west florida regional overview€¦ · 7 graphs 3 charts . 1 infographic . 7 gratuitous self...

2016 West Florida Regional Overview

• The World vs West Florida

• Market Fundamental Snapshot

• Driving Forces in 2016

Presentation Outline

7 Graphs 3 Charts

1 Infographic 7 Gratuitous Self Serving Pictures of My Adorable Son Grayson

Retail Property Clock – 4th Quarter 2015

Retail Property Clock – 4th Quarter 2013

Taglines for each page belong in this spot.

Peaking market Falling market

Rising market Bottoming market

New York City, Houston, Fort Lauderdale Atlanta, Philadelphia,

Tampa, Orlando Hawaii, Boston, Seattle, Palm Beach, San Diego, Los Angeles, US, Orange County, DC

Chicago San Francisco, Miami, Dallas

Retail Property Clock – 4th Quarter 2014

Taglines for each page belong in this spot.

Peaking market Falling market

Rising market Bottoming market

Palm Beach, Hawaii, Orange County Chicago Seattle, Philadelphia, Orlando, Tampa, Atlanta, Hawaii

New York City, San Diego, Los Angeles, US

Miami, Dallas, Houston, Fort Lauderdale, Boston, DC

Retail Property Clock – 4th Quarter 2015

The “Occupancy” Recovery Nationwide

A net 99 million SF has been leased since 2009.

91.9%

Average Occupancy

From The Peak

From The Crash

0.3%

$15.21

Asking Rental Rate

5.3%

-0.3% 4Q ’07

-2.32% 2Q ’09

From The Peak

From The Crash

-$2.44 1Q ’08

+$0.19 4Q ’12

Florida’s Recovery

Rental rate and occupancy are only at about 2004 levels.

91.6%

Average Occupancy

From The Peak

From The Crash

0.4%

$16.32

Asking Rental Rate

0.1%

+3.61% 3Q ’06

-2.61% 1Q ’10

From The Peak

From The Crash

-$2.75 1Q ’08

+0.70 3Q ’13

Tampa / St. Petersburg

Tampa now has seen three straight years of increases in occupancy. The pressure on rental rates should subside as the development

pipeline begins to fill.

91.2%

Average Occupancy

From The Peak

From The Crash

0.4%

$13.72

Asking Rental Rate

0.4%

-2.9% 1Q ’06

-2.6% 2Q ’10

From The Peak

From The Crash

-$2.64 3Q ’08

+0.28 2Q ’14

Sarasota / Bradenton

Sarasota has been on a tear, with some of the strongest rental rate growth in the nation over the past 12 months, driven by the new

tenant activity around University Town Center.

90.%

Average Occupancy

1.%

$16.68

Asking Rental Rate

16.8%

Fort Myers

The Ft. Myers market has struggled to find a bottom since the housing crash devastated the market, but has shown consistent

absorption over the past year.

89.1%

Average Occupancy

0.7%

$13.13

Asking Rental Rate

0.4%

Naples

Naples has the strongest rents in the state outside of Miami, driven by quality product and surging ‘high-street’ prices along 5th avenue.

90.2%

Average Occupancy

1.2%

$17.70

Asking Rental Rate

6.3%

Orlando

• Orlando’s rental rate has yet to see any recovery, despite large increases in key submarkets and within new developments.

90.8%

Average Occupancy

From The Peak

From The Crash

0.0%

$14.17

Asking Rental Rate

0.1%

-1.7% 2Q ’08

+2.3% 3Q ’09

From The Peak

From The Crash

-$3.51 2Q ’08

+0.07 1Q ’15

Consumer Spending Patterns

2006 = $1,000

$110

$98

$110

$51

$49

$51

$96

$583

2009 = $943

$119

$107

$136

$59

$47

$44

$87

$475

2006 = $1,258

$143

$149

$245

$75

$60

$38

$96

$586

Change

+30%

+53%

+123%

+48%

+22%

-24%

0%

0%

Baby Boomers

Millenials

Generation X

Generation Z

50-70 Years Old 24% of US population 34-50 Years Old 20% of US population

18-34 Years Old 23% of US population 2-18 Years Old 24% of US population

• Student Loans • $35,200 • $392/ Month

• Credit Cards

• $3,200

Millenials and Debt

Student debt levels have risen at unprecedented levels.

• Student Loans • $57,600 • $641/ Month

• Credit Cards

• $7,800

Millenials and Debt – Graduate Degree?

Graduate students face much higher debt levels, with marginally higher starting salaries, putting significant pressure on spending.

Development in 2016

Traditional grocery-anchored neighborhood centers are back.

Development in 2016

New players in the market may challenge the market paradigms.

Development in 2016

• Give Me Your Business Card • www.icsc.org/events-and-programs/details/west-florida-idea-exchange4/ • http://www.jllretail.com/research

Get The Report…