wfs conference prof brian o connell

South Africa

EDUCATION 2030

Imagineering South Africa’s Future to2030

• Will not seek to describe education in the 21st

century in any detail

• Focus will be on :

1. Why education matters1. Why education matters

2. What human attributes are needed for SouthAfrican to succeed in a rapidly changingenvironment, and

3. The role that education in South Africa must play tohelp South Africa(ns) to develop such attributes

2030: A Watershed

“By 2030 the demand for resources will create acrisis with dire consequences

Demand for food and energy will jump 50% by 2030and for fresh water by 30%, as the population topsand for fresh water by 30%, as the population tops8.3 billion. Climate change will exacerbate matters inunpredictable ways”. Beddington.

“Change is now ubiquitous, non-linear andpersistent” Nixon

Dalin’s 10 Revolutions

• 1. The knowledge and information revolution• 2. The population explosion• 3. Globalisation• 4. The economic revolution• 5. The technological revolution• 5. The technological revolution• 6. The ecological revolution• 7. The social/cultural revolution• 8. The aesthetic revolution• 9. The political revolution• 10. The values revolution.

South Africa’s Triple Challenge

• Build a democratic state

• Integrate itself into the competitive arena ofinternational production and finance.

• Reconstruct domestic social and economic relationsto eradicate and redress the inequitable patterns ofownership, wealth and social and economic practicesthat were shaped by segregation and apartheid

WHY EDUCATION MATTERS

• Social thinkers from Confucius through Buddha,Plato, Aquinas, Ibn Khaldun, Calvin, Newton,Rousseau, Comte, Mill, Marx, Gramsci, Nyerere toWallerstein, Castro and Castells in our present day allallocate a special place in their theories ofallocate a special place in their theories ofdevelopment to knowledge.

• Education for them is the foundation for whateverform of development or progress one espouses.

• Manual Castells: “knowledge and networks”

160000 years ago humansappeared on earth

By 1960 there were3 billion people on earth

By 2000 the World had6 billion people

(Doubled in just 40 years)

By 2010 the World has

almost 7 billion people

By 2050 the World will have

10-15 billion people

By 2006 Africa had justunder 1 billion people

In 2050 Africa will have just

under 2 billion people

In some African states half ormore of the population is under

25 years old:

South Africa

Population 1950 = 13 million

South AfricaPopulation 1990 = 39 million

South Africa

Population 2010 = 49 million

Some Relevant S A Statistics

• Population : 49million

• GDP: $287 billion

• GDP per capita : $5,600

• Unemployment: 25.2% (Conservative)• Unemployment: 25.2% (Conservative)

• State grants of all kinds: More the 12 million

• No. of Taxpayers: ± 7.5 million (5.4 Individual)

• Education budget as % of revenue: 20%

Taxpayers and Social Grants

20 % 90%

10% 30%

90%

SENSE-MAKING and CHANGE

70%

Big Question

• What kind of society must we be in order to meetthe challenges of 2030?

• Are we now ready to deal with (understand and actupon) our present reality and are we developing thecompetences necessary to transform ourselvescompetences necessary to transform ourselvesrapidly so as to deal with significant current andfuture social and natural environmental changes

• What vision, leadership, processes, tools and otherresources are necessary to take us there.

Starting Points

• “We need to wise up or change course orhardly a decade from now, Zimbabwe will beour destination, our reality”.our destination, our reality”.

Barney Mthombothi

Education in South AfricaMust Change

• Conditions for excellence absent (Leviathan)

• No strong modern Learning culture

• Colonial and Apartheid legacies

• 1976 Soweto legacy• 1976 Soweto legacy

• 1994: Transformation (narrow conception)

• No national discourse

• No consolidated community agency

Leviathan: Thomas Hobbes

"Whatsoever therefore is consequent to a time of Warre,where every man is Enemy to every man; the same is

consequent to the time, wherein men (sic) live without othersecurity than what their own strength, and their owninvention shall furnish them with. In such condition,there is no place for Industry; because the fruit thereofthere is no place for Industry; because the fruit thereofis uncertain; and consequently no Culture of the Earth; noNavigation, nor use of the commodities that may be importedby Sea; no commodious Building; no Instruments of moving,and removing such things as require much force; no Knowledgeof the face of the Earth; no account of Time; no Arts; no Letters;no Society; and which is worst of all, continuall feare,and danger of violent death; And the life of man (sic), solitary,poore, nasty, brutish, and short.

Education in South Africa

• Conditions for excellence absent (Leviathan)

• Colonial and Apartheid legacies (War)

• Exclusivity (We are different)

• No strong modern Learning culture• No strong modern Learning culture

• 1976 Soweto legacy

• 1994: Transformation:

• No national discourse

Education in South Africa

• Curriculum 2005 fantasy

• Absence of strong professional teachingculture

• Binary thinking: ambivalence about science• Binary thinking: ambivalence about science

• Cautious national leadership

• No consolidated community agency

• Unwillingness by stakeholders to face up.

The Continents: To Scale

• The land area of each territory is shown here.• The total land area of these 200 territories is 13,056 million hectares. Divided up equally that

would be 2.1 hectares for each person. A hectare is 100 metres by 100 metres.• However, population is not evenly spread: Australia's land area is 21 times bigger than

Japan's, but Japan's population is more than six times bigger than Australia's.

Primary Education

• "Everyone has the right to education", according to the Universal Declaration of HumanRights. The second Millennium Development Goal is to achieve universal primary education.In 2002, 5 out of 6 eligible children were enrolled in primary education worldwide. However,enrolment does not guarantee attendance, or completion.

• If primary education continues beyond the expected years, enrolment rates can exceed100%. In Argentina there is an impressive 108% enrolment. On the other side of the AtlanticOcean 30% of children in Angola are enrolled in primary school.

Secondary Education

• Worldwide approximately 73 million children are enrolled in each year ofsecondary education out of a possible 122 million children. That is only 60%getting a secondary education.

• In China on average 89% get a secondary education, but in India it is only 49%.Figures in Africa are even lower: 45% in Northern Africa, 25% in SoutheasternAfrica and 13% in Central Africa. The lowest is 5% in Niger. What is compulsory insome territories is a rarity in others.

Tertiary Education

• The highest percentage of the student aged populationenrolled is in Finland. Finland is 3.6 times the world average,with 140 times the chance of a tertiary education than inMozambique.

Science Research

• Scientific papers cover physics, biology, chemistry, mathematics, clinical medicine, biomedical research,engineering, technology, and earth and space sciences.

• The number of scientific papers published by researchers in the United States was more than three timesas many as were published by the second highest-publishing population, Japan.

• There is more scientific research, or publication of results, in richer territories. This locational bias is suchthat roughly three times more scientific papers per person living there are published in Western Europe,North America, and Japan, than in any other region.

New Patents

• In 2002, 312 thousand patents were granted around the world. More than a third of these were granted inJapan. Just under a third were granted in the United States.

• A patent is supposed to protect the ideas and inventions that people have. Patenting something will thenallow the owner of the patent to charge others for the usage of an idea or invention. The aim is to rewardthe creator for their hard work or intelligence. But patents can prevent people from using good ideasbecause they cannot afford to do so.

• A quarter of all territories had no new patents in 2002, so will not profit from these in future years asothers will.

Evidence of Danger

• Post-graduate Profiles

• Research Profiles

PhD production rates

157

188

140

221

150.00

200.00

250.00

Ph

D's

/ye

ar/

mil

lio

no

fp

op

ula

tio

n

1999

2000

• Research Profiles

23

114

107

53 43

0.00

50.00

100.00

South

Africa

China India Japan South

Korea

Taiwan UK USA Australia Brazil

Ph

D's

/ye

ar/

mil

lio

no

fp

op

ula

tio

n

2000

2001

2002

2003

55715780

4000

5000

6000

7000

ACADEMIC LITERACYNBT Benchmark Levels, February 2009

Basic

851

0

1000

2000

3000

Total

Basic

Intermediate

Proficient

6125

4000

5000

6000

7000

QUANTITATIVE LITERACYNBT Benchmark Levels, February 2009

3055 3022

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Total

Basic

Intermediate

Proficient

7788

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

MATHEMATICSNBT Benchmark Levels, February 2009

Basic

2146

738

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Total

Basic

Intermediate

Proficient

194

150

200

250

ACADEMIC LITERACYNBT Benchmark Levels, February 2009

Basic

Intermediate

Proficient

7 9

30

55 51

21 18

59

0

50

100

Commerce Law Science

UWC

131

141

100

120

140

160

QUANTITATIVE LITERACY

NBT Benchmark Levels, February 2009

Basic

Intermediate

Proficient

32

39

47

35

4 4

11

0

20

40

60

80

Commerce Law Science

UWC

110

142

100

120

140

160

MATHEMATICSNBT Benchmark Levels, February 2009

Basic

Intermediate

Proficient

National Benchmark Tests Project:Pilot Test Reports

Mathematics Benchmark Levels

23 23

10

20

40

60

80

Commerce Science

UWC

EDUCATION IN 2030

• It is quite possible, on the basis on the amazingtechnological advances now being made,especially with respect to communication,to suggest what organisations and tools educationwould have at its disposal in 2030, and howwould have at its disposal in 2030, and howdramatically this could change the ways in whicheducation would develop.

Sources of Information andPrediction

• Science fiction has always been a source ofpossibilities and the extent to these have eventuatedis amazing.

• Today, a new breed of knowledge creators calledToday, a new breed of knowledge creators calledfuturist, are confidently going about their business ofusing the present to forecast the future.

• Other disciplines have worked in this area as well.We think of speculative historians like Spengler,Toynbee and Marx. Also of social scientists like DavidKaplan and Manual Castells, and poets like W B Yeats

To Survive: Education Must Change

• Created for industrial age

• Mostly lock-step

• Teacher dominated

• Too much content (Per Dalin)• Too much content (Per Dalin)

• Too shallow (Per Dalin)

• Not connected to life

CURRICULUM: DRIVERS

• Relevant

• Learner-centred

• Respond to Dalin’s revolutions

• Communication focused• Communication focused

• Critical engagement highlighted

• Make wide use of technology

• Broaden knowledge

CURRICULUM GOALS

• Self Confidence

• Self Direction

• Self Sufficiency

• Self Initiation• Self Initiation

• Self Discipline

• Openness

Richard Hartjen

CURRICULUM: WHAT’S TO BE LEARNT• Learn how to learn

• History of cultures and religions

• Respect for diversity

• How economies work

• Develop as scientific sense

• What the big environmental challenges/dangers are

• Personal responsibility to know and act

• Ability to work with others

• The significance of relationships

• Learning is labour

• The power of emotions

CURRICULUM: WHAT’S TO BE LEARNT

• 21st Century content includes the basic coresubjects of reading, writing, and arithmetic-but also emphasizes global awareness,financial/economic literacy, and health issues.financial/economic literacy, and health issues.The skills fall into three categories: learningand innovations skills; digital literacy skills;and life and career skills. Charles Fadel

CURRICULUM: WHAT’S TO BE LEARNT

• Our future lies in connecting and understanding

• It will be shaped by people’s sense making withrespect to the different other

• Core of Maths, Science and Reading and Writing• Core of Maths, Science and Reading and Writing

• Cultural history and big religious ideas to understand

• others

• Analysis, reflection and critical thinking

• Create things together

• Develop consciousness of agency in making history

CURRICULUM: WHAT’S TO BE LEARNT• Understand the significance and power of

relationships

• Understand of power of emotions

• Develop confidence in living with uncertainty

• Work out what you dream for and develop the• Work out what you dream for and develop thecompetence to pursue that dream

• Participate in democratic activity

• Learn to scan, analyse and synthesise large amountsof material quickly

• Master the many different ways of obtainingknowledge

WILEY: MAJOR CULTURAL CHANGE

The old The new

• analogue digital

• tethered mobile

• isolated connected• isolated connected

• generic personal

• consuming creative

• closed open

LEARNING TOOLS:

• Open access to information

• Technology central to the learning project

• New teaching site designs

• Teacher physical presence not essential• Teacher physical presence not essential

• Innovative curricula

• Innovative assessment

Learning Tools

• While technology critical for learning in the21st Century the most important learningtools are our minds, our hearts and our hands,all working together. (Fadel)all working together. (Fadel)

Traditional Classroom

Learning Studio

Display Space

A NEW MISSION FOR SCHOOLS

• The school is not just a tool for youth, but is aresource for the entire community it serves: Providesco-working and incubator resources for people withideas that want to involve youth, and facilitatesinnovative, non-formal, informal, and invisibleinnovative, non-formal, informal, and invisibleopportunities. (Anon)

• A new breed of teacher/facilitators are trained andrecruited to do away with download-style pedagogy,and rather serve as curators of ideas and enablers ofcreativity and innovation. (Anon)

Relevance of Schools andResidential Universities in 2030

• Schools, especially primary schools relevant for:

1. Socialisation role

2. Creating sense of teams

3. Induction into knowledge processes

• Residential Universities relevant for:• Residential Universities relevant for:

1. Content

2. Support services

3. Social life

4. Qualifications

But elitist and no longer have monopoly

OUR FORMAL EDUCATION NEXUSOUR WAR MACHINE

THE STATE

CURRICULUM PEDAGOGY MANAGEMENT

LEARNERS

COMMUNITY

The Fault Line: Across the Globe

The Second Coming: W B Yeats

• Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falconcannot hear the falconer;

• Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mereanarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere Theceremony of innocence is drowned;ceremony of innocence is drowned;

• The best lack all conviction, while the worst are fullof passionate intensity

7

6

5

Service

Internal Cohesion

Making a Difference

THE WHY IS MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THE WHAT AND THE HOW

Stage 2: Internal Cohesion

Stage 3: External CohesionServing humanity and the planet

Collaborating with partners

7 LEVELS OF CONSCIOUSNESS

3

2

1

5

4

Internal Cohesion

Transformation

Stage 1: Personal MasteryDevelopment of a healthy

positive egoNeed to overcome

deficiency perspectiveSurvival

Relationship

Self-Esteem

Stage 2: Internal CohesionFinding meaning in existence

Balancing self-interestwith group interest

Barrett