what’s the future of · what the impending recession will mean for demand for private healthcare?...

What’s the future of the independent healthcare market?

Barbara HakinChairHealth Tech Alliance

ramsayhealth.co.uk

Lis Neil, Director of Strategy

“What is the future of the independent healthcare market?” How providers can navigate the new post-covid

world

The Independent Healthcare Providers Network (IHPN) Summit

14th October 2020

Ramsay Health Care

Global Health Operator

Economies of scale

Best practice

Cost leadership

Speed to market

Innovation

#1 Australia

#1 France

#1 Scandinavia

Differentiated

Business

Scale

Diversified portfolio

Industry leading

quality

Deep and

experienced

leadership

Market Leading

Positions

Employees

77,000

Locations

480

Countries

11

Patient visits/admissions

8,500,000

4

“What’s the future of the independent healthcare market?” How providers can

navigate the new post-COVID world……..

5

What the next year will bring for the sector?

• Living with operational uncertainty, frustration &

nervousness

• Recognition that the independent sector is a key player in

supporting the NHS to clear waiting lists and deliver

solutions locally

• Continued collaboration across the independent sector

• Potential to change direction with the rise and fall of

COVID rates

• Public demanding reassurances of safety

• Acceleration of digitalisation and new pathways

• More lateral collaborations within and outside of the

industry

How can we balance private and NHS patients in light of a

public health service under strain?

• Definitely role for the private sector working with the NHS

in providing capacity challenging operational management

• Innovative approach to partnerships

• Different approach to costing and contracting models

What the impending recession will mean for demand for

private healthcare?

• Exacerbation of demand outstripping capacity

• Prioritisation of certain specialties and clinically urgent leading

to people seeking alternative private provision

• Short term disposable income before the recession takes hold

• Insurers seeking pathways and technology to control referrals

Risk of contraction of the corporate market in the longer-term

• Emerging strategies from insurers and tech companies to

capture and harness private demand

• Uncertainty could lead to more cautious decision making on

the part of the public and providers

How a safe and efficient service can be delivered in a socially

distanced world?

• New ways of delivering pathways: e.g virtual consultations,

virtual diagnosis, virtual follow up.

• Risk assessment perhaps more stringent than ever before

• We do not know what the longer term health impact of COVID

is going to be and its impact upon health and health systems

• The more we know about COVID the likelihood that clinical

safety guidance and therefore practice will change.

• Greater focus on outcomes

Andrew CoombsCommercial DirectorHCA Healthcare

IHPN Conference14 October 2020

Covid sub sector impactDiagnostics Digital Health /

Healthcare IT

Specialty Pharma /

Generics

CDMOs / CMOs

Medical /

Regulatory

Affairs

Children’s

services

ClinicsCROs

Homecare

Elderly

Residential

care

Drug discovery

/ pre-clinical

Mental Health

Private

hospitals

Positive long-term outlook

but facing challenges

Fundamentally strong

sub-sectors

WeakStrongLong term sub-sector outlook

Mid-term

COVID

impact

Highly positive

Highly

negative

Largely

unaffected

Modestly

negative

Specialist care

Source: Ernst & Young/Apposite

Traditional

Medical devices

Infection

control

UK Healthcare Market Review

Short term - what does the future holdShort term (end of 2020)

• PMI backlog – soon back to normal

• Self-pay – will probably lag - can providers convert enquiries

• International – recovery was forecast to start later this year, but second wave

• PPU’s vulnerable with a couple of exceptions

Medium term (next 2 years)• Macro-economic outlook – more downside than upside

• World recovery – global trade war (China, US), oil prices

• UK recovery + Brexit impact

• trade, ‘PMI-included’ jobs e.g. head office, City finance, legal, accounting, etc.

• Stock market, house prices, unemployment, inflation

Assumptions

• Patient confidence; a managed second wave; no bad winter flu season; no Covid outbreaks in a private hospital

Long term - what does the future holdLong term

• PMI - even more pressure for pathway management to contain costs

• Self-pay – consumer confidence as important as NHS waiting lists

• International – reasonable prospects – ongoing need, lack of local doctors, oil price recovery, although volatile with risks involved (e.g. debt)

• NHS – will the NHS become a key customer in the Central London market

• PPU – vulnerability – high acuity, bread and butter

• Hospital profitability

• Governance, Covid-related costs, wages, over-capacity, new business models

Longer term• Reduction in IPT

• Home working => Remote consultation => Outer London diagnostics => Outer London treatment

• Consultants more interested in employment due to lower risk to income

Q&A