wp220 – marine ecosystems and fisheries tony beeching cefas
Post on 17-Jan-2016
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Objectives
• Use WP110 outputs to examine future impact on fish biology, distribution and availability to fleets
• Examine impact on ecosystem and fishery productivity
• Examine economic implications
Task 1 - Review
• Define current situation
• Identify appropriate models (biology, ecosystem)
• Identify best data
Task 2 – Condition models
• Ensure models are as realistic as possible
• Use historical data identified in task 1
• Note issues projecting models beyond range of biology/ecology seen in the past
Task 3 – Fish stock distribution
• Impact of climate on distribution– Implications for fishers, economics, etc.
• Propose use of climate envelopes (Cheung et al.)• Produce future distributions (and potentially catch)
Task 4 – Impacts on fish biology
• Impact of climate on growth/reproduction/mortality• Use simulation approaches (e.g. Kell et al.)• Examine future sustainability under climate
change (species specific)
Task 5 – Impacts on ecosystem
• Use Ecopath to force existing ecosystem models under climate change– Primary productivity?– Fishing scenarios?
• Give overview of potential ecosystem impacts
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Birds
Nile perch
Juv. Lates
Catfishes
Lungfish
Snoutfishes
Haplochromines
Dagaa
Nile tilapia
Other fishes
Task 6 - Economics
• Examine potential impacts– Fish quantities– Fish availability
• Note issues with future pricing etc.
• Implications of alternative scenarios
Deliverables
• Review
• Conditioned models
• Scientific papers:– Impacts on fish distribution– Impacts on biology of specific species– Impacts on ecosystem
Links with other WP
• How we link is a critical consideration• Although no topic areas should be
avoided, we may need to identify/triage primary links.
• We have been concerned with inputs to our WPs but equally we need to consider our outputs (WP3).
• Identify key contact persons (for Cefas – Graham.Pilling)
Issues to consider
• At what date shall we set the baseline (retrospective ~ to show long term patterns and trends?) (status quo)
• What is the time series for future projections e.g. 2050 or 2100?
• ….or a dec C rise for projection scenarios?• What is the spatial scale of outputs from WP1 (e.g. 0.5
deg square)• Format of data (file type, size) – implications if need for
conversion (processing time and resources) (potential error)
• How will we share data/informationSpecific outputs
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