viral marketing strategies on facebook
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Viral Marketing Strategies on Facebook
Analysis, experimentations and case studies on initial seeding populations
Ph.D. dissertation defended by Nasri Messarra, on Dec. 08, 2015 before the following jury:
Anne Mione Professeur à l'Université de Montpellier
Directeur de thèse
Christine BalaguéMaître de Conférences HDR, Telecom Ecole de
Management, Paris
Rapporteur
Gilles PachéProfesseur à l'Université d'Aix Marseille
Rapporteur
Frédéric Le Roy Professeur à l'Université de Montpellier
Examinateur
Gilles N'GoalaProfesseur à l'Université de Montpellier
Examinateur
Laurence SagliettoMaître de conférences HDR à l'Université de Nice
Examinateur
2
Context
2
Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion
• 1 400 000 000 users on Facebook (Social Bakers, 2015)• 936 000 000 daily active users (Social Bakers, 2015)
• Positive mobilisation: the “ice-bucket challenge”, 2 400 000 user generated videos on Facebook (Phing & Yazdanifard, 2014), $98 200 000 in donations against $2 700 000 usually (BBC News, 2014)
• Negative mobilisation: Pampers, Nestlé, Caribou, Bershka… (Fournier & Avery, 2011) – Procter & Gamble’s shares drop by 27% (Bloomberg, 2010)
• Brands have to consider the positive and the negative impact of virality on online social networks and identify the means to control marketing strategies in this new promising but dangerous environment.
Literature
3
Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion
Graph theory (Euler, 1786; Harary, 1969) and its applications in sociology (Granovetter, 1973)
The value of a social network (Reed, 2001)
The diffusion of information (Hinz & al., 2011; Smith & al., 2014)
Virality (Hinz & al, 2001; Booth & Matic, 2001; Bampo & al., 2008)
Initial seeding populations (Hinz & al., 2011; Watts & Dodds, 2007; Liu-Thompkins, 2012)
Research Problem
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Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion
How to create initial seeding population to optimize viral marketing strategies on Facebook?
Viral MarketingStrategy
The Messenger
(Valente, 2010)
Message / Content
(Rowley, 2008)
Network Structure
(Bampo, 2008)
Initial seeding populations (Liu-Thompkins, 2012)
Behavior of the recipients
(Arndt, 1967)
Met
ho
d, E
xper
imen
tsan
d W
ork
in p
rogr
ess
5
Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats DiscussionViral Marketing Strategies on FacebookInitial Seeding Populations
Op
tim
izin
g In
itia
l See
din
g Po
pula
tion
sSo
cial
Net
wo
rks
and
Mar
keti
ng
Usi
ng
Init
ial S
eed
ing
Popu
lati
ons
for
Dif
fusi
on
Synthesis: Facebook channels and marketing strategies
--- submitted to JIM ------- Experiment in progress ---
Spartacus Experiment: is a network of hubs a good seeding population?----- EURAS Proceedings, 2012 -----
--- Article to be written ----
Experience 3: Easily Influenced People to diffuse NWoM
---- INSNA, 2014 ---- ---- Dauphine, 2014 ----
---- JAR – Rejected third review ------- to be resubmitted to another
journal ----
Experience 4: Finding political bridging nodes on Facebook
-- Marketing Science Conf., 2015 ------ submitted to JEM ----
Experience 5: SWT and Personal Branding on Facebook
---- ICTO, 2016 -------- Best paper Award ------ Accepted for JEM ---
--- Recommended to MIS ---To be submitted
Experience 1: Can we recreate Facebook users social graph?
---- Article on fake Profiles as a
diffusion vector --
---- Article on ethics in research on
OSN (Chapter 2 of the thesis) --
Experiment 1: Rebuilding the hidden network of friends of Facebook users
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Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion
Pro
ble
mCan we rebuild the network structure of the hidden friends of a Facebook user?
Met
ho
d
4 real and 4 fake profiles using the “mutual friends” function
Res
ult
s
Between4% and 28% of the social graph of each user isrebuilt
The “Spartacus” experiment – Is a network of hubs a good seeding population?
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Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion
Pro
ble
mCan we createa network of hubs around a fake profile?
Will thisnetwork be a good seedingpopulation (Hinz & al.)?
Met
ho
d
Creation of a fake profile that sends requests to “somebodies” (Booth & Matic) only.
2 steps experiments (2 years and 4 years).
Res
ult
s
264 friends attracted after the critical mass of 200 friends.
A fake profile is not a good vector for information diffusion.
Experiment 3: Le determinant role of the initial seeding population in the diffusion of NWOM
8
Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion
Pro
ble
mCan a population of « easilyinfluencedpeople » (Watts & Dodds) diffuse NWOM efficiently?
Met
ho
d
Attraction of 300 engaged consumers to a network of friends.
Diffusing negative posts to this newly created population
Res
ult
s
Virality increaseof 400%
Messages Négatifs Sur la page de l’entreprise
Sur les faux profils Différence
Fans engagés 11 37 +236%Engagement (likes, commentaires)
15 77 +413%
Reciprocation(communicationd’utilisateur àutilisateur)
0% 14.8% +14.8%
Experiment 4: Finding political bridging nodes on Facebook
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Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion
Pro
ble
mCan we find politicalbridging nodes on Facebook to use as an initial seedingpopulation to diffuse new ideas(Burt)?
Met
ho
d
A triangulation system between the networks of 3 politicians of different orientations
A network of more than 15,000 users with 300,000 connections between them
Res
ult
s
3,839 bridgingnodes foundbetween the twomain politicalgroups in Lebanon
10
Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion
Synthesis: Rethinking marketing on Facebook
Pro
ble
mResearch and pratice are focused on viral marketing on Facebook without consideration for the channel used (pages, groups, Profiles) M
eth
od
s
We create pivot tables and consider several marketing techniques on different Facebook channels R
esu
lts
Marketing
method
Profiles
Groups
Pages
Mass X
Niche X
Viral X
Relational X X
Viral Marketing Criteria Timelines (Personal) Groups Pages
Content1 Yes Yes Yes
Network Structure2 Yes Limited Limited
Behavior of the recipients3 Can be anticipated Can be anticipated Can be anticipated
Seeding Strategy4 Yes Limited to No Limited to Broad
Messenger5 Yes Yes Untrusted
Score 5/5 3/5 2/5
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Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion
A case of personal branding: Modifying the initial seeding population over time
Pro
ble
mCan we optimizethe seedingpopulation of a Facebook brand over time?
Met
ho
d
We modify the network structure and the initial seeding population with every new post by introducing weak ties to the network (Granovetter, Burt) and rejecting friend requests from strong links.
Res
ult
s
A significantincrease of engagements (likes, comments, shares) over twoyears.
Statuses are shared and republished in news papers.
Statusespublished in a book
N Maximum Sum Mean Std. Deviation
Statistic Statistic Statistic Statistic Statistic
Likes 103 5225 20.65 18.819
Comments 31 1160 4.58 5.143
Shares 32 323 1.28 3.606
Valid N (listwise) 253
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
ns
• Initial seeding populations on Facebook
• Negative WoM on Facebook
• Viral marketing
• The creation and use of fake profiles on Facebook
Theoretical
• Different methods to extract and use social graphs on Facebook
Methodological
• Viral marketing strategies on Facebook with optimization of the channel and initial seeding populations
• A personal branding strategy on Facebook
• Suggestion of new marketing strategies to use on Facebook on different channels
Managerial
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Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion
Limits
• Experiments on a Lebanese population: cultural differences?
• Some experiments limited to a few hundred people. The need to push the experiments further on larger populations, different situations, etc.
• The need to better understand the reactions of Facebook users in each experiment.
• The need to convert the experiments to mathematical models.
• Our experiments bring answers to some problems but open the door for many questions. The need to push forward…
13
Contexte Littérature Problématique Méthode Résultats Discussion
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