viking workshop 8 may 2001 dr. klaus nökel ptv planung transport verkehr ag stumpfstr. 1 d-76131...
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VIKING Workshop
8 May 2001
Dr. Klaus Nökel
PTV
Planung TransportVerkehr AG
Stumpfstr. 1
D-76131 Karlsruhe
Tel. +49 721 96 51-0
Fax +49 721 96 51- 699
Internet: www.ptv.de
EXPO 2000 traffic management with VISUM-Online
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What is Visum-Online ?
basic traffic estimation / forecasting algorithms for traffic management centres
extension of proven VISUM platform
jointly developed by PTV and Siemens
fully integrated with PTV Vision and Siemens Concert
Installations Hannover (move GmbH) München (part of federally funded research project MoTIV) Antwerp, Belgium (under development) Berlin, Germany (under development) Shenzhen, China (in preparation)
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Why VISUM-online?
Numerous ITS facilities are deployed to improve traffic conditions, e.g. in Hannover:
32 VMS for dynamic route guidance on motor way 80 km of motorway with VMS speed control twice daily tidal flow one-way traffic on major highway 3 parking guidance systems (City, EXPO, P&R) direct access to signal control programs Links to
Roadworks Information System
Command & Control System of police and fire brigade
Operations control system for public transport
Call Centre for mobility services
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Why VISUM-online?
Support decisions about traffic management measures through display of current level of service (LOS) preview of LOS for 30 - 60 minutes forecast of effects on LOS of proposed traffic management
measures
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Architecture of Visum-Online
Transportation Modelling (VISUM-online)Input
Networks
A: Navigation
B: Planung
C: Prognose
relational database (Oracle)
graphical UI
OD
BC
OD
BC
InputDemand
Fij-Matrizen:
• Normalverkehr
• Veranstalt-ungsverkehr
graphical UI
Model
• Datenvervoll-ständigung
• Kurzfrist Prog.
• Tagesprognose
Output
• Verkehrslage
• Verkehrslage in 15,30,45,60 min
• Prognose nächster Tag
SubsystemInterface
External Data (Subsystems)
Network
Dynamische Daten
• Baustellen
• Richtungswechsel
OD
BC
OD
BC
SubsystemInterface
TrafficControl
LSA
Parkleitsystem
Park+Ride Info
SubsystemInterface
TrafficCounts
Schleifen
Video
Infrarot.
SubsystemInterface
Incidents
RDS-TMC
Polizei ELR
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Hannover: Available Data Sources
Traffic volume at selected detector loops (motorway, signal controlled junctions)
Speed at delected detector loops (motorway)
State of variable message signs and route guidance
Messages from RDS/TMC radio warning system
Current roadworks and incidents
Car park status (percentage filled)
Major cultural events (with impact on demand)
During EXPO 2000: advance ticketing information
Weather
PTV AG
Volume
Volume
Impedance
Impedance
Demand
Demand
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Hannover: Output
Sensor fusion: GIS system allows simultaneous viewing of all traffic-related information
Level of service (LOS): interpolation of most recent measurements produces volume + speed on all network links
Short-term forecast: extrapolation of current LOS for next 30 minutes (traffic flow simulation)
What-if forecast: like short-term forecast, but with the assumed effects of a proposed traffic management measure
Medium-term forecast: LOS for the next day based on historic trend lines and current information about events, road closures etc.
Visualisation for traffic management operator and distribution of traffic information via Internet, TV, Fax, email, print media
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VISUM-online
Data Completion
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Algorithm for Data Completion (1)
Input OD matrix as initial solution volume from isolated detectors
Algorithm Path Flow Estimator (PFE) by Mike Bell, University of
Newcastle on Tyne, UK
Principle Iterated equilibrium assignment with simultaneous adjustment
of impedances
Result Estimated current OD matrix Routes
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Algorithm for Data Completion (2)
Input Routes with volumes from PFE measured volume and speed from detectors
Algorithm Propagation algorithm by PTV
Principle propagate q and v onto links in the neighborhood of detectors,
degree of confidence decreases with distance from detector
Result volume and speed on all network links reproduces inhomogenous distribution of vehicles along routes
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Propagation algorithm: initial state
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Propagation algorithm : Result
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Algorithm for Short-Term Forecast
Input Link volumes from propagation algorithm OD matrices and routes from PFE „Effects of measures“, e.g. roadworks, signal programs
Algorithm mesoscopic traffic flow simulation (Dynemo)
Principle movement of individual vehicles in accordance with
macroscopic indicators of traffic situation (density, avg. speed)
Result 30 - 60 minute forecast of volume and speed on network links travel time forecasts on fixed routes
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Short-term Forecast under scenario assumptions
30 min
Strategy A
30 min
Strategy B
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Algorithm for Day Forecast
Input static network „Effects of measures“, e.g. roadworks, signal programs hourly OD matrices (base traffic + visitor traffic)
Algorithm dynamic assignment
Principle assignment in 15 min slices, taking into account unfinished
trips from previous slices, vehicles „jump“ in 15 minute steps
Result 1 day forecast of volume and speed on network links
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Day Forecast: Result
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Architecture of Hannover System
Editor PoliceLAN
Traffic Volume, Weather, Incidents, Events
Data Flow
Actuators
Sensor FusionAnalysis
ForecastsCore
Database User Interfaces toSubsystems
ParkingGuidance
Variable Message Signs
Traffic
Management
LAN
Multivision Display Wall
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Display of detector readings
Visum-Online
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Case 2: Link is part of subordinate network, therefore only present in navigation network
Case 1: Link represents future network, therefore only present in planning network
Case 3: Main road, therefore present in all 3 layers, but with varying number of intermediate nodes
Navigationsnetz
Planungsnetz
Prognosenetz
Networks differ in level of detail:Forecast network:~3800 links~220 zones
Planning network:~12000 links~650 zones
Hierarchy of Networks
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Traffic flow effects of incidents
Incidents and roadworks decrease the capacity of the infrastructure and potentially lead to congestion.
This effect is uniformly modelled by decreasing qmax (capacity) and v0 (free flow speed)
Subsystems do not attach resulting qmax and v0 to roadworks and incident messages, therefore traffic engineer in managament centre appends this information
Generating complete alternate network versions for temporary effects is too much overhead and complicates modelling simultaneous measures
Solution: Effects are stored as „infrastructure effect lists“ (German: Netzwirkungslisten, NWL). Each NWL contains a list of tuples(Network element, attribute, new value, validity period)
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create new NWL root node
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set name and default validity period
commit
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select link
add to NWL root
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appears in NWL tree view
set validity period
commit
set effect
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Hannover system: further functionality
demand editor (visitor traffic)
editor for scenario definition (incl. simulation)
difference view for comparing two simulation results
aggregation of detail data to historic trendlines
display of operating status, control of subsystem converters
user administration, user rights
...
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Hannover system: initial experience
Phased deployment CeBIT 1999: basic visualisation of traffic counts Autumn 1999: data completion and short-term forecast CeBIT 2000: day forecast
Quality of results Data completion and day forecast good, but detector coverage
still sparse in many areas Short-term forecast currently only on motorways and freeways,
will be extended as more detectors come on-stream
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accident
downstreamof accident
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Quality of Results
Measured and predicted (in absence of detector) traffic volumes are almost identical (Flow_real vs. Vol_PFE)
Predicted speed has correct profile, but consistently too low (-> v0 needs to be recalibrated)
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Volume [veh/h] Speed [km/h]
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VISUM-online: a traffic manager‘s dream
for more information: klaus.noekel@ptv.de
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