working group on nowcasting research a brief introduction paul joe

Working Group on Nowcasting Research

A Brief Introduction

Paul Joe

•Advise

•Promote Nowcsting

•Advance the Science

•Publish and Convene

•Capacity Build and Technology Transfer

Mandate of WGNR

Nowcasting is precise in space, time and weather element.

Nowcasting is forecasting with local detail, by any method, over a period from the present to a few hours ahead; this includes a detailed description of the present weather.

In the foreseeable future it is most likely that it will be possible to make deterministic and probabilistic nowcasts for end-users of the 0-6h time period with sufficient time and space specificity to effectively mitigate losses or enhance benefits.

Conway, 1988

Nowcasts leads to a “call to action”

disaster (Flood/Landslide)

1 hour before

3-6 hours before

evacuation

Nowcast (Anal) >warning

VSRF (Anal+NWP) >caution

Met. Information

1-2 days before

SRF(NWP) >Outlook

Local Government

Citizen

Stand byReady to take action

preparation

Action for recovery

Cancel warning

Back to normal (recovery)

Action for disaster prevention

Precip. Intensity

Keep in mind

Is the skill of our forecast fulfilling their needs?

Courtesy, Shingo Yamada JMA

CSI of 0.2 is not good enough!

Zawadzki

Strategic Plan

• Promotion and Facilitation of Nowcasting Science– Improving Predictive skill and characterizing uncertainty

– Promoting physically based nowcast prediction through hi res modelling and data assimilation

• Nowcasting Systems and Process Development• Information Exchange and Capacity Building• Enhancing Transfer of Nowcasting Research to

Operations

Implementation

• Promote nowcasting science (RDP), transfer of technology and science through Forecast Demonstration Projects (FDP) and assist in the development of nowcast test beds.

• Organization of international nowcasting conferences and specialist symposia, training workshops and collaboration with WMO and CBS

• Inter comparison and systematic testing of these algorithms on common and representative databases (including consideration of extreme and high impact events) would provide valuable assessment and help define optimal paths for development.

• Promote collaboration amongst National Meteorological Services (NMS’s) to develop nowcasting capabilities

How?

• Symposia

• FDP, RDP, DC-FDP, Test Beds

• Workshops

• Training Workshops

• Other Projects (e.g. RQQI,…)

• Collaborations (promote and develop)

• Advice

RDP

FDP’s

DC-FDP

Test Bed

• Longer term demonstration project

• JONAS activity!

• Lead to operational implementation – forecast system definition!

• Better statistics for verification

• Better end-user interaction for social impacts

WWRP/NWG History

WWRP Conceived

Algorithms / Nowcast Teams Meet at Austin

Radar Conference

Olympic Focus

S2K Kick Off Meeting Reading

Sydney 2000

Athens “no go”

WG’s formed

-Nowcasting

-Verification

-Social Impacts

-Tropical…

B08 Kick Off (3)

MAP

B08 SNOW-V10

WSN05 WSN09

V10 KO

SNOWV10 KO

Current operational nowcasting programs only focus on summer convection!

• U.S. ~1952

• Canada ~1980

• Australia ~1990

• China ~2003

• Romania ~2003

• Germany 2005

• Japan 2008

Other Related WMO/WWRP Programs

• Central Basic Systems/Public Weather Service (e.g., WENS, SWFDP, MWA)

• Commission on Instruments Methods and Observations (e.g., RQQI)

• Verification Working Group

• Mesoscale Working Group

• Social Economic Working Group

Where Are We Going?Purpose of the meeting!

• More FDP’s, RDP’s, Training Workshops• Symposia and advancing nowcasting

workshops?• DC-FDP?• non-radar DP?• Advancing • Training Centre• Forecast Systems/Test Beds• Instruments for nowcasting