what insurers can learn from the zika outbreak

Outbreak update

Zika Virus

What Insurers Should Learn

The WHO declared the Brazil outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International

Concern in February 2016.

Some scientists have called for the cancellation of the Summer Olympics to be

held in August in Rio de Janeiro.

Source: https://rioolympicslater.org

Does this mean Zika is a significant pandemic threat?

Zika virus is transmitted through the bite of an infected Aedes aegypti mosquito or sex.

Spread through blood transfusion is a strong possibility.

Source: http://www.cdc.gov/zika/transmission/blood-transfusion.html

Large numbers of Zika virus infections have been reported in Brazil

since May 2015.

cases by December 2015 (number likely underreported due to the

mild nature of clinical symptoms).

Estimates put the total at

500,000 to 1.5 milliOn

Zika infection in adults usually causes short-lasting symptoms associated with mild fever.

But it can cause Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) – a rare and serious neurological disorder.

Zika is also a cause of microcephaly – a devastating developmental condition in newborns.

Source: http://www.aafp.org/news/health-of-the-public/20160420zikacausal.html

500,000 visitors

are expected in Brazil for the Summer Olympics.

But calling the Olympics off, or moving them, is unlikely to significantly influence the international spread of Zika.

After all, Brazil is only

1 of nearly 40 countries affected by the current outbreak

in the Americas.

No autochthonous confirmed cases to date

April-June 2016 (7)

January-March 2016 (22)

October-December 2015 (10)

Prior to October 2015 (1)

Countries with confirmed autochthonous cases of Zika virus

Updated as of July 14, 2016

Source: http://www.paho.org/hq/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=11599&Itemid=41691&lang=en

Pregnant women are advised not to travel to Brazil.

However, precautions are still being taken.

Source: http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/fivering_circus/2016/05/a_history_of_condoms_in_the_olympic_village_from_8_500_in_seoul_to_450_000.html

will be handed out to athletes in Rio by the International

Olympic Committee – a record number.

450kcondoms

Rio 2016

100kcondomsBeijing 2008

150kcondomsLondon 2012

Yet accidentally transporting home an infected insect could introduce Zika to new areas.

Infected travellers could return with Zika in their blood and pass it on through mosquito bites or sex.

What does this mean for insurers?

Although Zika infection is unlikely to cause long-term disability in adults,

Projections suggest that Zika could lead to a moderate increase in total disability claims for a

limited period of time in heavily affected areas.

20% are left severely

disabled.

5% of those infected

with GBS die

Source: http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra111452; http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/205189/1/zikasitrep_14Apr2016_eng.pdf

Source: http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra111452; http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/205189/1/zikasitrep_14Apr2016_eng.pdf

The recent rise in microcephaly is clearly linked to Zika.

Insurers may think it prudent to exclude benefits for congenital conditions in unborn children.

Thankfully, there are some

signs that the worst might be over in Brazil.

Epidemiological reports show a decline in the number

of newly reported cases (confirmed and not

confirmed) of microcephaly.

The proportion of confirmed microcephaly cases in the analysed cases has been declining.

Newly Reported Cases of Microcephaly in Brazil per Calender Week in 2016

Source: Own table based on http://portalsaude.saude.gov.br/index.php/o-ministerio/principal/leia-mais-o-ministerio/197-secretaria-svs/20799-microcefalia

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

W3 W5 W7 W9 W11 W13 W15 W17 W19 W21 W23 W25

In many ways, Zika is yet another test of what could happen in the event of a sustained viral attack on global public health.

So it’s about being prepared.

© 2016 General Re Corporation | This presentation is intended to provide background information for our clients and professional staff. It is time sensitive and may need to be revised and updated periodically.

If you are interested in more information about how Zika could affect your

business, get in touch.

Tim EppertLife/Health Senior Actuary,

Cologne

+ 49 221 9738 579

tim.eppert@genre.com