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Dr. Jennifer M. Gidley���President, World Futures Studies Federation���
������
Prepared for the���21st WFSF World Conference ���
Bucharest, Romania, June 26th – 28th 2013
���Where to Tomorrow ���for Futures Studies?���
Three Challenges for Futures Studies
1. “Megatrends of the Mind” 2. Complex Global-Societal Challenges 3. Is Futures Studies Evolving as a Field?
Dr. Jennifer M. GIDLEY © 2013
Dr. Jennifer M. GIDLEY © 2013
² Megatrends research in general has an external focus
² Megatrends of the mind research has an internal focus
² “Megatrends of the Mind” research (Gidley, 2010) refers to:
² Evolution within scholarly disciplines ² Evolution beyond disciplinary boundaries
² Approaches that theorise paradigm change ² Approaches that meta-cohere new knowledge
[Time will only allow me to address the first two of these four today]
Paris, France June 2013 3 Dr. Jennifer M. GIDLEY © 2013
² Evolution within Scholarly Disciplines ² Evolution beyond disciplinary boundaries
² Approaches that theorise paradigm change ² Approaches that meta-cohere new knowledge
Paris, France June 2013 Dr. Jennifer M. GIDLEY © 2013
Evolution within Scholarly Disciplines
Science:
² Newtonian building block physics > quantum possibilities & open systems, machine human to creative human
Philosophy:
² Modern analytic philosophy > postmodern & poststructural, comparative & global, synthesising & integral
Education:
² Formal factory model education > Steiner, Montessori, Dewey, Aurobindo, 1970s alternatives & 2000s postformal pedagogies
Psychology:
² Mechanistic, behaviourist psychology > humanistic & person-centred, transpersonal & postformal psychology.
Dr. Jennifer M. GIDLEY © 2013
² Evolution within scholarly disciplines
² Evolution beyond disciplinary boundaries ² Approaches that theorise paradigm change
² Approaches that meta-cohere new knowledge
Paris, France June 2013 Dr. Jennifer M. GIDLEY © 2013
Evolution beyond Disciplinary Boundaries
“In parallel with these disciplinary developments, disciplinary specialisation itself is being transcended via inter-, multi-, and
trans-disciplinary approaches.”
(Morin 2001; Nicolescu 2002).
“As knowledge breaks the disciplinary boundaries it also moves beyond old conceptions of time and space.”
(Gidley 2010)
Dr. Jennifer M. GIDLEY © 2013
Evolution beyond Disciplinary Boundaries
² Expanding Disciplinary Boundaries: ² Interdisciplinary, cross-disciplinary & transdisciplinary research
² Expanding Concepts of Time: ² Big history, macrohistory & futures studies
² Expanding Concepts of Space: ² From outer space to inner space & planetary consciousness
Dr. Jennifer M. GIDLEY © 2013
² Evolution within scholarly disciplines ² Evolution beyond disciplinary boundaries
² Approaches that theorise paradigm change ² Approaches that meta-cohere new knowledge [Time will not allow me to address these two]
REFERENCE: Gidley, J. M. (2010) Globally Scanning for “Megatrends of the Mind”: Potential Futures of Futures-Thinking, Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies, 42(10), pp. 1040-1048.
Paris, France June 2013
© 2013. Dr. Jennifer M. Gidley
Dr. Jennifer M. GIDLEY © 2013
Dr. Jennifer M. GIDLEY © 2013
What are the
complex global societal challenges
of the 21st century
that we must tackle
with our new thinking?
² Environmental degradation & more dramatic climate conditions;
² Over 3 billion people live in coastal cities at risk of rising sea levels (Copyright: Getty Images)
Dr. Jennifer M. GIDLEY © 2013
² Post“GFC”: “Limits to Growth” values even more pertinent
² How sustainable are Chinese cities of 50 Million people?
Dr. Jennifer M. GIDLEY © 2013
² Social and global justice are far from commonplace
² An estimated 100 million people are homeless worldwide Source: United Nations Commission on Human Rights, 2005.
Dr. Jennifer M. GIDLEY © 2013
² Cultural pluralism and the needs of the global south still require sustained focus;
² But as we all know, the so-called north-south divide is no longer just between countries but within them.
Dr. Jennifer M. GIDLEY © 2013
² The 19th century factory model of formal education is well past its “use-by-date” and needs to be postformalised.
² Yet it is being imported around the globe – the main concession to the 21st century being the addition of laptops when affordable.
Dr. Jennifer M. GIDLEY © 2013
Dr. Jennifer M. GIDLEY © 2013
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French ProspectiveGrew out of peace research
CreativeCritical
USA Future StudiesGrew out of war scenarios
PredictiveEmpirical
Future StudiesLate1960s
Origins
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Predictive-empirical: originated USA in the 1960s Critical-postmodern: originated Europe in the 1960s & 70s Cultural-interpretive: post-colonial & feminist critiques 1980s & 90s Prospective-activist: global response to “disempowered futures” Integrative-holistic: global response to complex global-societal challenges.
*Sources: Sohail Inayatullah, Richard Slaughter and Jennifer Gidley
An Integrative Framing of Futures Approaches*
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The Empirical Approach: “Predicting the Future”
The predictive-empirical approach originated in the USA from US defence intelligence
Predictive methodologies still dominate the popular literature
Empirical trends suggest a (singular) “probable future”
Underlying assumption: “TREND IS DESTINY”
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The Empirical Approach: “Predicting the Future”
Strengths:
² Perceived objectivity and values neutrality.
Weaknesses:
² Narrow in focus and lack of contextual awareness;
² Implication that trends are inevitable.
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The Critical-Postmodern Approach: ���Deconstructing the “One (and only) Future”
The critical-postmodern approach originated in Europe out of a critical social theory tradition.
Critical futurists emphasised plural “futureS” and “preferred futures”
Underlying assumption is normative: TREND IS NOT DESTINY
This led to Mankind 2000 & the World Futures Studies Federation.
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The Critical-Postmodern Approach: ���Deconstructing the “One (and only) Future”
Strengths:
² It makes explicit the—often tacit—contextual and values dimensions and thus questions ‘business as usual’.
Weaknesses:
² Perceived subjectivity, which can sometimes
lead to excessive relativism.
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OR
The Cultural-Interpretive Approach: ���Towards Alternative, Feminist and Non-Western Futures
The cultural-interpretive approach sought to include non-Western cultures.
Cultural futurists emphasise the multitude of “possible futures”
Underlying assumption includes alternative civilizational futures.
This includes feminist and non-Western futures.
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OR
Business as Usual
Feminist Futures
Youth Futures
The Cultural-Interpretive Approach: ���Towards Alternative, Feminist and Non-Western Futures
Strengths:
² Imagination, creativity and engagement with multiple perspectives.
Weaknesses:
² Proposed alternatives may lack feasibility, or be overpowered by the more dominant empiricist approach.
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The Prospective-Activist Approach: ���Participatory, Empowering and Transformative
The prospective-action research approach seeks to facilitate empowerment and transformation.
These futures could be referred to as “participatory futures”
Underlying assumption involves engagement and participation.
Early French futurists and later Swedish and Australian futurists.
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The Prospective-Activist Approach: ���Participatory, Empowering and Transformative
Strengths:
² It engages participants directly in projects,
² It empowers them to question and act on alternatives.
Weaknesses:
² If it does not also take account of relevant empirical research, it may lack legitimacy in the dominant positivist scientific circles.
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The Integrative-Holistic Approach: ���Long Term, Big Picture, Radical Change
The integrative-holistic futures approach is the broadest and deepest approach to futures.
It can facilitate and enable “integral or planetary futures”
Underlying assumptions are complex, integrative & transversal
It is thought to be new but this must be contested.
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The Integrative-Holistic Approach: ���Long Term, Big Picture, Radical Change
Strengths:
² Its breadth of scope enables integration of different methods for different contexts
Weaknesses:
² Too much breadth may lead to a lack of depth
² The ideological trap leads to contested claims about who is most integral (See two special issues of Futures).
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FUTURES STUDIES as a field has developed over five decades.
² Multiple theoretical and methodological approaches;
² Reflecting the evolutionary development in academic discourse;
² From scientific positivism in the early 20th century
² To transdiciplinarity of social sciences by the 21st century.
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YES: Summary of Development
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By Embracing the The Megatrends of the Mind
² Quantum physics and open systems;
² Postmodern and comparative philosophies;
² Critical social theories;
² Postformal psychology and education;
² Systemic, holistic and integral theories;
² Inter- and transdisciplinarity.
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By Tackling The Complex Global-societal Challenges
² Environmental degradation;
² The limits to growth;
² Social and global justice;
² The needs of the global south;
² The factory model of schooling.
Paris, France, June 2013
© 2013. Dr. Jennifer M. Gidley
Jennifer M. Gidley, PhD
President: World Futures Studies Federation (UNESCO Partner)
Visiting Professor: Philosophy Department, Palacky University, Czech Republic
Adjunct Professor: California Institute of Integral Studies, San Francisco
Fellow: Botin Platform for Innovation in Education, Santander, Spain
Visiting Fellow: CERI, SciencesPo, Paris, France
www.jennifergidley.com
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