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Workshop on MPA Resilience to Climate Change:

Overview of Climate Change and its Expected Impacts on Marine and Coastal Biodiversity in the Caribbean

Impacts and Costs of Sea Level Rise in the Caribbean and Role of Ecosystem-Based AdaptationSt Martin, FWI, 28-29 November 2013

Dr Owen Day

Chief Technical Officer and

Head of Biodiversity

The CARIBSAVE Partnership

Overview of presentation

• Climate Change Impacts

• IPCC WG1 latest report

• Coastal vulnerability of the Caribbean – Costs of SLR

• Adaptation options to reduce risk and build resilience

• Coastal setbacks

• Engineering options coastal protection

• Ecosystem-Based Adaptation (EbA)

• Replanting mangrove forests

• Marine Protected Areas

• Opportunities to promote EbA

Changing Climate - Changing Coasts

• Rising sea levels

• Intense storms and rainfall events, and coastal siltation

• Beach Erosion

• Higher water temperatures

• Coral Bleaching

• Fish migration

• Ocean acidification

Click icon to add picture

Click icon to add picture

Click icon to add picture

The Coral Reef Crisis

The Coral Reef Crisis

The Coral Reef Crisis

Unusual amount of Sargassum seaweed washed up on a Caribbean beach August 2011. Source: Richard Roach

Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes.

This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.

Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence).

Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC (AR5) Working Group 1

Source: IPCC AR5 – WGI

Table 1. Extreme weather and climate events: Global-scale assessment of recent observed changes, human contribution to the changes, and projected further changes for the early (2016–2035) and late (2081–2100) 21st century. (IPCC WG1 AR5)

Bold indicates where the AR5 (black) provides a revised* global-scale assessment from the SREX (blue) or AR4 (red). Projections for early 21st century were not provided in previous assessment reports. Projections in the AR5 are relative to the reference period of 1986–2005, and use the new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (see Box SPM.1) unless otherwise specified. See the Glossary for definitions of extreme weather and climate events.

Figure 1. Projections of global mean sea level rise over the 21st century relative to 1986–2005. From the combination of the CMIP5 ensemble with process-based models, for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The assessed likely range is shown as a shaded band. The assessed likely ranges for the mean over the period 2081–2100 for all RCP scenarios are given as coloured vertical bars, with the corresponding median value given as a horizontal line

Source: IPCC AR5 – WGI

• Recent studies forecast 1-2m SLR by 2100, greatly surpassing the IPCC 2007 and 2013 Reports

• Moderate to high GHG emission scenarios pose a major threat to the stability of the world’s ice sheets

Global Sea Level Rise ProjectionsIs the IPCC too Conservative?

• SLR in the northern Caribbean may exceed global average by up to 25% because of gravitational and geophysical factors

• Impact of tropical storms and hurricanes on coastlines, even at present levels, will be intensified as sea level rises

• SLR will continue for centuries after 2100, even if global temperatures are stabilized at 2.0 °C or 2.5°C

Caribbean SLR Projections

Figure 4 Partial pressure of dissolved CO2 at the ocean surface (blue curves) and in situ pH (green curves), a measure of the acidity of ocean water. Measurements are from three stations from the Atlantic (29°10’N, 15°30’W – dark blue/dark green; 31°40’N, 64°10’W – blue/green) and the Pacific Oceans (22°45’N, 158°00’W − light blue/light green).

Source: IPCC AR5 – WGI

The aim of the CCCRA was to analyse the vulnerability of the tourism sector and related sectors to climate change, and suggest adaptation strategies.

The CCCRA was funded by UKaid from the United Kingdom Department for International Development (DFID) and the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID).

The project was implemented with the CCCCC and UWI in 15 Caricom countries: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Jamaica, Nevis, St. Lucia, St Kitts, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, and the Turks and Caicos, over a period of 3 years.

The main outputs from CCCRA are Climate Change Risk Country Profiles

www.caribsave.org

CARIBSAVE CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ATLAS (CCCRA)

“Partnerships for Resilience” Film Series

Impact of 1m SLR and 1 in 100 Year Storm Surge

Impact of Beach Erosion and SLR

Total Annual and Capital Costs of SLR in CARICOM Countries

2050s 2080s

Annual

Costs

US$ billion

Capital

Costs

US$ billion

Annual

Costs

US$ billion

Capital

Costs

US$ billion

Mid-Range SLR

Scenario

3.9 26 13.5 68.2

High SLR

Scenario

6.1 60.7 19.4 187

(in 2010 USD)

Adaptation Options To Reduce Risk And Build Resilience

Planning and Adapting to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Risks

Accommodation or Coping Strategies• Allow some flooding• Change coastal uses• Raised buildings (floating buildings)

Retreat• Enforce coastal setbacks• Relocate people to higher areas

Protection• Engineering options• Ecosystem-based options

• In a coastal setback, all or certain types of development are prohibited and human use of the area restricted to approved activities.

COASTAL SETBACKS

Sometimes historic – Queen’s Chain of ~20m

Mediterranean Protocol uses 100m

Calculated beach setbacks based on: • Chronic erosion – normal coastal processes• Acute erosion – storm events• Estimated sea level rise• Safety factors

Setback distance = (A + B + C) X D

where:

• A is the setback distance needed to account for acute erosion from a major storm event;

• B is the setback distance needed to account for historic or chronic erosion;

• C is the distance needed to account for sea level rise; and

• D is a safety factor which increases from 1 to 2 as uncertainty increases or to account for ecological, planning or social considerations.

CALCULATING COASTAL SETBACKS

Country Setback DistanceAnguilla 15-91mAntigua & Barbuda 18-91mArgentina  Bahamas 5-15mBarbados 30m/ 10m cliff topBelize 20mBrazil 50-200mChile 80mColombia 50mCosta Rica 50m + 150mCuba 40-80mDominican Republic 60mEcuador 8m + mangrovesEl Salvador  Grenada  Guatemala  Guyana  Haiti  Honduras  Jamaica  Mexico 20mNevis 18-152mNicaragua 50mPanama 20mPeru  St Kitts  St. Lucia  Suriname  Trinidad &Tobago  Uruguay 250mVenezuela 50m

Country Setback DistanceEU - Mediterranean 100m minimumGermany 100-200mNorway 100mPoland 200mTurkey 50mSpain 100mSweden 100mDenmark 300mAustralia  New South Wales 1kmVictoria 200mSouth Australia 100mNew Zealand 20mCanada  New Brunswick 30mBritish Columbia 15mHalifax Nova Scotia 2.5m elevation

International Review of Coastal Setbacks

Coastal Protection - Engineering Options

Coastal Protection - Engineering Options

Engineering Options – Low cost

Barbados Boardwalk

CZMU, Barbados

Barbados Boardwalk

CZMU, Barbados

Barbados Boardwalk

Barbados Boardwalk - 1 in 100 Year Storm Surge

CZMU, Barbados

Barbados Boardwalk

Barbados Boardwalk

Barbados Boardwalk

Engineering Options - Good examples

• Sound science, detailed planning and intensive modeling

• Public consultations

• Quality engineering

• Maintenance and monitoring

• Integrated with management of coastal ecosystems – coral reef

Guyana Coastal Defences

Guyana Coastal Defences

Guyana Coastal Defences

Guyana Coastal Defences

Guyana Coastal Defences

One of Many Flood Events in Georgetown, Guyana

Guyana Coastal Defences

Value of Wetlands in Coastal Protection

Value of Wetlands in Coastal Protection

Loss of 1ha of wetland = US$33,000 increase in storm damage from specific storms

Value of Wetlands in Coastal Protection

Rao N.S., Carruthers T.J.B., Anderson P., Sivo L., Saxby T., Durbin, T., Jungblut V., Hills T., Chape S. 2012. A comparative analysis of ecosystem–based adaptation and engineering options for Lami Town, Fiji. A synthesis report by the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme.

Benefit-to-cost ratio for each scenario of adaptation options, and assumed damage avoidance.

Lami Study, Fiji

Ecosystem- Based Adaptation

“ Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) harnesses the adaptive forces of nature and provides one of the most widely applicable, economically viable and effective tools to combat the impacts of climate change.

The low-cost, flexible approaches of EbA can also provide multiple other benefits, such as poverty alleviation, sustainable development, carbon storage and biodiversity protection.”

Dr Pam Berry, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford

Science for Environment Policy

THEMATIC ISSUE: Ecosystem-based Adaptation

March 2013 Issue 37

Protecting and enhancing the livelihoods, environments and economies of the Caribbean BasinValue of Coral Reefs

Tourism

Coastal protection

Fisheries

Ecosystem- Based Adaptation

Source: Lauretta Burke, Reefs at Risk Revisited, WRI, 2010

Protecting and enhancing the livelihoods, environments and economies of the Caribbean Basin

What can we do? Manage for Resilience

1. Protect and restore coastal wetlands, mangroves and coral reefs

2. Manage watersheds to reduce sedimentation and coastal pollution

3. Manage reef fisheries and protect reef herbivores, e.g. parrotfish

4. Establish networks of Marine Protected Areas

Importance of Parrotfish in Ecosystem-Based Adaptation

Thresholds and the Resilience of Caribbean Coral ReefsPeter Mumby et al., Nature 450:1, 2007

Caribbean Fish Sanctuaries Partnership Initiative

The aim is to improve the management of 15 fish sanctuaries in order to promote sustainable livelihoods and increase the resilience of coastal resources to climate change. It is part of The CARICOM Regional Framework for Achieving Development Resilient to Climate Change implemented by the CCCCC

It is 4-year project (2012-2016) funded by UKAID (£2.1 million) through CCCCC, and implemented by CARIBSAVE in Jamaica, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, St Lucia, Dominica.

The Coral Reef Crisis

• Between 1970 and 1990 live coral cover on Jamaica’s reefs dropped from 80% to below 10%

• The decline was primarily due to a dramatic reduction in reef fish and sea urchins, made worse by increasing coastal pollution

C-FISH Component 1Capacity Building For MPA Management

• Grants for enforcement, wardens, managers, equipment, patrol boats, engines, …

• Strengthening Governance

• Training in MPA management

• Community-based Monitoring

C-FISH Component 2 Education and Awareness

Public awareness campaign on TV, radio, internet, press and signage.

• Offshore fishing - FADs

• Community-based tourism

• Craft Programme

C-FISH Component 3 MSMEs and Alternative Livelihoods

C-FISH Component- 3 Supporting Local Livelihoods with Private Sector Partnerships

Community Livelihoods

Craft Programme

Community-based tourism

Offshore fishing

ACCESS TO MARKETS

C-FISH Component 3 MSMEs and Sustainable Financing for MPAs

C-FISH Component 4The AQUACAM Research Programme

• Develop a cost effective underwater video system for viewing and monitoring fish populations

• Aquacam System will use Wi-Fi transmitter to send stereo video stream to base station where it can be uploaded to internet

Conclusion: It’s About Making It Happen!!!

Research Policy Implementation

Financing Mechanisms - Ecosystem targets (MPAs, forests, fisheries), Carbon

targets (REDD+), Poverty/Development targets, Bio-Rights, PES, other

Enforcement - Political will, supporting laws and judiciary, resources for

management and monitoring capacity, culture of law enforcement

Community-based Management - Policies for co-management, linkages to livelihoods, private sector partnerships, incentives, governance, awareness- Social cohesion, local champions

Community Community

Environment

Awareness of the Benefits of Environmental Management

Training and Opportunities for Green Growth

Financing with Environmental Targets

Policies that Promote Community Ownership of Resources

Private Sector Partnerships and Access to Markets

Environment

Adaptation –a Human Story

Thank You