winter 2010-2011 climate outlook

Winter 2010-2011 Climate OutlookWinter 2010-2011 Climate Outlook

Melissa L. Griffin

Florida State Assistant Climatologist

Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies

The Florida State University

What Will El Niño/La Niña Bring…What Will El Niño/La Niña Bring…

The El Niño /La Niño cycle is the predominant mode of year to year climate variability in the Southeast.

“The CPC seasonal forecasts lack useful skill in the absence of a strong El Niño/La Niña event”

- Bob Livezey

Basic State of the Pacific OceanBasic State of the Pacific Ocean

Atmospheric CirculationAtmospheric Circulation

Winter Jet Stream PatternsWinter Jet Stream Patterns

El Niño La Niña

Monitoring the Pacific OceanMonitoring the Pacific Ocean

Tracking Tracking the El Niño /La Niña Cycle

• Sea surface temperature anomalies averaged over the Nino 3.4 portion of the equatorial Pacific Ocean

•Smoothed with a three-month running average to reduce noise

Last Winter - Last Winter - El Niño was here!

Tracking Tracking the El Niño /La Niña Cycle

• Sea surface temperature anomalies averaged over the Nino 3.4 portion of the equatorial Pacific Ocean

•Smoothed with a three-month running average to reduce noise

Current Conditions - Current Conditions - La Niña is here!

How Confident in La Nina?How Confident in La Nina?

Drought ImpactsDrought Impacts

Drought ImpactsDrought Impacts

El Niño Effects on PrecipitationEl Niño Effects on Precipitation

La Niña on PrecipitationLa Niña on Precipitation

Local Impacts of Local Impacts of El Niño /La Niña

El Niño

La Niña

Hillsborough County – Plant City

Probabilistic Nature of ForecastsProbabilistic Nature of Forecasts

March - El Niño

March - La Niña

Hillsborough County (Plant City)

Normal March Rainfall:3.39”

La Niña Effects on TemperatureLa Niña Effects on Temperature

Chill HoursChill Hours

El Niño La Niña

Chill AccumulationChill Accumulation

Chill AccumulationChill Accumulation

Climate and Florida CitrusClimate and Florida CitrusAdapted from: John Attaway, “Adapted from: John Attaway, “A History of Florida Citrus Freezes”A History of Florida Citrus Freezes”

Freeze damaged orange trees in 1895

La Nina and Freeze ProbabilitiesLa Nina and Freeze Probabilities

Probability of 25 degrees ˚F or less

NeutralLa Nina

Why is El Nino important?Why is El Nino important?

Where Can I Get More Information?

For More InformationFor More Information

www.agroclimate.org

www.coaps.fsu.edu