what drives the demand for housing? · “the largest over - the-year percentage increase occurred...
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What Drives the Demand for Housing?
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
'90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11
Population Growth
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
'90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11
Employment Growth
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
'90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11
Taxable Sales Growth
Source: Nevada State Demographer, US Bureau of Labor Statistics & Nevada Department of Taxation
Broader Economic Conditions Population Growth
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
North
Dak
otaDi
strict
of C
olumb
iaUt
ahCo
lorad
oTe
xas
Neva
daSo
uth D
akota
Florid
aAr
izona
Was
hingto
nSo
uth C
aroli
naW
yomi
ngIda
hoNo
rth C
aroli
naHa
waii
Monta
naDe
lawar
eOk
lahom
aVi
rgini
aCa
liforn
iaOr
egon
Geor
giaMi
nnes
otaMa
rylan
dUn
ited S
tates
Mass
achu
setts
Nebr
aska
Alas
kaTe
nnes
see
Louis
iana
Indian
aIow
aNe
w Yo
rkNe
w Je
rsey
Kentu
cky
Alab
ama
Miss
ouri
Arka
nsas
Wisc
onsin
Kans
asMi
ssiss
ippi
Ohio
New
Hamp
shire
Mich
igan
Conn
ectic
utRh
ode I
sland
Illino
isVe
rmon
tNe
w Me
xico
Penn
sylva
niaMa
ineW
est V
irgini
a
Source: US Census
North Dakota +22,048 District of Columbia +13,022 Utah +46,001 Colorado +78,909 Texas +387,397 Nevada +35,782
“The largest over-the-year percentage increase occurred in
North Dakota (+5.2 percent), followed
by Nevada (+3.8 percent) and Florida
(+3.3 percent).”
Prospect Visits per Month Greater Reno-Sparks-Tahoe
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jul-1
1
Sep-
11
Nov-1
1
Jan-
12
Mar-1
2
May-1
2
Jul-1
2
Sep-
12
Nov-1
2
Jan-
13
Mar-1
3
May-1
3
Jul-1
3
Sep-
13
Nov-1
3
Jan-
14
Mar-1
4
Source: Economic Development Authority of Western Nevada
Prospect Visits per Month Greater Reno-Sparks-Tahoe
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jul-1
1
Sep-
11
Nov-1
1
Jan-
12
Mar-1
2
May-1
2
Jul-1
2
Sep-
12
Nov-1
2
Jan-
13
Mar-1
3
May-1
3
Jul-1
3
Sep-
13
Nov-1
3
Jan-
14
Mar-1
4
Source: Economic Development Authority of Western Nevada
2011 Avg. = 4.2
2012 Avg. = 7.8
2013 Avg. = 9.8 2014 Avg. = 10.8
Assisted New Jobs Greater Reno-Sparks-Tahoe
3,460
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Source: Economic Development Authority of Western Nevada; *2008-2010 estimate based on 1-year numbers
5 Year Average*
New Home Closings Statewide
17,122
26,944
26,524
31,308
37,065
45,455
42,009
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13Source: CoreLogic
New Home Closings Statewide
17,122
26,944
26,524
31,308
37,065
45,455
42,009
23,616 11,862
6,487
7,104
6,327
8,433
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13Source: CoreLogic
New Home Closings Statewide
17,122
26,944
26,524
31,308
37,065
45,455
42,009
23,616 11,862
6,487
7,104
6,327
8,433
9,310
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13Source: CoreLogic
+10.4%
New Home Median Sales Pricing Statewide
$187,500
$283,800
$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
$230,000
$250,000
$270,000
$290,000
Source: CoreLogic
Existing Home Sales & Pricing Statewide
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500
Jan-
12Ap
r-12
Jul-1
2Oc
t-12
Jan-
13Ap
r-13
Jul-1
3Oc
t-13
Jan-
14
Closings
Source: CoreLogic
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
Jan-
12Ap
r-12
Jul-1
2Oc
t-12
Jan-
13Ap
r-13
Jul-1
3Oc
t-13
Jan-
14
Thou
sand
s
Median Sales Price Median Price
Y-O-Y Growth
State House Price Index Q1 2014 1-Year Change
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Purchase-Only Index, Seasonally Adjusted
Less than 0%
0% to 6%
6% to 10%
10% to 14%
Greater than 14%
#1
Residential Permitting Statewide
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Source: US Census
Peak to Present: -4,695 (-79.7%)
Residential Permitting Statewide
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000Multi-Family Single-Family
Source: US Census
Northern Nevada Snapshot
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Home Closings
New Existing
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Thou
sand
s
Median Sales Price
New Existing
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Residential Units Permitted
Source: UNR Center for Regional Studies, UNLV Center for Business & Economic Research
Interests Rates Are Cheap, Yet Loans Are Still Declining
Source: CoreLogic
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Thou
sand
s
Statewide Loan Count 30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate
Loans 30 Days Past Due
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey Q1 2014
Less than 1.5%
1.5% to 2.4%
2.5% to 3.2%
3.3% or More
#43
US Average: 2.4% Nevada: 1.7%
Loans Seriously Delinquent
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey Q1 2014
Less than 3.0%
3.0% to 4.9%
5.0% to 6.9%
7.0% or More
Nevada: 7.3% US Average: 5.0%
#4
Share of Homes with High Leverage
Note: Represents the share of homes that have a loan-to-value ratio of 80 percent or higher. Source: CoreLogic
Real Estate Sector Res. Supply to Play a Role, But New Investments a Plus
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Effe
ctive
Inve
ntor
y (Mo
nths
)
Loans Share of
O/S Loans National
Rank
30 Days 7,710 1.7% 43
60 Days 3,011 0.7% 40
90 Days + 17,199 3.8% 2
Foreclosures 16,013 3.5% 8
Total 43,934 9.6% 13
Resale Availability (MLS)* Mortgage Delinquency
Note: National rank (1=Highest Rate)
Source: SalesTraq & Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey Q1 2014 Note: Refers only to the Las Vegas area
107,622
52,195
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14Th
ousa
nds
Subprime Loans
Potential Housing Market Issues
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
220,082
65,359
0
50
100
150
200
250
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Thou
sand
s
ARM Loans 56,028
16,013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Thou
sand
s
Foreclosure Inventory
#17 #19 #24
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac State Borrower Assistance Map
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, through December 31, 2013
33,001 Loan Modifications
Homeowner’s Equity
Source: CoreLogic
Positive 54.6%
Under Water 45.4%
Q1 2013
Positive 70.6%
Under Water 29.4%
Q1 2014
Positive 38.8% Under
Water 61.2%
Q1 2012
Negative Equity by State
Source: CoreLogic
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
NV FL AZ MS IL OH MI GA RI MD NH WI
NJ LA VA MO CT DE CA MA ID AR NM SC MN AL TN NC NE WA IA KY KS WV CO PA OR UT IN OK NY DC ME WY HI AK ND MT TX
Near Negative Equity
Negative Equity
Negative Equity by State
Source: CoreLogic
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
NV FL AZ MS IL OH MI GA RI MD NH WI
NJ LA VA MO CT DE CA MA ID AR NM SC MN AL TN NC NE WA IA KY KS WV CO PA OR UT IN OK NY DC ME WY HI AK ND MT TX
Negative Equity: 29.4% (#1) Near Negative Equity: 3.2% (#29)
Investor (“Cash”) Purchase Share Statewide
Source: Applied Analysis
50.9%
39.2%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14
New to Existing Home Price Ratio Statewide
Source: CoreLogic
199.1% 164.0%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
The Concept of Value
REALTOR®
Seller
Buyer
Appraiser
Lender
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