water agriculture and poverty-trying to unravel the complexity

Water agriculture and poverty

…trying to unravel complexity

Simon Cook, Myles Fisher, Meike Andersson, Jorge Rubiano, Mark Giordano and BFP teams

Linkages between water, agriculture & poverty

1.Why care?

2.What linkages do we know about?– Logical: what do we know from studies?

– Evidence: which seem the most influential?

3.How do these linkages work?– Identifying interventions to reduce poverty

– Linking local, global and basin scales

1 Why do we need to know?…

Agriculture and water receive $bns(as separate sectors)

Aid for water supply and sanitation, 1973-2002

Aid by sector, 2002

World food crisis

• Medium-term Impacts – Demand outstripping supply

– Increasing food prices

– Decreasing food security for poorest

– Increasing costs of inputs

World Water Crisis: Declining per capita availability of water

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1960 1990 2025

Africa

World

Asia

MENA

‘000 m3

Increasing demand by all users

Agriculture uses > 70% of water

In summary

• More people…more development…

• …need more food (already takes > 70% of water)

• …need more water

• …other demands also increasing

Agriculture greatest user: Demand increasing

Devaraj de Condappa

Volta

2 Drawing the links between water, agriculture and poverty

Warning! Complexity ahead

And how to go from Global …

…to Local?

• The general picture

(Peden et al. 2007)

We know• That people use water in many ways

We know• That agriculture occupies PART of a development trajectory

Agricultur e contribution to growth (%)

World Bank, 2007

Agriculture vs GNI

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50

Agricultural contribution to GDP (%)

Gross National Income ($/capita)

We know• That the poorest tend to rely on agriculture

Size of bubble proportional to rural

population

World Bank, 2007

We know• That water availability is NOT the only, (or main) driver

GNI vs Water

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

-500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Water availability (m3/cap)

GNI ($/cap PPP)

Size of bubble proportional to agricutlure contribution to GDP

Per capita income vs. water availability

World Bank, 2007

• What does this mean in basins? A few observations

São Francisco: Drought is one factor…of many

Marcello Torres et al., 2008

Drought

Poor education

Access tocredit

Karkheh: Farmers not the poorestsituation modified by politics

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

Une

mpl

oyed

Man

ager

Cle

rkTr

adep

erso

n

Farm

er

Prod

uctio

n wor

ker

Uns

kille

d w

orke

r

KB

Cou

ntry

Poverty lines from household income and expenditure data

Karkheh BFP team

Basic concept: Need Water productivity to respond faster than demand

crisis

response

WP

time

Demand line

Volta

Actual Water-Productivity [the gain per m3 water

consumed] much lower than potential

Potential= 1-2 kg/m3

IRD, 2007

Mekong: water productivity responding partially to demand

0.000

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Water productivity, kg/m

3 Laos

Thailand

Cambodia

Vietnam

Vietnam Central

highlands

Vietnam Mekong

River Delta

Mac Kirby, 2007

But.. Mekong What people do can affect (shared) assets

Complex but understandable

Dam developmentChanging land use, shifting cultivation,sustainability, sedimentation

Seasonal water shortage, poor soils, low rice productivity

Fish & environmental impacts of upstream, competition land

Salinisation, water quality, highly developed

Eric Kemp-Benedict, 2008

3 How do water and agriculture combine to influence

livelihoods

Water productivity

Water availability

Non-poor

Improve outcome from a given use

3 Coupling water, agriculture and poverty alleviation

Poor

Developing / protecting NR assets ”Increasing

Water productivity”

Improve collective outcome by distribution

Increase collective gain“Benefit-sharing of multiple uses”

Global -to local links

GLOBALwater and food systems considered separately

both impact on livelihoods

Local ScaleLocal systems considered individually

Local impact not referenced to broader systems

Basin scaleSystems interact through(Unspecified) transfers

Summary

• Water and food systems both impact on poverty: – Driven by development demand

– Water productivity measure of response/activity

• At local scale, linkages between water, food & poverty are direct, non-crossing

• Cross-over between food and water occurs at basin-scale.

Thank you

• Volta Scenarios under climate change

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Year of simulation

Lake Volta storage (km3)

Wetter scenario

Reference scenario

Drier scenario

Top of inactive (70 km3)

Storage capacity (148 km3)

De Condappa et al., 2008

Comfortable

Vulnerable

Critical