whither demand? - growth in prospect
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Whither Demand? - Growth In Prospect
Roger Lee
Tecnon OrbiChem Marketing Seminar at APIC 2015
Seoul, 7 May 2015
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Actual
Forecast 2008
Current Forecast
% AAGR
APIC 2015
WORLD GDP GROWTH 1995-2020
Source: World Bank & Probe Economics
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Actual
2008 Forecast
Current Forecast
APIC 2015
WORLD GDP GROWTH 1995-2020
(Billion Constant 2000 Dollars)
Source: World Bank & Probe Economics
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
Source: World Bank & Probe Economics
APIC 2015
WORLD GDP GROWTH BY REGION 1995-2007
(Billion Constant 2005 Dollars)
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
World
Source: World Bank & Probe Economics
APIC 2015
WORLD GDP GROWTH BY REGION 2008-2014
(Billion Constant 2005 Dollars)
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
0
1
2
3
4
5
25000 30000 35000 40000 45000
Phthalic Anhydride
Orthoxylene
Acrylic Acid
Adipic Acid
Adiponitrile
Maleic Anhydride
Consumption (Million Tons)
APIC 2015
WORLD PETROCHEMICAL CONSUMPTION vs GDP1995-2007 & 2008-2014
GDP (Billion 2000 $)
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
2008-2014
1995 -2007
0
10
20
30
40
50
25000 30000 35000 40000 45000
VCM
PTA
Paraxylene
MEG
Acetic Acid
Caprolactam
Consumption (Million Tons)
APIC 2015
WORLD PETROCHEMICAL CONSUMPTION vs GDP1995-2007 & 2008-2014
GDP (Billion 2000 $)
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
2008-2014
1995 -2007
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
2008 Forecast
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD PHTHALIC ANHYDRIDE CONSUMPTION
Million Tons
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2008 Forecast
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD ADIPIC ACID CONSUMPTION
Million Tons
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2008 Forecast
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD ACRYLIC ACID CONSUMPTION
Million Tons
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2008 Forecast
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD MALEIC ANHYDRIDE CONSUMPTION
Million Tons
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2008 Forecast
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD VCM CONSUMPTION
Million Tons
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2008 Forecast
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD PARAXYLENE CONSUMPTION
Million Tons
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2008 Forecast
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD MONOETHYLENE GLYCOL CONSUMPTION
Million Tons
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2008 Forecast
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD CAPROLACTAM CONSUMPTION
Million Tons
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2008 Forecast
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD ACETIC ACID CONSUMPTION
Million Tons
APIC 2015
GDP vs CONSUMPTION GROWTH SHARE 1995-2007
Source: World Bank, Probe Economics & Tecnon OrbiChem
GD
P
Male
ic A
nhydrid
e
Adip
icA
cid
Capro
lacta
m
Phth
alic
Anhydrid
e
Acry
lic Acid
Ace
tic Acid
Para
xyle
ne
MEG
VCM
N & S America 35% 13% 19% -6% -1% 20% 6% 4% 3% 15%
Europe 29% 5% 30% 6% -10% 18% 12% 3% 5% 12%
ME & Africa 8% 10% 3% -2% 12% 4% 2% 3% 3% 1%
S & SE Asia 9% 5% 5% 5% 15% 8% 16% 26% 18% 13%
Northeast Asia 7% 5% 8% 32% 0% 14% 17% 23% 3% 5%
China 12% 62% 36% 65% 85% 36% 47% 41% 68% 54%
Asia 29% 71% 49% 102% 99% 58% 80% 90% 88% 72%
World 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
APIC 2015
GDP vs CONSUMPTION GROWTH SHARE 2008-2014
Source: World Bank, Probe Economics & Tecnon OrbiChem
GD
P
Male
ic A
nhydrid
e
Adip
icA
cid
Capro
lacta
m
Phth
alic
Anhydrid
e
Acry
lic Acid
Ace
tic Acid
Para
xyle
ne
MEG
VCM
N & S America 27% 10% -402% -12% -12% 9% 7% 4% 6% 12%
Europe 4% -1% -196% 18% -32% 1% -11% 7% 4% -8%
ME & Africa 11% 7% 15% 0% 13% 9% 9% 1% 8% 9%
S & SE Asia 19% 6% 66% 3% 29% 9% 18% 4% 13% 4%
Northeast Asia 6% -14% 72% -5% -38% 20% 2% -24% 1% 0%
China 32% 93% 545% 96% 141% 52% 74% 108% 68% 83%
Asia 57% 84% 683% 94% 132% 81% 94% 88% 83% 87%
World 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
APIC 2015
CONCLUSIONS
• GDP growth stalled for 3 years as a result of the 2008 financial crisis.
• World GDP growth is still at least 0.5% below that forecast in early 2008.
• Two thirds of global GDP growth since 2008 has been in the world outside the Americas and Europe, compared with one third beforehand.
• Following the 2007-2009 hiatus, many petrochemicals have resumed growth at or above previous GDP multipliers, but some have not.
• For the products considered here, over 80% of consumption growth since 2008 has been in Asia. For some products the proportion is much higher.
• Europe has suffered most, contributing only 4% to global GDP and recording losses in most categories of consumption growth since 2008.
• With China entering a ‘New Normal’ period of lower growth, Europe struggling to recover and crude oil price uncertainty putting a damper on investment, it is difficult to see a return to pre-crisis spending levels occurring any time soon.
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
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