worker training’s role in montana’s recovery: a focus on green jobs and restoration
Post on 22-Feb-2016
25 Views
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
Worker Training’s Role in Montana’s Recovery:
A Focus on Green Jobs and Restoration May 22, 2012
Barbara Wagner and Aaron McNay
Employment and Total Wage Growth, Percent Increase over Prior Year
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Montana Department of Labor and Industry
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 32007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%Employment Growth
Wage Growth
U.S. and MT Unemployment Rates
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey and Local Area Unemployment Statistics.
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0
1
U.S.
Montana
10%
7%
Total and Payroll Employment, 2020 ProjectionsSlower Job Growth in the Future
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2000-2010, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, 2000-2010, Research and Analysis Bureau Employment Projections, 2010-2020
1 3 5 7350
370
390
410
430
450
470
490
510
Empl
oym
ent i
n Th
ousa
nds
Total Payroll
Components of GDP (2010)(Aggregate Demand)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
INVEST-MENT
PERSONAL CONSUMP-
TION70%
EXPORT BAL-ANCE
GOVERNMENT20%
Take Away Points
• Montana’s economy is in recovery.
• Expect slower job growth in the future due to reduced aggregate demand.
How do we accelerate job growth?
THE BIG QUESTION
Answer: Worker Training
Types of Unemployment
1. Frictional• Normal, good, temporary unemployment that results from workers
finding better jobs and turnover.
2. Cyclical• Unemployment due to a recession.
3. Structural• Skills mismatch between jobs and workers.
U.S. Unemployment Rate by Education Level
Source: Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0Less than HS DegreeHS, no collegeLess than a Bachelor'sCollege Grads
Payroll Employment Change2007 to 2010
Projected Growth Compared to Recession Losses
OccupationEstimated Recession
Losses
Projected Statewide Annual
Job Growth, 2012 to 2020
Year that All Workers are Rehired
Carpenters -2,260 140 Past 2020
Retail Salespersons -1,174 116 2019
Construction Laborers -1,171 94 Past 2020
Bookkeeping and Auditing Clerks -791 149 2016
Cashiers -776 121 2015
Secretaries -702 15 Past 2020
Janitors and Cleaners -563 29 Past 2020
Ten Growing Occupations with Unmet Demand for Workers
Occupation
Projected Annual Growth
Minimum Training Required
Home Health Aides 96 Short OJT
Registered Nurses 72 Associate
Personal and Home Care Aides 54 Short OJT
Elementary School Teachers 52 Bachelor's
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 46Vocational
training
Medical Secretaries 31 Moderate OJTNetwork Systems and Data Communications Analysts 22 Bachelor's
Medical Assistants 22 Moderate OJT
Child Care Workers 22 Short OJT
Directing Displaced Workers into Appropriate Occupations
• Workforce training and education are needed to retrain into growing occupations that don’t have excess supply.
Excess Workers Occupations
Retail Salespeople
Carpenters or Construction Laborers
Wait Staff
Occupations that Need Workers
Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing
Maintenance and Repair Workers
Lawyers?
Projected Job Growth by Education and Training Category
% of Montana
Jobs
2007 to 2010 Change
Annual Job Growth
2010-2012
Annual Job Growth
2012-2020
Year Jobs Regained
Short to Moderate
OJT55% (15,959) 2,514 2,537 2016
Long OJT or Work
Experience16% (7,415) 445 802 2020
Associate or Vocational
Degree11% 286 283 477 No losses
Bachelor’s Degree or
Higher19% (78) 608 841 2011
OJT means on-the-job training Source: Montana Employment Projections, 2010, Research and Analysis Bureau, Montana Dept
of Labor and Industry
Need Skills with the DegreeSkill Retained Workers Poor Performance
Service Orientation/ Customer Service * 35.6%
Critical Thinking 6.3% 50.2%
Operating Equipment 0.9% 14.9%
Communication 5.1% 34.5%
Following Instructions 5.1% 61.1%
Time Management 5.9% 43.5%
Safety * 11.4%
Job-Specific Technical Skills * 24.9%
Work Ethics 4.9% 46.5%
Physical Skills * 9.8%
Take Away Points
• Structural unemployment can be addressed at the state level with education and training.
• In general, more workers are needed in health care and in jobs requiring high levels of education.
• Carpenters, retail workers, and workers in other occupations will need to be retrained to fill new jobs.
• Geographical economic disparities are also a factor.
• Skills are also important.
Green Jobs and Restoration Skills
Green jobs are not a new phenomenon, but part of the ever-developing process to make production
– more efficient, – reduce costs, and – eliminate unnecessary waste
in order to make business more profitable.
• Restoration fixes the mistakes of the past, and is a subset of green
• Green jobs also include jobs that prevent future environmental damage, including those in industries that do not produce green products.
Green Jobs are Not Just a Fad
1. Increased demand for energy and other natural resources will cause price increases.
2. Consumers value ecological services.– Will demand green products– Will likely continue to use policy and regulation to keep immediate
environment clean
3. Businesses try to increase profits.– Reducing costs and unnecessary waste– Creating niche products and marketing
Need for Green Job Training
• 4.5% of all Montana jobs are green.
• Over 85% of businesses participate in some type of “green activity.”
• Growth rate is slightly faster than all jobs– 260 jobs per year
through 2020
Other Services3%
Other12%
Pro-fes-
sional and
Tech-nical Ser-vices8%
Admin-istra-tive and
Waste Ser-vices6%
Public Admin-
istra-tion11%
Trade and Transportation15%
Ag and Forestr
y3%
Manufacturing17%
Mining and
Utilities3%
Construction22%
Percent of Time in Green Work
0-49% 50-99% 100% Did not Report0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
Percent of Time Spent in Green Work
Certification and Licensure
• LEED• Water• OSHA• Pesticide Application• HVAC• Electrical• Welding• Lead Removal
• EPA/ State Environmental Agency• Equipment Operation• Architect• Environmental
Professional• Professional Engineer• Freon
14% green jobs require some type of certification or license
Restoration Case Studies:Silver Bow Creek Superfund Cleanup
• 31.5 total jobs per million of capital investment
• Some additional training was needed, but not long-term.
• Above average wages for the occupation.
Restoration Case Studies:Silver Bow Creek Superfund Cleanup
• 90% of workers lived in Silver Bow County
• Inconsistent and seasonal work pattern• Only 21% had work earnings in every quarter.• 73% of workers had earnings before and after cleanup.
• Many worked multiple jobs.• Only 13% received all of their earnings from restoration.• Over 50% of earnings came from restoration work.
Forest Restoration In Montana
• 2010 study examined the economic impacts of forest restoration spending in Montana’s economy.
• Flathead County Stewardship/Energy Conservation Landscaping Project used as a case study.
• An Input-Output model used to estimate the economic impact.
Case Studies: Forest Restoration
Per $1 Million in Forest Restoration
– 9.2 FTE Directly Involved in Forest Restoration
– 19.5 FTE Positions Total
– Nearly $600,000 Increase in Total Labor Income
– $2.3 Million Increase in Total Economic Activity
Forest Restoration In Montana
• The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act spent approximately $7.5 million for forest restoration in Montana.
• Based on the estimates developed from the Flathead case study, the $7.5 million was estimated to have generated:– 147 Full-Time Equivalent Positions – $17.6 Million in Total Economic Activity
Where to Find More Info
www.ourfactsyourfuture.org
Click on publications for Projections information.
Click on Green Jobs Survey Results for Green Jobs.
Click on Presentations for a copy of this presentation.
Where to Find Reports
• Projections: http://www.ourfactsyourfuture.org/admin/uploadedPublications/4543_projections.pdf
• Green Jobs, New Hire Skill Survey, and Forest Restoration: http://www.ourfactsyourfuture.org/?PAGEID=4&SUBID=297
• Mine Restoration: http://www.ourfactsyourfuture.org/admin/uploadedPublications/3669_Restoration.pdf
QUESTIONS?PRESENTATION, MONTHLY UPDATES, DATA, AND OTHER ECONOMIC
RESEARCH AThttp://www.ourfactsyourfuture.org
Barbara Wagnerbwagner@mt.gov
406-444-5474
Aaron McNayamcnay@mt.gov
406-444-3245
top related