why i am correct far more often than tv...nws... and the weather channel

Why I am CORRECT far more often than TV ...NWS... and The WEATHER

CHANNEL

The WXRISK PHILOSOPHY To strike the perfect “balance” between CW -

Conventional Wisdom - and New Ideas… without coming across as too contrarian.

Use of new lessor known weather models and techniques

• When everyone is thinking the same… someone isn’t thinking… George S Patton

NOTEABLE SUCCESSFUL WxRisk FORECASTS

S American Heat Wave / Drought

FEB - MARCH 2005

Hurricane Season 2004...FLORIDA

Charley Frances Ivan Jeanne

S American Heat Wave / Drought FEB - MARCH 2004

2006 HURRICANE SEASON -- only well known PWSIP to

forecast BELOW NORMAL HURRICANE ACTVITY

NOTEABLE SUCCESSFUL WxRisk FORECASTS

SUPER MILD WINTER OF 2005-2006 ... Consensus called for

Cold snowy winter over Eastern US

2006-07 EL NINO WINTER.... MILD.... SEVERE WINTER PATTERN

"FLIP" JAN 15 - MAR 15

ACTIVE HURRICANE SEAS0N 2010 … NO MAJOR US LANDFALLS: Accu wx ( Accu- Blunder) 7 US Landfalls3 Intense Hurricanes

SEVERE EAST COAST WINTER 2009-10

NOTEABLE VA SUCCESS

1998 SEVERE ICE STORM CENTRAL VA --- UKROPS

HURRICANE ISABEL -- 7 day forecast that was within 100 miles of actual landfall ...1st time WRVA 1140AM

SOUTHEAST VA MAJOR SNOWSTORM 12/25/04 NWS 1-3” for Norfolk VA beach ... 3-6” for Newport News / Williamsburg... WXRISK 6-10” Norfolk VA Beach .... 12” plus Peninsula . 16” Williamsburg 14” Newport News 9” Norfolk

19-20 DEC 2009 MAJOR VA /MD / DE SNOWSTORM.... 5 DAYS OUT called for 10-20" NWS and local TV 3-6" ....6-12 N & W NIGHT BEFORE STORM

DEC 19-20 SNOWSTORM

DEC 19-20 SNOWSTORM

DEC 19-20 SNOWSTORM

DEC 19-20 SNOWSTORM

DEC 19-20 SNOWSTORM

30 JAN 2010.... WXRISK calls for 8-15" FIVE DAYS OUT... FRONT PAGE OF RTD...

FEB 5-6 ...WXRISK 3 days out 3-6" RIC 6-10" N & W NWS calls for ALL RAIN 3 DAYS OUT... BLIZZARD FOR DCA

DEC 25-26 2011.... 6 DAYS OUT... WTVR

DEC 25-26 SNOWSTORM

DEC 18-25 192,000 HITS

DEC 19- JAN 201,.741,671 hits

WHY ARE MAJOR WEATHER EVENTS MISSED IN THE

DAY 3 - 10? SEVERAL REASONS

• OLD SCHOOL * Don’t bother past 3 days

* All the “glory” is on MESO scale weather

• MODERN WEATHER SCHOOLS not teaching ANYTHING about Day 3-14.

• EXPERIENCE HAS LESS VALUE Those forecasters who have been doing this for years are unfamiliar with new models &

methods.

SEQUENCE OF EVENTS• SPECIFIC ORDER • A+ B + C+ D = FORECAST...• IF “B” does not show up...

FORECAST cannot remain the same

WHAT IS A WEATHER FORECAST ?

WHAT ARE WEATHER MODELS?

Computer Representations of what the atmosphere looks like and what it SHOULD look like over the next several days.

– Very Much similar to the Exit polling Debacle in 2000 and

2004 Prez elections… GIGO … Better results

CONNECT THE DOTS! … that is how the computer models do it.

CHAOS Theory-- Dr Lorenz in the 60s from MIT… was

developed by a Meteorologist. Ironic isn’t it?

If you run a model from the same starting point with all of the exact same data you SHOULD get the exact same results...

NOT in WEATHER. WHY??!

– Bird flaps its wings in Tokyo and it rains in NY 10 days later….”

WHAT ARE WEATHER MODELS?

The early weather models in 1960s 70s and 80s had Grid Points 250 miles apart

WHAT IS GRID POINT?

– Specific Place where all the data for 1 location goes into

the Model…

• Weather Balloons Upper Air reports Surface Data Ship

reports Satellite data etc There is a lot of atmosphere in between those “DOTS”/ Grid

points - PACIFIC OCEAN!!! Missing Data causes wild swings in the model with very

different looking weather maps / solutions by day 3 say 5 Day 7 and beyond

WHAT ARE WEATHER MODELS?

SOLUTION

Increased computing Power means GRID points can be much closer … Less Coarse

Looking for the 1 perfect Weather model

RESULT

Better forecasts in the Short Range

No change at all in skill past 3 or 4 days

WHAT ARE WEATHER MODELS?

NATURE OF WEATHER

CHAOS says It is “easy” to get a sunny day in middle

of MAY or JUNE correct.

Much harder to forecast winter rainstorm… harder still a East

coast snowstorm; clouds, precip, jet streams, amounts of Cold

air vs. Mild air

SOME DATA FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN… NOT

ENOUGH.... and the MISSING Data is a killer

• MOST FORECAST ERROR LIES IN THE

DAY 3 to DAY 10 PERIOD

SHORT RANGE MODELS

6 hours to 66 hours ETA...NGM...GFS (American)... MM5

RGEM... and newest one=WRF. High resolution -- the DOTS are close together so

these models handle things like Thunderstorm

clusters coastal fronts ETA-10km/ 20km GFS=

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS

72 hours to DAY 7 or 168 hours American (GFS) European (ECMWF)

Canadian (GGEM) British (UKMET) Navy (Nogaps) .

Used around the world or Hemisphere UKMET 50km GGEM -60KM GFS=40km

to day 7 ECMWF 20KM-- best in the world

STATE OF FORECASTING EARLY IN 21st CENTURY

Huge increase in Number of Weather Models but Most forecasters are NOT familiar with these new Models

“CONSENSUS FORECASTING” works great when its sunny in Mid May. For Major wx events such as landfalling hurricane or snowstorms -- NOT!

6 Medium Range models… some times 6 different Solutions! Which one is right?

ENSEMBLE FORECASTING• Started in 1990s

• All these new weather models can often VERY different solutions.

Which one is right?

• PREMISE-- with all these new super powerful computers

we cab now run the SAME weather model 10, 12 , 15 even 30

times.• Not 1 or 2 solutions but a wide array of possible outcomes for

forecasters to consider

• WARNING SIGN-- when a forecaster makes statement about

the good old days of weather forecasting when there were just 3

or 4 models

ENSEMBLE FORECASTING

Ensembles allows a forecaster to see a SPREAD of possible solutions. This gives a forecaster a degree of certainty and probability that did NOT exists before.

HOW MANY ENSEMBLES ARE THERE?

AMERICAN MODEL…21 members which are run 4 times a Day

CANADIAN .… 20 members 2x/ day EUROPEAN ….. 51 members 2x/ day NAVY …………. 10 members 2x / day SREF…. Short range ensembles to 66

hrs…run 4 times a day.

OCT 1 GULF HURRICANE - GFS

EUROPEAN MODEL SAYS ???

GFS ENSEMBLES

HYPOTHETICAL: SNOWSTORM FOR THE MID - ATLANTIC

What does the overall Pattern say? What do the 5 Medium Range models say? Suppose 2 models show 6 or more inches for RIC

2 Models show NO snow and 1 model 2 “ Snow then Rain

22 member American Model; Suppose 14 have significant snow... 4 have snow/Ice ... 2 show Rain...2 have NO event at all.

GO with the 14 and see what the TRENDS are. Check Canadian, European, Navy etc

PRESIDENTS DAY STORM FEB 15 - 17 2003

ECMWF MODEL from FEB 10

MODEL REVIEW

WHAT WXRISK DOES DIFFERENTLY

•SOE -- Sequence of Events•A form of Risk Assessment of Possible outcomes• A Weather Forecast is a series of events that you expect to happen over a certain interval of time.

• A+ B + C + D = WEATHER FORECAST• If “B” does Not occur then the rest of the Forecast could not possibly be correct

Instead of being over whelmed by massive increase in weather models over the past 10 years… S.O.E. allows a forecaster to develop several scenarios or varying probabilities

• Convey to clients in the forecast in the WHAT COULD GO WRONG section

• More importantly Forecasters are very RARELY SURPRISED by “sudden” model changes and you stay “ahead of the Curve”

WHAT WXRISK DOES DIFFERENTLY

WHAT WXRISK DOES DIFFERENTLY

GFS “American” MODEL classic case of False East coast snowstorm forecasted for DEC 19-20 2004

AMERICAN MODEL ENSEMBLES

HURRICANE FRANCES 2004

CONSENSUS FORECAST– Miss FL turn up the

East Coast– move into SE Canada

and shove early season cold air mass into Upper Plains/ Midwest = FROST

HURRICANE FRANCES

HURRICANE FRANCES

Huge increase in various short Range Medium Range and Long

Range Models demand constant attention

NOT more confusion… tracking 3 or 4 ‘scenarios” as possible

weather outcomes…

sometimes its too early to make a decision… but with S.O.E.

forecasters can figure out WHEN the answer will become clear

SOE allows forecasters to react much faster instead of waiting

for the next model … and FRONT RUN the weather curve….

SUMMARY

GLOBAL WARMING?