaredrivenbydownstateNewYork• Zoninglawswhichallowbuildinginhighriskareas

PotentialSolutions

• Educationandoutreachprogramsforthepublicaswellasspecificstakeholdergroups• Publicandprivatepartnershipstocreateimprovedstandardsandpractices• Createstormwatermanagementpartnershipsbetweenlakefrontpropertyownersandup-

streamfarmersfacilitatedbyactionfromtowns,countiesandothermunicipalitiesinordertobettermanageandinvestinwatermanagementand/orstormwatercontrols

• Researchrelatedtothepractices• Useinter-municipalagreementsonlargerscaleandmoveresourcesupanddownstreamto

investinsolvingproblemsonawatershedbasis• Increasefundingforcommunitygroups,watershedgroups,countyenvironmentalmanagement

councils,waterqualitycoordinatingcouncils,etc.toimplementon-the-groundwaterqualityprojects

RecommendedAction#3:Considerappropriateallocationandvaluationofcleanwaterresourcesthroughoutthebasin.DiscussionComprehensivewaterusepolicyisneeded.ExistingregulatorywaterwithdrawalprogramsareactiveinNewYorkbutonlyforsystemswhichhavethecapacitytoextract100,000gallonsperday

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ormore.Localgovernmentsshouldconsiderchargingforthetruecostofcleanwater.Ifgovernmentsand/orbusinessesmoveclosertovaluingwaterattruecostrates,watermanagementmayimprove.Barriers

• Lackofwatershedgroupsadvocatingforthepractice• Waterisnotpricedsoastoreflectthetruecostofmaintainingapotable,sustainablesupply• Noseverancetaximposedonwaterasonothernaturalresources(oil,gas,etc.)• Lackofpoliticalwill• Needtoprotectthepolitically/economicallydisadvantaged

PotentialSolutions

• Educationandoutreachtothepublicandtargetedstakeholdergroups• Learnfromtrendsinourhistoricuse• Semanticsofhownewallocationruleswouldbepresented• Researchontherealcostsofprovidingcleanwater• Encouragepublicprivatepartnershipsandcollaborations• Usecapitaluseplans• Protectwatersupply;moreemphasisonwaterconservation/use• Meterwater,includingbothpublicsuppliesandwells,tobetterunderstandusage• Taxchargeforuseandextractionoftheresource

RecommendedAction#4:Enhancewaterandenvironmentalqualitymonitoringprogramsforwaterwaysthroughimprovedcollaborationandpublicinvolvement.DiscussionMonitoringisrecognizedasacriticalelementforsuccessfulpreparation,planningandadaptationtoclimatechange.However,monitoringprogramsareunderfundedandneedtobeimprovedbyextensivenetworking.Monitoringeffortsshouldbecomprehensive,coveringmanypartsofthewatershed.Thisitemwasprioritizedatthefollow-upworkshops.Barriers

• Capacityoftheactivity(whethergovernment,academicorvolunteermonitoring)• Fundingavailabilityfortheactivity• Needtosynthesizedataandidentifywhereprogramsaremostneededsothateffortsarenot

duplicatedPotentialSolutions

• Governmentshouldpartnerwithschoolsandstudentconservationgroupstoexpandcapacityandcoverage

• Expandcapacity,outreach,andsupportforexistingpublic/privatecollaborativeeffortssuchasCSLAPandWAVE

• Enhancedvolunteerprograms(includingK-12)withproperqualityassurance/qualitycontrolprocedures

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Infrastructure(Transportation,Wastewater,Drinkingwater,Stormwater)RecommendedAction#5:Defineandprioritizeneededinfrastructureupgradesandimprovementsformaintainingorenhancingwaterquality,including(wherepossible)movingcriticaldrinking,wastewater,andtransportationinfrastructureoutoffloodplains.

DiscussionThisactionaddressesamonumentaltaskofassessing,prioritizingandupgrading(orevenrelocating)infrastructurewhichsupportsourtransportationsystemaswellaswatermanagementsystems.Muchofourtransportationnetworkincludesextensive,minimallymanagedroadsideditchnetworksandculvertswhicharenowundersizedduetochangesinupstreamlanduseaswellaschangesinfrequencyandintensityofseverestormevents.Insomeinstances,theincreaseduseofgreeninfrastructurecanassistinsomewatermanagementissues.Thisrecommendationalsoaddresseswastewatertreatmentplants,septicsystems,therepairofallaginginfrastructure,anddealingwithleaksinallofthesesystems.Theconstructionandmaintenanceofstormwatercontrol/preventionsystems,improvementofpublictransportation,andrelocationofwastewatertreatmentanddrinkingwaterplantsoutoffloodplainscouldbeincludedinthisaction.Anunintendedbenefitisefficiencyandbenefitstogreenenvironments.DuringWorkshopIIItheexpenseofinfrastructurerelocationwasstressedasanissueandapotentialsolutionwasnotedastheimplementationofbermsandotherphysicalpracticestoprotectexistinginfrastructureinvulnerablelocations.Barriers

• Lackofconsensusonhowtoprioritizeneedswithinandbetweenthesectors• Fundingforinfrastructureimprovements• Technicalexpertiseandfundingislackingforinspectionandengineering• Differencesinmanagementduetohomerulemaydiscourageprioritizationandefficiencies• Nostatelevelcoordination

PotentialSolutions

• Educatethepublicandfacilitatecross-municipalboundarydiscussions• Provideeconomicanalysesondifferentscalestoassistdecision-makers• Enactgrowthboundaries• Increaseconnectionswithschools,vocationaltech• Createjobs,labor• Developwaterdistricts• Improveinspectionandmaintenanceoperations• Developincentivesforinter-municipalcooperationinwatershedmanagement• Encourageserviceagreementsamonglocalgovernmentsandpoolresourcesaccordingly• Developusesforwastewater• RealignFEMAreimbursementforreplacementcosts(astheexistingprogramsdonotallowfor

improvementjustreplacement)RecommendedAction#6:Sitealltypesofinfrastructure(drinkingwater,wastewater,transportation)inordertopromotesustainablecommunitygrowth.DiscussionThisrecommendationurgesgovernmentstoplaninfrastructureforgrowthsuchthatpublicinfrastructure(suchaswaterandsewer)areprovidedinareastargetedforgrowththusavoiding

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inadvertentbuildingboomsduetotheprovisionofpublicservices.Proactiveplanningwouldprepareforinfrastructureexpansionaheadofgrowth.Thiswouldallowinfrastructuretobeproperlyupdatedasitisbuiltandimproved,removingtheneedforcostlyexpansionsinthefuture.Thoughtfuldecisionscanbemaderegardinglocationsastoavoidbuildinginvulnerableareas.Barriers

• Lackofdata(water,population,androadconditions)• Lackofflexiblepolicies• Reactivepolicies• Homerulepreventsconsideringgrowthplansacrossgovernments• Lackoflocalcontractorswithexperienceingreeninfrastructuretechnology

PotentialSolutions

• Improvedatamanagement• Developproactiveandflexiblepolicies• Encourageregional/metropolitaninter-municipalcooperationandcollaboration

RecommendedAction#7:Developdesignstandardsandalternatesystemsspecificationforgreeninfrastructure,alternatetransportationmodes,alternativeusesandtreatmentofwastewaterandotheralternativeformsofinfrastructure.DiscussionCarefulconsiderationforalternativeusesofwastewaterareneeded.Thisactionincludestheneedfornewandfrequentlyupdateddesigncriteria,proactivegrowthmanagementandplanning(prepareinfrastructureandlanduseinadvanceofpopulationboom),openspaceplanning,selectiveuseoftollroadsandmasstransitalternatives.Unintendedbenefitsaremoreefficient,fasterfixesandapossibledecreaseintaxes.OncereviewedduringWorkshopIII,morebasicrecommendationswereaddedsuchassepticsystemmaintenanceandinspections,enforcementofexistingandnewstandardsaswellasreducingcombinedandsanitaryseweroverflow,andconnectingcommunitiesthroughgreenways.Barriers

• Lackofengineeringknowledge• Lackofstandardsandspecifications• Funding

PotentialSolutions

• Requirecontractorstolearnaboutgreeninfrastructureaspartoflicensingandcertifications• Givebusinessesincentivesforinstallinggreeninfrastructure• Consideradding“energy”infrastructure(couldprovidefuturesavings)

LandUsePlanning,ZoningandGovernanceRecommendedAction#8:Encourageandpromotetheuseofopenspaceforwaterrechargeandstorage.Discussion:Thisrecommendationpromoteslanduseplanningandzoningwhichkeepswateronthelandscapeandpromotesthecreationandprotectionofopenspace,greenspace,andforestareasto

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protectwaterqualityandeaseflooding,increaseswaterinfiltrationandgroundwaterstorage,andincreaseswatershedreforestation.Thiscouldbeaccomplishedthroughcreatingspecialmanagementareastoprotect/maintainwetlandsandstreamcorridorsandreturnfloodplainstonaturalconditions.Thisissuewasprioritizedatthefollow-upworkshops.Unintendedbenefitsareerosioncontrol,lessrunoff,moregreenspace,moreinfiltration,reductioninpropertydamageandanincreaseinpublicsafety.Barriers

• Reluctancetochange• Needatimelineforshiftoflandscapetoopenspace• Landownerrightsandperceptionsofthesefacilities• Lackofpoliticalwilltorequireopenspace• Lackoffunding

PotentialSolutions

• Education,outreach,andcollaboration• Createfinancialincentivesthroughtaxesorgrants• Buildflexibilityintoregulatoryprocesses• Morelandbankingordevelopmentrightsprograms

RecommendedAction#9:Revitalizetheurbancoretoconcentratethepopulationandreduceinfrastructurecost.DiscussionThisactionincludesencouragingdevelopment/redevelopmentinexistingurbanareas,makingtheurbancorebetter,notjustcitiesbutalsohamletsandvillages.Thiswillreduceinfrastructuremaintenanceandreduceinfrastructureneedsfornewerdevelopmentinruralareas.Barriers

• Continueddevelopmentofnew“bedroom”communities• Needjobsintheurbanareas• Culturalbarriers• Imbalanceofpoliticalwill

PotentialSolutions

• Beginbybringingthosewithlimitedmobility,suchastheelderly,andbuildademandforhumanservices(retail,medical,dental)intheurbancore

• AllowfordenserpopulationsinhamletsRecommendedAction#10:Discourageandphaseoutdevelopmentinareasvulnerabletoflooding.DiscussionThisincludesbetterlocalplanningandfloodplainmanagementthatdiscouragesdevelopmentinfloodproneareaswhilemaintainingnaturalflowregimesofriversandstreamsandreducingrisk.Unintendedbenefitsareflourishingfishandwildlife,improvedbiogeochemicalprocesses,andreconnectinghumanswithnature.

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Barriers • Currentzoninglawsdonotadequatelypreventdevelopmentinfloodplains• Propertyrightsadvocatesmayopposeanymovementtorestrictdevelopmentrights,evenfor

legitimatepublichealthandsafetyandenvironmentalreasons• Inabilityofpropertyownerstomove• Propertytaxissues• Existingpublicinfrastructure,includingroadstotheseproperties• Lackoffundingtomovepeopleoutofthoseareas• Psychologicalunwillingnesstomove• Subsidedfloodinsurancesupportslivinginareasinhighriskofflooding

PotentialSolutions

• Reassesspropertyvalueswithrisksinmind• Improvezoninglawstoreducedevelopmentinfloodplainsanddiscouragefuturedevelopment• Uselandtrustsandeasementprogramstopreventdevelopmentorredevelopment• StrengthenFEMAcommunityratingsystem(educationandfundstomove)• Useaphasedapproach(nonewbuildings)topreventingnewdevelopmentandthencurtailing

redevelopment• Increaseinsuranceratestodissuadeadditionalbuilding• Encouragelandswapsbecauseoftrueregionalplanning• Usetaxincentivestogetpeopleoutofhighriskareas

RecommendedAction#11:Promoteappropriateuseofbrownfieldsandrestorationwherepossibleinordertoimprovetheenvironmentandtheeconomy.DiscussionTheuseofbrownfieldsnotonlycleansuptheimmediatearea,improvingthelocalenvironmentandpotentiallyreducingcontaminantsinrunoff,butalsoallowsotherspacetoremainundeveloped,green,andopen.Thecleanupandredevelopmentofbrownfieldscreatesjobsandmayincreasenearbypropertyvalues.Barriers

• Facilitatinginfrastructureisnotready• Group’slackofknowledge• Funding

PotentialSolutions

• GrantsandlowinterestloansavailablefromEPA’sBrownfieldsprogram• TechnicalassistanceandjobtrainingfromEPA’sBrownfieldsprogram

RecommendedAction#12:Mitigateimpactsofclimatechangeonvulnerablepopulationsbyprovidingadditionaltransportation,infrastructure,andeducationresourcesforthesegroups.DiscussionClimatechangedisproportionatelyaffectselderly,young,sick,disabled,andlow-incomepeople.Thesepopulationsneedeasilyaccessibleassistancefromsocialservicedepartments.Sustainablecommunitiescanbesupportedbyagriculturallandandcommunitycooperation.Freeand

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reliablepublictransportationcanprovideaccesstojobs,schools,andmedicalservicesforthosewhocannotaffordtheirowntransportationorwhoareunabletodrive.Thisalsotiesintothetransportationrecommendationofalternatetransportationmodes;betterpublictransportationwillbenefitthecommunityasawhole.Educationandtrainingforexistingjobscancreateneededemployeesforupdatinginfrastructure.Barriers

• Funding• Lackofcoordinationofcommunityandgovernmentprograms

PotentialSolutions

• Bonds,grants• Educationandoutreach• IncreaseresourcestoDepartmentofSocialServicesOfficeoftheAging,emergingtechnology

andmedicalservices• CreatepartnershipsamongDSSprogramsanddepartments• Designsustainablecommunities

RecommendedAction#13:PlanningandzoningshouldincorporateprinciplesofEcosystemBasedManagement.DiscussionWatershed,wildlifeandotherhabitats,sourcewaterprotectionareas,andothernaturalboundarieswouldbeusedasabaselinefordevelopingplanningandzoningrules.Ecosystemservices(AKAsocietalbenefitsfromhealthyenvironments)suchasbiodiversity,waterquality,floodcontrol,waterretention,soilconservation,erosioncontrol,etc.wouldbeusedindecision-makingatthelocallevelforplanningandzoning.Somecommunitiesalreadyusethesecriteriatoscoredevelopment(naturalcapitalscore)duringtheirapprovalprocesses.Thisadditionalrecommendationfromthefollow-upworkshopwassharedbyseveralattendees.Inaddition,StateParkDepartmentcandemonstratevariouspracticesonpubliclandswhichwillachievethesegoalsinordertoprovethattheconceptswork.Inaddition,landcanbeconservedthroughhavingworkingforestconservationeasementson“smaller”privatewoodlots.Barriers

• Existingassumptionsinplanningmaypreventthisapproach• Naturalfeaturesmaynotalignwithmunicipalboundaries

PotentialSolutions• Considerregionalapproachestogovernance• UsemoreofaCouncilofGovernmentsapproach

Water-DependentBusinesses(Agriculture,Tourism,RecreationalBoating&Fishing)RecommendedAction#14:Integrateagriculturalpracticeswithenergyproduction(suchasbiomassenergy).DiscussionTheagriculturalindustryhasahistoryincreatingvalue-addedproducts.Newtechnologiesinthesectoralreadyexist,suchasbiofuels.Investmentinthecreationofevenmoretechnologieswhich

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createmultiplebenefits,especiallyfromwastes,willmakethewatershedmoreresilientinthefuture.Bettermanagementofagriculturalwastesfromlargerdairieswillreducewaterqualityrisksandimproveaesthetics(reducenutrientrunoffandassociatedimpactssuchanuisanceand/orharmfulalgalblooms).Barriers

• Costofconstruction• Lackofproventechnology• Accessibilitytofinancingandtechnology• Licensingofnewfacilities• Decommissioningofexistingfacilities

PotentialSolutions

• Needagriculturalandelectricalengineeringexpertise• UseBOCESinstructorsandstudentstotrainonnewtechnology• Incomefrompotentialwaterandenergysavingsandenergygeneration• Providefarmerswithincentivestoimplementbestpractices

RecommendedAction#15:Promoteresearchanddevelopmentofnewagriculturaltechnologiesaswellasnewindustriesandjobsrelatedtothesetechnologies.DiscussionThisactionincludespromotingresearchanddevelopment,updatingbestmanagementpractices,reducingimpactsontheenvironment,andcreatingeconomicbenefitfromfarm-wasteandbiomassenergyprojects.Therecommendedactionsupportsanincreasedfocusontechnologydevelopmentrelatedtoagriculture.Investinginresearchanddevelopmentfornewtechnologieswhichwouldprovidefarmerswithevidence-basedinformationthatnewapproachesarebeneficialandcosteffective.Inaddition,theresearchfindingsshouldbedemonstratedinthefield.Demonstrationprojectsshowinghowpotentialnewcropsandcrop-relatedtechnologiesworkwouldprovidegrowerswithprovenmodelssuitableforchanginggrowingconditions.Unintendedbenefitsofthisactivityaremoreefficientuseoflandandenergy,increaseinjobsandchangeinjobstructuretomoreeconomicallyviablejobs.Barriers

• Fundinglimitedforresearchandstart-upbusinesses• Comfortandperceivedreducedriskincontinuingtousetestedtechniquesandpractices

PotentialSolutions

• Costsharingofnewimplementationpractices(example:Methanedigestersonlivestockmanure,biomassenergy,moreclimateresistantcrops)

• Usepublicand/orprivatefundingfornewtechnologyresearchand/ordemonstrationprojects• Educationandoutreachforthepublicalongwithcollaborationwithpublicandprivatesectors• Regulatoryreformtoallowfornewpractices• AmendFarmBilltomeetsustainablefarmingneedsthroughnewtechnologiesandpractices

RecommendedAction#16:Considerencouraginggreenhouseproductionofagriculturalproductstoexpandindustry.

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DiscussionEvenindrytimes,ourregionwilllikelyhavemorewaterthanotherpartsofthecountry.Enhancingcontrolledenvironmentalagriculture(greenhouses)canmaintainagriculturalproductionintheregionandaugmentproductionofsomecrops.AsplaceslikeCaliforniaexperiencemoredroughtsandhaveareducedcapacitytoproducecropssuchastomatoesandspinach,NewYorkcanbenefitbyutilizinggreenhousestogrowthesetypesofcropsirrespectiveoftheseason.Barriers

• Fewloansavailableforthispractice• Researchneededonbestpracticesandsustainabletypesofstructuresforourarea(heavy

snowfalls,frequentcloudcover);energyintensive• Shiftsinclimate(increasedintemperatures)mayreducetheneed

PotentialSolutions

• Governmentprogramsforloans• Educationandoutreach• Federalandstatecost-shareandgrants• Relyonourclimatologistsforpredictingshiftsinclimate

RecommendedAction#17:Enhanceresiliencyofrecreationandtourismindustriesbyplanningforincreasedclimatevariability.DiscussionWarmertemperaturewillleadtoachangeinicecover,snowversusrain,andwarmerwatertemperatures.Icefishingandsnowsportsmaygivewaytolongerfishingandboatingseasons.Existingrecreationandtourismbusinesseswillneedtoprepareforthesechanges.Increasedrecreationopportunitiessuitabletobothwetanddryconditionswillhelpmaintainahealthyeconomicenvironmentaslongasweensurepublicaccesstowater.Focusingonenvironmentally-basedtourismsimultaneouslyincreaseseconomicvitalityandfostersmoreresilientlandscapes.ThisrecommendationalsocouldsupportanewNationalMarineSanctuaryfortheLake.Barrier

• FundingforindustrypromotionPotentialSolutions

• Raisefundsforinvestmentthroughsellingthewater• Makeconnectionswithcommunityleaders• Incomefromtourism• Increaseuseofunder-utilizedbywayssuchas(Seawaytrail,N.Adirondacks,Olympicandblack

rivermaple)asamethodtoincreasetourismRecommendedAction#18:Supportfisheriesmonitoringandresearchtoprovideinformationtoguidestockingdecisionsinachangingclimate.DiscussionClimatechange,especiallyincreasesintemperatureandchangesinprecipitationpatterns,mayimpactwhichfishspeciesorstrainsarebestsuitedtoliveandbreedinLakeOntario.Continued

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(andimproved)supportoffisheriesmonitoringandresearchisneededtoprovidereliableinformationforresponsivemanagementdecisionsregardingfishstockinginachangingclimate.Barriers

• Fundsforresearch• Newequipmentforhatcheriestoraisedifferentspecies

PotentialSolutions

• Protectandenhancein-lakeandspawninghabitatsformultiplespecies,andencouragenatural(wild)reproductionofsportfish.

• Diversifypreyfishandsportfishpopulationsbysupportingrestorationofnativespecies.EcosystemManagementRecommendedAction#19:Restoreandprotectstreamsandwetlandsthroughoutthebasin.DiscussionRestoringthehydrologyofthebasinwillhelpintimesofdroughtorflooding.Therecommendationcallsforprotecting,enhancing,andrestoringthenaturalhydrologicregimeofstreams,lakes,wetlands,riparianbuffers,uplandareasofwatersheds,andotherareastorestorehydrology.Unintendedbenefitsofimplementingthisactioncouldbeimprovedfishandwildlifehabitat,reducedalgalblooms,increasedcommunityresilience,improvedresidentqualityoflife,improvedbiogeochemicalprocesses,reducedmosquitopopulationsandrelateddisease,andincreasedreconnectionofhumanswiththeirnaturalenvironment.Barriers

• Expense,limitedfunds• Propertyownersmaynotsupportrestorationorprotectionmeasures• Zoningmayencouragelossordegradationofthesefeatures• Publicresistance/perceptiontochangesinthewetlandsandstreamcorridors• Lackofcurrentregulationfortheamountofwaterextractedfromgroundwaterwhichfeeds

streamsandwetlandsPotentialSolutions

• Educationandgrassrootssupport• Increaseunderstandingofthelinkbetweenhealthystreamsandwetlandsandarobust

economy• Economicanalysesmayshowbenefits• Monitorandinventorycurrentwatershedresources• Determinevalueofnaturalresources• Provideincentivesforhomeowners/privatepropertyownersforprotectingthesefeatures

throughdevelopingaprogramthatpaysforecosystemservices• Watershed-basedgovernancewouldprotectthesefeatures

RecommendedAction#20:Createandenhancesystemsforearlydetectionandresponsetonewinvasivespecies(pest,plant,animalandaquatic).

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DiscussionInvasivespecieshavethreatenedourcoastal,riparian,wetland,andlakefoodwebresourcesandthesespeciesinvasionsarelikelytoincrease.Currently,invasivespeciescosttheGreatLakesregionmillionsofdollarsannually.Proactiveresponsesneedtobetakentodevelopcomprehensivemonitoringprogramsfornewinvasivespecies.Barriers

• Informationgapsregardingpotentialinvadersandchangesintheenvironment• Publicdistrustorlackofbeliefinscience

PotentialSolutions

• EnhancePartnershipforRegionalInvasiveSpeciesManagement(PRISM)capacity• Redefine“whatisinvasive”giventhepotentialchangesintheenvironment• Increaseoutreachtopeoplewhoareinjobsandenjoyrecreationalpursuitsthatplacethemin

habitatslikelytoharbornewinvasivespeciesRecommendedAction#21:Increaseearlydetectionofhumanandanimalpathogens(newones,andincreasesinoccurrenceofexistingones)thatassociatedwithwater-relatedvectors.DiscussionAswithinvasivespecies,newandexistingpathogensmayfindthattheincreasingtemperaturesandassociatedecologicalchangesduetoclimatechangemakethebasinahospitablehabitat.Theapproachshouldbesimilartoinvasivespecies:improvedandmorecomprehensivemonitoringanddetectiontechnology.Also,improvedaccesstohealthcarewillassistinidentifyingpotentialillnessesfromthesenewpathogens.Barriers

• Lackofcapacity(funds,technology,andtrainedstaff)• Lackofmonitoringanddiagnosticdesigns• Potentialnewpathogensarecurrentlyunknownthreats

PotentialSolutions

• Investintechnologytodetectnewpathogens• Improvenaturalresourcemanagers’connectionstoresearchersandmedicalcommunity• Improveconnectiontoplaceswheretheyalreadylivewiththeseissues• Willingnesstoimplementrecommendations(outreach)• Studyfishdisease(tobetterunderstandhowthesepathogensspreadandhowtheycanbe

treated)

PotentialNextStepsThepurposeofthisreporttoinformLakeandWatershedManagersandPlannersabouttheaboverecommendationactionthatcanbetakennowtoprepareforuncertaintiesrelatedtotheneedforclimatechangeadaptationfromtheperspectivesofthosewhowork,liveandplayintheLakeOntariobasin.Therecommendationsweregeneratedbydiversestakeholdergroupsusingasaresourceonlythefourpotentialfuturescenariosdifferentiatedbydifferentextremeprecipitationandpopulation

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growthpatterns.Therecommendationsarepowerfulbecausetheyarewin-winsolutionsthatmaximizeresiliencetoawiderangeofconditionsandfuturesandbecausetheyaregeneratedinaroomofdiversestakeholders.Theseactionsandideasaredesignedtobeusedwhenengagingthepublicinotherplanningprocesses(localorregional)asyouseektoincludeclimatechangeprovisionsinnewandexistingplans.Manyoftherecommendationshavebenefitsbeyondthoseassociatedwithclimatechangeandthusmayalreadybepresentinyourplanning.Ideasforpresentingtheserecommendationsareasfollows.FactSheetsThesecompiledrecommendations,barriersandsolutionscouldbethebasisforfactsheetsproducedtofullydescribeeachpractice,theexistingregulatoryorvoluntaryimplementationmechanisms,existingfundingsources,otherbenefitsandcostsofimplementationaswellasothertypesoftrade-offsnecessarytotakeaspecificaction.Byusingsuchfactsheetsinaplanningprocess,allparticipantscanbebroughttothesamelevelofunderstandingonvariousissues.LocalScenarioPlanningTheprocessusedtogeneratetheserecommendationscouldbeusedonatasmallerwatershedscaleand/oroverashorterperiodoftimewithaconsistentgroupofdiversestakeholdersinordertorefineandtailortherecommendationsbasedonlocalknowledgeofwatermanagementpractices,infrastructureissuesandconcerns,businessclimate,ecosystembenefitsandconcernsaswellasothermorespecificandlocalbarrierstoimplementation.Thisprocesswouldbebestrunwithlocalexpertsinplanning,policy,naturalsciencesandeconomicsparticipatingaswell.“Strawman”Analternateusecouldbetosimplypresenttheserecommendationsalongwithinformationofhowtheyweregeneratedinordertostartadiscussionofhowamorelocalizedorlake-basedplanningprocesscouldincorporatetheseideas.Thus,therecommendationswouldserveasastartingpoint.

ConclusionPublicandstakeholderengagementinplanningisimportantfordevelopingasenseofownershipinaplanandforincreasingthelikelihoodofitsimplementation.ParticularlyinahomerulestatesuchasNewYork,manyoftherecommendedactionspresentedaremostappropriatelyimplementedatthelocalscale.Publicandstakeholdersupportisimportantingeneratingthepoliticalwillforpolicychange.ItishopedthatthisreportwillbeusedtostartdialogsandexpandthinkingabouthowplanningforclimatechangeshouldoccurintheLakeOntariobasinandhowplanningunderhighuncertaintycanadvance.

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ReferencesDinse,K.,J.Read,andD.Scavia.2009.PreparingforClimateChangeintheGreatLakesRegion.[MICHU

09-103]AnnArbor,MI:MichiganSeaGrantKunkel,K.E.,L.E.Stevens,S.E.Stevens,L.Sun,E.Janssen,D.Wuebbles,J.Rennells,A.DeGaetano,and

J.G.Dobson,2013:RegionalClimateTrendsandScenariosfortheU.S.NationalAssessment,Part1.ClimateoftheNortheastU.S.,NOAATechnicalReportNESDIS142-1,80pp.

GreatLakesCoastalResilience,cited2015:GLCRPlanningGuide-CaseStudies.[Availableonlineat

www.greatlakesresilience.org/case-studies.]

Hayhoe,K.,C.Wake,B.Anderson,X.Liang,E.Maurer,J.Zhu,J.Bradbury,A.DeGaetano,A.M.Stoner,

andD.Wuebbles,2008.RegionalclimatechangeprojectionsfortheNortheastUSA,MitigAdaptStratGlobChange13:425–436.

MillenniumEcosystemAssessment,cited2015:EcosystemsandHumanWell-Being[Availableonlineat

http://www.unep.org/maweb/documents/document.356.aspx.pdf.]

Nelson,D.,H.Elmer,R.Held,D.Forsythe,andS.Casey,2011:LaurentianGreatLakesBasinClimateChangeAdaptation.NOAATechnicalMemorandumGLERL-153,43pp.

Peterson,G.D.,G.S.CummingandS.R.Carpenter,2003.ScenarioPlanning:aToolforConservationinanUncertainWorld,17(2)ConservationBiology358-366.

Wack,Pierre.1985.Scenarios:UnchartedWatersAhead,HarvardBusinessReviewSept-Oct73-89.Walker,B.,CarpenterS.,Anderies,J.,Abel,N.,Cumming,G.,Janssen,M.,Lebel,L.,Norberg,J.,Peterson,

G.D.,Pritchard,R.2002.2.Resiliencemanagementinsocial-ecologicalsystems:aworkinghypothesisforaparticipatoryapproach.ConservationEcology6(1):14.[Availableonlineathttp://www.consecol.org/vol6/iss1/art14]

WesternUniversity,cited2015:GreatLakesFuturesProject.[Availableonlineathttp://uwo.ca/biology/glfp]

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Appendices

AppendixA………………………………………………………………………………………….Page25FourScenariosAppendixB……………………………………………………………………………………………Page29Summaryof“Win-Win”Recommendations

IMPACTED SECTOR

Precipitation Driver (Increased Drought)

Temperature Driver (Warmer Air

Temperatures)

Population Driver (Slow Growth)

Land• Surface soils dry out• Exposed shorelines• Decreased property values from aesthetic changes to lakeshore

• Longer growing season • Slow conversion of land use

Water/Lakes• Lake levels fall• Reduced stream flows• Wetlands dry out

• Warmer lake waters • Less ice cover • More evaporation

• Increased contamination of raw water sources from agricultural sector• Greater irrigation demands

Ecosystem

• Loss of lake and wetland habitat• Fewer fish spawning sites• Increased risk of fire• Increased intensity of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)

• Fewer cold refugia • Fewer cold water fish species • Increase in southern invasive species • Lower lake oxygen

• More agricultural pollutants • Increased intensity of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)

Human

• Greater water• use demands/diminished well water supplies• Increased need for water quality management• Increased need for drought planning and water conservation policy• Higher irrigation costs• Economic stress (i.e., crop losses, lake/shoreline industry losses, etc)• Increased risk of fire

• Increased health risks from extreme heat events • Increased urban heat island effects • Increased risk of dangers and damages from freezing rain events

• More agricultural pollution treatment needed

Drier, Slow-Growth Population

Climate Scenario Details

Population Scenario Details

• Warming temperatures (especially winter)• More intense short (seasonal) and long-term (multi-year) droughts• Less snowpack contributes to summer drought

• Slower economic growth and fewer business opportunities

• Increased nuclear energy

land use economy

• Compared to other U.S. states, NY experience slower population growth

• Increased dairy production and water allocation to dairy

drier

Boatless Ontario

IMPACTED SECTOR

Precipitation Driver (Increased Precipitation)

Temperature Driver (Warmer Air

Temperatures)

Population Driver (Slow Growth)

Land

• More stormwater runoff• Lakeshore/river flooding• Increased scour, erosion• Increased gully formation• Increased sediments• Increased property damage from floods• Restricted building in flood prone areas

• Longer growing season • Slow conversion of land use

Water/Lakes• Lake levels rise• More stream flooding• Erosive wave activity

• Warmer lake waters • Less ice cover • More evaporation

• Increased contamination of raw water sources from agricultural sector• Greater irrigation demands

Ecosystem • Increased intensity of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)

• Lower lake oxygen• Fewer cold refugia• Fewer cold water fish species• Increase in southern invasive species

• More agricultural pollutants • Increased intensity of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)

Human

• Sewer overflows• Increased need for water and water quality management• Possible resizing of culverts• Flood damage to infrastructure• Risk of increased waterborne illnesses, and injury/death from flooding• Higher flood mitigation and insurance costs

• Increased health risks from extreme heat events • Increased urban heat island effects • Increased risk of dangers and damages from freezing rain events

• More agricultural pollution treatment needed

Wetter, Slow-Growth Population

Climate Scenario Details

Population Scenario Details

• Northeast is wetter but this isn’t evenly distributed by season or event• Warming temperatures (especially winter)• Extreme precipitation events more frequent• More winter precipitation• More precipitation is projected to fall as rain rather than snow

• Struggling alternative energy market and economy

• Political stagnancy and inflexibility

wetter

land use economy

• Compared to other U.S. states, NY experience slower population growth

• Increased unsustainable plant based biofiuel and animal based agriculture

Raging Runoff

IMPACTED SECTOR

Precipitation Driver (Increased Drought)

Temperature Driver (Warmer Air Temperatures)

Population Driver (High Population)

Land• Surface soils dry out • Exposed shorelines • Decreased property values from aesthetic changes to lakeshore

• Longer growing season • More impervious land cover

Water/Lakes• Lake levels fall • Reduced stream flows • Wetlands dry out

• Warmer lake waters • Less ice cover • More evaporation

• Greater water use, demands • More stormwater runoff

Ecosystem

• Loss of lake and wetland habitat • Fewer fish spawning sites • Increased risk of fire • Increased intensity of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)

• Fewer cold refugia • Fewer cold water fish species • Increase in southern invasive species • Lower lake oxygen

• More agricultural pollutants • Increased intensity of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) • Increased damage from industrial pollutants

Human

• Greater water use demands/diminished well water supplies • Increased need for water quality management • Increased need for drought planning and water conservation policy • Economic stress (i.e., crop losses, lake/shoreline industry losses, etc) • Increased risk of fire

• Increased health risks from extreme heat events • Increased urban heat island effects • Increased risk of dangers and damages from freezing rain events

• Increased wastewater treatment and disposal needs • Floodplain/shoreline communities at risk from higher water levels

Drier, Increased Population

Climate Scenario Details

Population Scenario Details

• Warming temperatures (especially winter)• More intense short (seasonal) and long-term (multi-year) droughts• Less snowpack contributes to summer drought

• Technology advances have left immigrant and low-wage workers unemployed

• Federal/state stimulus programs in action• Shift from historic sportfishing boats to

smaller/lighter vessels• Increased tourism• New energy extraction methods

drier

land use economy

• Rapid population growth in NY and Ontario

• Increased crime

• Increased conversion of land for urban sprawl and mega farms (with increased water recycling)

Crowded Beaches

IMPACTED SECTOR

Precipitation Driver (Increased Precipitation)

Temperature Driver (Warmer Air Temperatures)

Population Driver (High Population)

Land

• More stormwater runoff• Lakeshore/river flooding• Increased scour, erosion• Increased gully formation• Increased sediments

• Longer growing season • More impervious land cover

Water/Lakes• Lake levels rise• More stream flooding• Erosive wave activity

• Warmer lake waters • Less ice cover • More evaporation

• Greater water use, demands • More stormwater runoff

Ecosystem • Increased intensity of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)

• Fewer cold refugia • Fewer cold water fish species • Increase in southern invasive species • Lower lake oxygen

• More agricultural pollutants • Increased intensity of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) • Increased damage from industrial pollutants

Human

• Sewer overflows• Increased need for water/water quality management• Possible resizing of culverts• Flood damage to infrastructure • Risk of increased waterborne illnesses, and injury/death from flooding• Higher flood mitigation and insurance costs

• Increased health risks from extreme heat events • Increased urban heat island effects • Increased risk of dangers and damages from freezing rain events

• Increased wastewater treatment and disposal needs • Floodplain/shoreline communities at risk from higher water levels

Wetter, Increased Population

Climate Scenario Details

Population Scenario Details

• Northeast is wetter but this isn’t evenly distributed by season or event• Warming temperatures (especially winter)• Extreme precipitation events are more frequent• More winter precipitation• More precipitation is projected to fall as rain rather than snow

• Increased conversion of land for urban sprawl and agriculture

• Increased road/transportation/shipping development

• Agriculture shifts to wet adopted crops (i.e. rice)

wetter

land use economy

• Rapid population growth in NY and Ontario

• Increased alternative energy development

• Increased aquaculture offshore

Soggy Strip Malls