would banning firearms reduce murder or suicide?€¦ · •firearms ownership rates provided by...

Would banning firearms reduce murder or suicide?

Gary Mauser

CUFOA - 2017

Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy

Spring 2007Vol 30 (2)DON B. KATES

GARY A. MAUSER

•Don B. Kates• American Criminologist• Professor of law (ret.)• Pacific Research Institute,• San Francisco, CA, USA

•Gary A. Mauser• Canadian criminologist• Professor emeritus• Simon Fraser University• Burnaby, BC, Canada

Don Kates (1941-2016) RIPwith Che

Snopes.com, in a biased review, claims our findings are FALSE in “Harvard Flaw Review”

Caveat• Our study is based on the best available data• Murder and suicide rates are government sources• Firearms ownership rates provided by United Nations

or the Graduate Institute of International Studies’, Swiss Small Arms Survey

• Nevertheless, errors abide in available data• E.g., it is exceptionally difficult to estimate firearms

ownership, definitions of murder and suicide can vary from country to country, reporting quality varies

Statistics can be frightening

• “Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say.”

• ~William W. Watt

Summary

• The availability of firearms does not correspond with increased murder and suicide rates

• In countries which published statistics were available:

• Civilian firearms ownership was not linked with higher homicide and suicide rates

• Countries with more civilian firearms owners tend to have lower murder and suicide rates

Claim• The United States has the industrialized world’s

highest murder rate because of high availability of guns

Facts• Russia has a much higher murder rate• In general, higher gun ownership rates are associated

with lower homicide rates • (both internationally and intra-nationally)

Comparing homicide rates:United States and Russia(per 100,000 people)

Year USA Russia (USSR)

1960s 5.5 14

1990s 8.1 24

2002 5.6 20.5

2009 5.0 15

Claim

• Europe has low murder rates because of stringent gun control

Facts

• Europe had low murder rates before gun controls introduced in twentieth century

• Research does not support effectiveness of stringent gun controls

Notes, Tables 1 – 2

• Tables 1 - 2 cover all the Continental European nations for which both data sets are available. The homicide data given is for 2003 or the closest year thereto to match the year of the gun ownership data. That publication is the Graduate Institute of International Studies’, SMALL ARMS SURVEY 2003 (Oxford U. Press 2003).

• The homicide rate data come from JURISTAT: Homicide in Canada (Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics) for the years 2001-04.

Table 1 - Gun ownership and murder rates

Nation Murder rate (per 100,000)

Gun ownership (guns per 100,000)

Murder rate year

Russia 20.54 4,000 2002

Lithuania 11.70 0 1998

Hungary 2.22 2,000 2003

Finland 1.98 39,000 2004

Sweden 1.87 24,000 2001

Poland 1.79 1,500 2003

France 1.65 30,000 2003

Table 1 (cont’d) Gun ownership and murder ratesNation Murder rate

(per 100,000)Gun ownership (guns per100,000)

Murder rate year

Denmark 1.21 18,000 2003

Holland 1.20 300 2002

Greece 1.12 11,000 2003

Switzerland 0.99 16,000 2003

Germany 0.99 10,000 2003

Luxembourg 0.90 0 2002

Norway 0.81 36,000 2001

Austria 0.80 17,000 2002

Europe: Gun Ownership and Murder Rates (Table 1)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

0

5

10

15

20

25

Gun

s per

100,0

00

Mur

der r

ate p

er 10

0,000

Murderrate Gunsper100,000

Statistics? We’ve got statistics!

• “Statistics can be made to prove anything - even the truth.” • ~Author Unknown

Banning handguns

• Restricting access to handguns does not correlate with lower murder rates

• Countries that ban handguns typically have higher murder rates than neighboring countries

Table 2 Comparing murder rates of neighboring European nations

Nation Handgun policy

Murder rate(per 100,000)

Year

Belarus Banned 10.4 Late 1990s

Poland Allowed 1.98 2003

Russia Banned 20.54 2002

Table 2 cont’d Comparing murder rates of neighboring European nationsNation Handgun

policyMurder rate(per 100,000)

Year

Russia Banned 20.54 2002

Finland Allowed 1.98 2004

Norway Allowed 0.81 2001

Explanatory Note to Table 3• It bears emphasis that the following data

come from a special U.N. report whose data are not fully comparable to those in Tables 1 and 2 because they cover different years and derive from substantially differing sources.

Do ordinary people murder?

• Table 3 shows Eastern European countries with descending order of murder rate

•No apparent correlation between murder and civilian firearms ownership

Table 3 - Eastern EuropeGun ownership and murder rates

Nation Murder rate (year) Rate of gun ownership

Russia 20.54 [2002] 4,000

Moldova 8.13 [2000] 1,000

Slovakia 2.65 [2000] 3,000

Romania 2.50 [2000] 300

Macedonia 2.31 [2000] 16,000

Hungary 2.22 [2003] 2,000

Table 3 (cont’d) - Eastern EuropeGun ownership and murder rates

Nation Murder rate (year) Rate of gun ownership

Finland 1.98 [2004] 39,000Poland 1.79 [2003] 1,500Slovenia 1.81 [2000] 5,000Cz. Republic 1.69 [2000] 5,000Greece 1.69 [2000] 11,000

Eastern Europe Gun Ownership and Murder rates

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

0

5

10

15

20

25

Russia Moldova Slovakia Romania Macedonia Hungary Finland Slovenia Poland CzechRepublic

Greece

Gun

ow

ners

hp r

ate

Mur

der r

ate

Soure: Kates-Mauser Table 3

Murderrate

Gunownershiprate

ZZZZZZZ

• “Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are more pliable.”• ~Author Unknown

Explanatory Notes for Next Chart

• Civilian firearms ownership (shown by red line) increase from left to right. Source: UN Office on Drugs and Crime, Global Study on Homicide, 2011

• Homicide rates (shown by vertical blue bars) from the Graduate Institute of International Studies’, SMALL ARMS SURVEY 2007

• In general, nations with higher gun ownership rates (found at right) are associated with lower homicide rates

Homicide and firearms in Europe

0.0#

2.0#

4.0#

6.0#

8.0#

10.0#

12.0#

0.0#

5.0#

10.0#

15.0#

20.0#

25.0#

30.0#

35.0#

40.0#

45.0#

50.0#

Romania#

Lithu

ania#

Polan

d#Ne

therlan

ds#

Hungary#

Bulga

ria#

UK#an

d#Northern#Irelan

d#Uk

raine

#Re

public#o

f#Mold

ova#

Belar

us#

Slovakia

#Po

rtugal#

Irelan

d#Albania

#Ru

ssian

#Fede

raMo

n#Estonia

#Spain

#Ita

ly#Malt

a#De

nmark#

Slovenia

#Luxembo

urg#

Czech#R

epub

lic#

Belgium

#Bo

snia#and#H

erzegovin

a#Latvia#

CroaMa

#Greece#

Mon

tene

gro#

Maced

onia#

Icelan

d#Ge

rmany#

Austr

ia#France#

Norw

ay#

Swed

en#

Serbia#

Finlan

d#Sw

itzerlan

d#

Numbe

r'of'Fire

arms'p

er'10

0'peo

ple'

Homicide

'rate'pe

r'100

,000'p

opula7

on'

Sources:'Homicide'rates,'UNODC;'Civilian'firearms'es7mates,'Swiss'Small'Arms'Survey''

Civilian'Firearms'and'Homicide'Rates''Europe,'2008'

Homicide#rate#

Civilian#firearms#

Notes, Table 41. Based in general on U.N. DEMOGRAPHIC YEARBOOK (1998) as reported in David C. Stolinsky, "America: The Most Violent Nation?" MEDICAL SENTINEL v. 5 (# 6 2000) 199-201. It should be understood that, though the 1998 YEARBOOK gives figures for as late as 1996, the figures are not necessarily for that year. The YEARBOOK contains the latest figure each nation has provided the U.N. which may be 1996, 1995, or 1994.

2. The Swiss homicide figure Stolinsky, supra, reports is an error because it combines attempts with actual murders. We have computed the Swiss murder rate by averaging the 1994 and 1995 Swiss National Police figures for actual murders in those years given in R.A.I. Munday & J.A. Stevenson, GUNS AND VIOLENCE: THE DEBATE BEFORE LORD CULLEN (Essex, Eng., Piedmont: 1996) at p. 268.

Annual Death Rate From Mass Public Shootings(January 2009 - December 2015)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Dea

th R

ate

per M

illio

n Pe

ople

Source: John Lott, Crime Prevention Research Center

United States

Guns and Homicide in North America

Civilian Guns per 100,000 population

Homicide rate

Canada 36,349 1.78

United States 89,116 5.62

Mexico 9,709 13.94

Homicide Rates, Canada and USA(Standardized at 1991)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sorces:StatisticsCanada,HomicideSurvey,FBIUCRCrimeintheUnitedStates

Canada USA

More firearms, far fewer firearms fatalities

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1930 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: WISQARS CDC

United States: Unintentional firearms fatalities

Firearms Safety training makes a difference

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Statistics Canada: Causes of Death (Catalogue 84-208)

Canadian Unintentional Firearm Fatalities

More guns, more death?

• Does access to firearms by civilians increase murder rates and suicide rates?

• No apparent correlation between total intentional death rate and civilian firearms ownership

Banning guns does not reduce murder rates

Irish murder incidents and 1972 handgun ban

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Num

ber

of m

urde

r in

cide

nts

Source: Garda Stochana Annual Reports

Fig. 11. Murder Trend in the Republic of Ireland

De facto handgun ban

Jamaican murder rates and 1976 firearm ban

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Rat

e pe

r 10

0,00

0 po

pula

tion

Source: Professor A. Francis, University of the West Indies (2001)

Fig. 7. Murder Trend in Jamaica

Firearms Banned

Conclusions

• Available data do not support link between civilian firearms ownership and murder or suicide rates

• Available data do not support effectiveness of restrictive firearms laws in reducing murder or suicide rates

• Thank you!

Statistics can be frightening

Homicide and 1996 Handgun Ban in England and Wales

English Police numbers balloon after 2001

Is the United States uniquely violent?

• Table 4 shows countries in descending order of combined murder and suicide rates

• The United States does not have the highest intentional death rate. It falls midway in this collection

Table 4 – Intentional Deaths:United States vs. Continental Europe

Nation Suicide Murder Combined ratesRussia 41.2 30.6 71.8Estonia 40.1 22.2 62.3Latvia 40.7 18.2 58.9Lithuania 45.6 11.7 57.3Belarus 27.9 10.4 38.3Hungary 32.9 3.5 36.4Ukraine 22.5 11.3 33.8Slovenia 28.4 2.4 30.4Finland 27.2 2.9 30.1

Table 4 (cont’d) – Intentional Deaths:United States vs. Continental Europe

Nation Suicide Murder Combined ratesDenmark 22.3 4.9 27.2Croatia 22.8 3.3 26.1Austria 22.2 1.0 23.2Bulgaria 17.3 5.1 22.4France 20.8 1.1 21.9Switzerland 21.4 1.1 24.1Belgium 18.7 1.7 20.4United States 11.6 7.8 19.4Poland 14.2 2.8 17.0

Table 4 (cont’d) – Intentional Deaths:United States vs. Continental Europe

Nation Suicide Murder Combined rates

Germany 15.8 1.1 16.9

Romania 12.3 4.1 16.4

Sweden 15.3 1.0 16.3

Norway 12.3 0.8 13.1

Holland 9.8 1.2 11.0

Italy 8.2 1.7 9.9

Portugal 8.2 1.7 9.9

Spain 8.1 0.9 9.0

Greece 3.3 1.3 4.6