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Utilizing Large Truck Crash Causation Data to Assess Countermeasure Effectiveness

Presented at theSAE Government/Industry Meeting, May 2008

Kristin KingsleyEngineer, Vehicle Safety Research

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Outline

Define the Crash ProblemDiscuss CountermeasuresCrash Causation PhilosophiesLTCCS MethodologyLTCCS AnalysisCase ExamplesWhere to Go from Here

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Persons Killed and Rate

Source: FARS and FHWA

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Per

son

s K

illed

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

Fata

litie

s /

100M

VM

T

Persons Killed Fatalities / 100M VMT

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Heavy Truck Fatalities2006 FARS

NoncollisionImpact w ith Non-

fixed Object

Frontal Impact w ith Another MV,

Side Impact w ith Another MV

Rear Impact w ith Another MV

Impact w ith Fixed Object

Fatalities:805 - Truck Occupants3,766 - Other Vehicle Occupants424 - Non-occupants

10%11%

4%

15%

12%

46%

1%Other/Unknown

Impact with Another MV

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Crash PreventionWhat Can Advanced Technologies Do to Help Prevent Crashes?

Augment Driver Performance• Forward Collision Warning • Automatic Braking• Drowsy-driver monitoring• Vision Enhancement (Night Vision)• Lane Departure Warning

Augment Vehicle Performance• Intervene when driver action would be insufficient to prevent a

crash (Stability Control Systems - ESC and RSC)

Augment Other Vehicle Systems• Vehicle to vehicle communications

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NHTSA’s Role

Continue to Encourage the Refinement and Integration of Advanced TechnologiesEvaluate Technology EffectivenessSet Minimum Performance CriteriaEducate ConsumersEncourage the Market Where AppropriateRegulate Where Appropriate

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Crash Causal Factors

Driver Related Driver Related FactorsFactors90%90%

Vehicle Related 2%

Vehicle Related Vehicle Related 2%2%

RoadSurface8%

RoadRoadSurfaceSurface8%8%

Source: Syntheses Report: Examination of Target Vehicular Crashes and Potential ITS Countermeasures, Wassim Najm, et al, DOT HS 808 263, 1995, Section 3

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Crash Causation

Too Fast for CurveDecreasing RadiusNegative SuperelevationCargo ShiftDefective Leaf Spring Assembly

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Crash Causation

Network of CausesPerchonok’s Accident Cause Analysis

• Systematic framework of crash factors• Interrelated events and conditions

Clinical MethodRelative Risk Analysis

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LTCCS Philosophy and Methodology

1070 Heavy Vehicle CrashesCapture all Contributing FactorsOn-Scene InvestigationsData Collected

• Interviews• Vehicle Inspections• Scene Documentation

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Crash Assessment

Critical Crash Envelope

Critical Reason for

The Critical Precrash

Event

Critical Precrash

Event Associated

Factors

Critical Precrash

Event

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Why Did We Collect LTCCS Data?

To Determine Cause (As in Fault)?Who Caused the LTCCS Crashes?

• Critical Reason was assigned to the passenger vehicle in 56% of the truck vs. light vehicle crashes

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Critical Reason <> Cause

Culpability plays NO role in determining the critical precrash event

V1

V1

V2

V2

V1

V1

V1

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Why Did We Collect LTCCS Data?

In 41%* of truck vs. light vehicle crashes, the truck contributed more to the crash

• In 52%* of truck vs. light vehicle crashes, countermeasures on the truck may have helped to prevent the crash

In 40%* of the truck vs. nonmotoristcrashes, the truck contributed more to the crash

• In 70%* of truck vs. nonmotorist crashes, countermeasures on the truck may have the potential to help prevent the crash

*Preliminary Results based on engineering analysis of LTCCS cases

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Why Did We Collect LTCCS Data?

To Gain a Better Understanding of Crash CausationTo Find Countermeasures10% of crashes in LTCCS were not preventable by crash avoidance technologies, public education, or enforcement

• 64% of the crashes in LTCCS may have benefited from countermeasures on the truck

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LTCCS Analysis

ObjectiveMethodology

• Case ReviewsSummaryScene DiagramCrash Event Assessment FormPhotos

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Case Reviews – Example

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Case Reviews – Example

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Case Reviews – Example

Truck CountermeasuresLight Vehicle CountermeasuresOther Countermeasures

• EnvironmentBetter Roadway DesignBetter Signage

Who “Caused” the Crash

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What Can We Do With This

Focus NHTSA Efforts on Promising TechnologiesUse LTCCS Analysis to Inform our GES and FARS Estimates of Countermeasure Effectiveness and Cost/Benefits Analysis

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Disclaimer

Subjectivity of Case ReviewsRich Data Available to AllGood Luck

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Thank you!

Kristin.Kingsley@dot.gov

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