wfp initiatives
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Expert Meeting – Requirements of Weather Markets WMOExpert Meeting – Requirements of Weather Markets WMO
December 5,December 5, 2007 2007 Ulrich Hess, Chief of Business Risk PlanningUlrich Hess, Chief of Business Risk Planning
WFP InitiativesWFP Initiatives
AGENDAAGENDA
• WFP & WFP Strategy
• Initiatives– WFP/IFAD partnership
• China
• Global Weather Risk Market Making
– Ethiopia Phase II
WFPWFP
RESPONSE IN EMERGENCIES
CORE TARGETED PROGRAMMES
HAVING THE BEST ANALYTICAL AND OPERATIONAL TOOLBOX AVAILABLE
HANDING OVER TO PARTNERS
TRANSFERRING SKILLS AND KNOWLEDGE TO COUNTRIES
INVESTING IN PREVENTION
PRECURSOR EFFORTS FOLLOW ON EFFORTS
PARTNERSHIPS
operations in 78 countries
Budget of USD 2.9 billion88 million people assisted4 million tonnes of food
ETHIOPIA PHASE IIETHIOPIA PHASE II
Occ
urr
ence
(n
o. o
f ye
ars)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 0 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180
Early Livelihood protection costs ($US million)
Num
ber
of y
ears
by
drou
ght s
ever
ity
CATASTROPHIC DROUGHTMILD DROUGHTNO DROUGHT
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 0 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180
Early Livelihood protection costs ($US million)
Num
ber
of y
ears
by
drou
ght s
ever
ity
CATASTROPHIC DROUGHTMILD DROUGHTNO DROUGHT
Drought severity – Early Livelihood Protection costs (Mil Euro)
InsuranceContingency Grant/Fund/WFP CEMOP
Flash AppealProductive Safety Net
7.3 Mil Safety Net Beneficiaries 6.7 Mil Livelihood Protection Target Beneficiaries
WFP/IFAD GLOBAL WEATHER WFP/IFAD GLOBAL WEATHER RISK MARKET MAKINGRISK MARKET MAKING
• Core team of Experts & Market Makers
• Create Global and national public goods that enable weather risk markets– Weather Data (real time+historical) & Weather
Data Infrastructure– R&D– Technical Assistance for demonstration projects
• Crowd in Weather Risk Takers
……to large safety net contracts…to large safety net contracts…
Occ
urr
ence
(n
o. o
f ye
ars)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 0 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180
Early Livelihood protection costs ($US million)
Num
ber
of y
ears
by
drou
ght s
ever
ity
CATASTROPHIC DROUGHTMILD DROUGHTNO DROUGHT
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 0 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180
Early Livelihood protection costs ($US million)
Num
ber
of y
ears
by
drou
ght s
ever
ity
CATASTROPHIC DROUGHTMILD DROUGHTNO DROUGHT
Drought severity – Early Livelihood Protection costs ($US Mil)
InsuranceContingency Grant/Fund/WFP CEMOP
Flash AppealProductive Safety Net
8.3 Mil Safety Net Beneficiaries 7 Mil Livelihood Protection Target Beneficiaries
HENCE: LARGER SHARE OF HENCE: LARGER SHARE OF NON-OECDNON-OECD CONTRACTSCONTRACTS….….
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000/1 2001/2 2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7
Other
Europe
Asia
NA South
NA East
NA Mwest
NA West
Distribution of total number of contracts by region 2000-2007
2008-2011
……AND SIZABLE NON-OECD MARKETS!AND SIZABLE NON-OECD MARKETS!
$0
$5'000
$10'000
$15'000
$20'000
$25'000
$30'000
$35'000
$40'000
$45'000
$50'000
2000/1 2001/2 2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7
CME Winter
CME Summer
OTC Winter
OTC Summer
2008-2011
ChinaChina
• GoC/IFAD/WFP Weather Index Insurance Feasibility Study–Flood Index based Protection
–Drought Index Insurance
• Demonstration and replication effects
CONCLUSION: Weather Index CONCLUSION: Weather Index based risk transfer is based risk transfer is
important....important....• Destitution
• Dignity
• Risk financing Cost
• Climate Change
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