water and sustainability in the columbia basin jennifer c. adam assistant professor civil and...
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Water and Sustainability in the
Columbia BasinJennifer C. Adam
Assistant ProfessorCivil and Environmental Engineering
CSANR Advisory Committee Meeting, Dec 13, 2011
Research Expertise Water resources and hydrologic
interactions with Climate change and climate variability Land cover / land use change Socio-economics
Geographic scales of interest Watershed to global Current research emphasis at regional scale
Computer-based modeling
Hydrologic Modeling Primer
Land Cover
Soils
Rivers
Elevation Algorithms / Assumptions
Process-based model Streamflow
EvaporationTranspirationSnowpackSoil Moisture etc…
Outline Columbia Basin Water Supply & Demand
Forecast Regional Earth System Modeling Future Directions
THE COLUMBIA BASIN WATER SUPPLY & DEMAND FORECAST
Background Team Modeling capabilities developed Results
The Columbia River Basin: Competing UsesOut of Stream Agricultural Municipal Industrial
In Stream Hydropower Flood Control Fish Flows Navigation Recreation
Background: Need for a Columbia Basin Water Supply & Demand Forecasting
Every 5 years, the Washington State Department of Ecology’s office of the Columbia River (OCR) is required to submit a long-term water supply and demand forecast to the Legislature
Washington State University (WSU) was assigned to develop the 2030s forecast for water supply and out-of-stream demand
Changes in climate and water demand are expected to exacerbate the current complexity of managing the water resources of the basin
The forecast helps improving understanding of where additional water supply is most critically needed, now and in the future
Projected Precipitation Change in the Pacific Northwest Region
Precipitation seasonality: decrease in summer, increase in other seasons
Annual precipitation changes uncertain
Mote and Salathe 2010
Projected Temperature Change in the Pacific Northwest Region
All seasons projected to warm
Annual temperature projections more robust
Mote and Salathe 2010
WSU Team Civil and Environmental Engineering / State of Washington Water Research Center
Jennifer Adam, Assistant Professor Michael Barber, Professor and Director of SWWRC Kiran Chinnayakanahalli, Postdoctoral Associate (SWWRC) Dana Pride, Web Designer (SWWRC) Kirti Rajagopalan, PhD Student Shifa Dinesh, PhD Student Matt McDonald, MS Student
Biological Systems Engineering Claudio Stöckle, Professor and Chair Roger Nelson, Research Associate Keyvan Malek, PhD Student
School of Economics Michael Brady, Assistant Professor Jon Yoder, Associate Professor Tom Marsh, Professor and Director of IMPACT Center
Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources Chad Kruger, Director Georgine Yorgey, Research Associate Sylvia Kantor, Research Associate
Modeling Capabilities Developed Started with tools developed at the
University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (UW CIG), and added:
1. Integrated surface hydrology and crop systems modeling
2. Inclusion of water management1. Reservoirs2. Curtailment
3. Interaction between biophysical and economic decision making models
1. Hydrology/Crop Model Integration
1. Weather (D)
2. SoilSoil layer depths
Soil water content
3. Water flux (D)Infiltrated water
4. Crop type
Irrigation water = Crop Water Demand /irrigation
efficiency
Sow dateCrop interception
capacityCrop phenologyCrop uptake (D)Water stress (D)
Current biomass (D)Crop Water demand (D)
Harvest dayCrop Yield
VIC Hydrology CropSyst
D – communicated daily
Crops Modeled
Winter Wheat Spring Wheat Alfalfa Barley Potato Corn Corn, Sweet Pasture Apple Cherry Lentil Mint Hops
Grape, Juice Grape, Wine Pea, Green Pea, Dry Sugarbeet Canola
Onions Asparagus Carrots Squash Garlic Spinach
Generic Vegetables
Grape, Juice Grass hay Bluegrass Hay Rye grass
Oats Bean, green Rye Barley Bean, dry Bean, green
Other pastures
Lentil/Wheat type
Caneberry Blueberry Cranberry
Pear Peaches
Berries
Other Tree fruits
Results A small increase of around 3.0 (±1.2)% in average
annual supplies by 2030 compared to historical (1977-2006)
Unregulated surface water supply at Bonneville will
The irrigation demand under 2030s climate was roughly 2.5% above modeled historic levels under average flow conditions
Most severe impacts for specific watersheds
14.3 (±1.2)% between June and October
17.5 (±1.9)% between November and May
Regulated Supply vs Demand for Columbia River Basin (at Bonneville)
Note: Supply is reported prior to accounting for demands
Demand: 13.3 million ac-ft
Demand: 13.6 million ac-ft2030s
Regulated Supply and In-Stream Flow Requirements at Key Locations
Future(2030s)
Historical (1977-2006)
Note: Supply is reported prior to accounting for demands
Summary Annual supply is projected to increase roughly the
same amount as annual demand (with lower certainty).
However the seasonality of supply will move away from the season of highest demand (with higher certainty).
Increased irrigation demand, coupled with decreased seasonal supply poses difficult water resources management questions, especially in the context of competing in stream and out of stream users of water supply.
What IS an Earth System Model?
Represents multiple components of the earth system
Coupler
Atmosphere
Human Actions
LandWater Bodies
http://www.cereo.wsu.edu/bioearth/
BioEarth•Overarching Goal: To improve the understanding of regional and decadal-scale C:N:H2O interactions in context of global change to better inform decision makers involved in natural and agricultural resource management.
BioEarth Unique Elements Model elements that directly relate
agriculture and natural resource management and decision making Economics: crop and forest resource human
decision making Crop modeling: irrigation, fertilization,
rotations, tillage, residue Water management: reservoirs, curtailment Environmental impacts: air quality, water
quality, water availability
BioEarth Team Washington State University
Biological Sciences Biological Systems Engineering CSANR Civil and Environmental Engineering Computer Sciences Earth and Environmental Sciences Economics Extension Laboratory for Atmospheric Research
Clark University, Communications National Center for Atmospheric Research Oregon State University, Economics Pacific Northwest National Lab, Atmospheric Sciences University of California Santa Barbara, Environmental Sciences
Current and Future Directions that can involve CSANR Improved understanding of research and
modeling needs of agricultural producers and natural resource managers
Impacts of improved irrigation efficiency on return flows and downstream crop yields
Inclusion of Carbon and Nitrogen cycling in coupled hydrology-crop model (VIC-CropSyst)
Inclusion of nutritional quality in VIC-CropSyst Climate change perception and education Other ideas?
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