where to invest in africa - ahk südafrikasuedafrika.ahk.de/.../cape_town/rmb_where_to_invest... ·...
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20CAMEROON
19MOZAMBIQUE
18NAMIBIA
17SENEGAL
16ZAMBIA
15UGANDA
14MAURITIUS
13BOTSWANA
12RWANDA
11TUNISIA
Drop in FDI
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ethiopia GhanaKenya MozambiqueUganda Tanzania
US$
MOZ: Coal/Oil/Gas/Sentiment
GHANA: Lower oil/gold/cocoa prices
ETHIOPIA: Rising manufacturing, consumer and retail sectors
UGANDA: Lower oil prices
KENYA: Potential oil and gas sector
bn
FDI Target sectors
Top sectorsFDI projects (% share
in 2016)Top destinations (by
projects) %Technology, media and
telecommunications (TMT) 20South Africa 20
Egypt 11Nigeria 8
Consumer products and retail (CPR) 15
South Africa 40Egypt 13
Nigeria 7
Business services 12South Africa 21
Morocco 13Egypt 9
Financial services 10Ghana 16
South Africa 15Nigeria 9
Transports and Logistics 8Morocco 23
South Africa 10Mozambique 8
Real estate, hospitality and construction (RHC) 7
Morocco 20South Africa 16Mozambique 13
Cleantech 6Morocco 21
Egypt 21Cote d'Ivoire 21
Automotive 5Morocco 42
South Africa 18Algeria 9
Diversified industrial products (DIP) 5
South Africa 32Egypt 16
Nigeria 13
Coal, oil and natural gas 4Egypt 32
South Africa 14Tanzania 11
Strictly Private and Confidential
Africa’s two-tone growth story
Warnings ahead!SSA growth on the rise but country growth is varied
-1
1
3
4
6
8
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
World Sub-Saharan Africa
Botswana Kenya
Mozambique Namibia
Nigeria Tanzania
Zambia Ghana%
Risks to growth
Commodity wobble?
Anemic global growth
Security concerns
Lower for longer rainfall
Source: IMF, RMB Global Markets 10
Strictly Private and Confidential
A tale of two economic structures
Tanzania’s export basket: Varied and can weather the stormNigeria export basket: Highly concentrated and susceptible to shocks
Source: RMB Global Markets 11
Mineral fuels94%
Stones and metals, 25%
Ores, slag and ash, 8%
Vegetables, 7%
Animal vegetable fats, 6%Tobacco, 5%
Other, 49%
Strictly Private and Confidential
The need for structural reform
Informal economy as a percentage of total GDP Gross government debt/revenue (%)
12
100 148 196 244 292 340
Nigeria
Angola
Zambia
Cote d'Ivoire
Africa & Middle East
Rwanda
Ethiopia
Namibia
Emerging Europe
25 34 43 52 61 70
Nigeria
Tanzania
Benin
Angola
Ghana
Zambia
Cote d'Ivoire
Kenya
Rwanda
South Africa
Source: IMF, Fitch Ratings
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