weather & climate dr. dave dubois nm state climatologist presented to phys110 students, april...

Weather & Climate

Dr. Dave DuBoisNM State Climatologist

http://weather.nmsu.edu

Presented to PHYS110 students, April 22, 2010

Precipitation from Radar

What is Climate?

• Climate is the average, expected value for a specific time (of day, year, etc.)

• Weather is what actually happens• Climate is defined over long periods, typically

more than 20 to 30 years time spans• Climate is not just about temperature• Climate change is not just about global

warming

Predicting Weather• What is the current weather?– Observations of weather at surface and aloft

• Does the current weather fit a pattern?– Fair weather ridge, stormy trough, monsoon, etc.

• First guess from experience and education• Consult forecast models– Global to regional to sub-regional

• Compare with statistics from the past– Look at both models and observations

• Refine forecast• Repeat every few hours

AWIPS workstation

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

• Basic physical laws converted into a series of mathematical equations– Physical laws of motion (e.g. Newton’s 2nd law)– Conservation of energy (e.g. 1st law thermo)

• Basic prediction– If we know initial condition of the atmosphere, we

can solve the equations to obtain new values of variables at a later time

Basic Weather Prediction Model

• A model in its simplest form

Parameterization

• Simplify calculations to put into model

• Example: cloud optical depth (how much solar radiation penetrates clouds)

NCEP Supercomputing• IBM Power6 p575– 69.7 Teraflops Linpack• #36 Top 500 Nov 2008

– 156 Power6 32-way Nodes

– 4,992 processors @ 4.7GHz

– 19,712 gigabytes memory

– 170 terabytes of disk space

– 100 terabyte tape archive

Slide adapted from a talk by Ben Kyger, Director, NCEP Central Operations

Still Forecasts miss Storms

• Hail storm in Boulder, Colorado• Lasted 20 minutes, 1-km wide path• 2 inches deep of hail, stripped leaves off trees• Before storm T=81F, after storm T=39F• NWS issued large hail warning only after

seeing the radar as it was falling and reports from weather spotters

Schlatter et al., (2008) Monthy Weather Review

http://web.nmsu.edu/~dwdubois/geog390_wxbrief.html

http://web.nmsu.edu/~dwdubois/weather.html

Demonstration

Tipping Bucket Rain Gage

NM Climate Center weather station at Leyendecker Farm

Funnels precipitation into a bucket mechanism that tips when filled to a calibrated level. A magnet attached to the tipping mechanism actuates a switch as the bucket tips. The momentary switch closure is counted by pulse counting circuitry.

Inside tipping bucket

Temperature/Humidity Sensor

Combined temperature and relative humidity probe With cover off

4” Diameter Rain Gage

The rain gauge is composed of three parts: a funnel, a measuring tube, and a 4-inch diameter overflow tube, and a mounting bracket. The funnel directs the precipitation into the measuring tube and magnifies it by a factor of 10. This allows observers to report rainfall to the nearest 0.01" (one hundredth of an inch). The measuring tube, when full, will hold "one inch" of rainfall. When it rains more than one inch, the excess water collects in the overflow tube.

This is rain and snow data is collected for this:http://www.cocorahs.org/state.aspx?state=nm

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19 http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

Satellite Based Near Surface Temperature

In the bulk troposphere, March 2011 was the 14th coolest in the past 33 years

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Greenhouse_Effect.svg

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CO2 Graph Sources: Temperature Graph Sources: 2001-1958: South Pole Air Flask Data

1958-1220 B.P.: Law Dome, Antarctica

1220 B.P.- 2302 B.P.: Taylor Dome, Antarctica

2302 B.P.- 414k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data

Temperature Graph Sources:

2000-1979: Satellite stratospheric data

1979-1871: S. Hemisphere ground temp. data

1871- 422k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data

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CO2 Graph Sources: Temperature Graph Sources: 2001-1958: South Pole Air Flask Data

1958-1220 B.P.: Law Dome, Antarctica

1220 B.P.- 2302 B.P.: Taylor Dome, Antarctica

2302 B.P.- 414k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data

Temperature Graph Sources:

2000-1979: Satellite stratospheric data

1979-1871: S. Hemisphere ground temp. data

1871- 422k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data

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CO2 Graph Sources: Temperature Graph Sources: 2001-1958: South Pole Air Flask Data

1958-1220 B.P.: Law Dome, Antarctica

1220 B.P.- 2302 B.P.: Taylor Dome, Antarctica

2302 B.P.- 414k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data

Temperature Graph Sources:

2000-1979: Satellite stratospheric data

1979-1871: S. Hemisphere ground temp. data

1871- 422k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data

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http://www.durangobill.com/Swindle_Swindle.html

The Historical Temperature Data vs. Carbon Dioxide & Methane

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http://solar-center.stanford.edu/sun-on-earth/600px-Temp-sunspot-co2.svg.png

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http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1003/1003.6045.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_global_warming_theory

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas

I searched and did not find an equivalent graph of non-athropogenic changes.

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curve_fitting

Polynomial curves fitting points generated with a sine function.

Red line is a first degree polynomial, green line is second degree, orange line is third degree and blue is fourth degree

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http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/Nr_7_March_2__6_Climate_modeling/C__How_climate_models_work_5iy.html

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http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/Nr_7_March_2__6_Climate_modeling/C__How_climate_models_work_5iy.html

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10. The development of climate models over the last 25 years showing how the different components are first developed separately and later coupled into comprehensive climate models. © IPCC TAR 2001 Technical summary, Box 3, Fig 1

http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/Nr_7_March_2__6_Climate_modeling/C__How_climate_models_work_5iy.html