your money in indian country webinar series

1

Monday, August 9th, 2021

Summer Market Update

Your Money in Indian Country Webinar Series

Your Hosts

Shawn Spruce

2

Autumn Romero

The U.S. was in a recession until 2021.

❑ Yes

❑ No

❑ Maybe

3

Which of the following companies has lost money on its COVID-19 vaccine?

❑ Pfizer

❑ Moderna

❑ AstraZeneca

❑ None of the above

4

Which of the following fintech companies is currently trading below its IPO price.

❑ Coinbase

❑ Robinhood

❑ Affirm

❑ All of the above

5

Which of the following stocks is struggling this year?

❑ Marathon Oil

❑ L Brands

❑ Devon Energy

❑ Ford Motor Company

❑ Netflix

6

Today’s Topics

• Market Factoids

• Good News/Bad News

• Trends

• Key Takeaways

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Consumer Spending

Business Investment

Government Spending

Net Exports

U.S. Gross Domestic ProductAnnual Growth

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

2021 Estimated

11 months

16 months

11 months

16 months

8 months

8 months

18 months

2 months

1969-1970

1970-1975

1980

1981-1982

1990-1991

2001

2007-2009

2020

Recessions1969 to Present

Source: Wall Street Journal

S&P 500Year to Date

Economic recovery begins in May

Po

ints

U.S. surpasses 500,000 deaths February 13th

Source: MarketWatch

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

4,200

4,400

4,600

1/4/2021 2/4/2021 3/4/2021 4/4/2021 5/4/2021 6/4/2021 7/4/2021

1 year anniversary since WHO declared COVID-19

a global pandemic March 11th

S&P 500 Sector PerformanceYTD as of July 30th, 2021

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%H

ealt

h C

are

Co

nsu

me

r D

iscr

etio

nar

y

Co

nsu

me

r St

aple

s

Ene

rgy

Fin

anci

als

Ind

ust

rial

s

Info

rmat

ion

Tec

hn

olo

gy

Mat

eri

als

Re

al E

stat

e

Co

mm

un

icat

ion

Ser

vice

s

Uti

litie

s

Source: Fidelity

FAANG StocksYTD as of July 30th, 2021

Source: Yahoo Finance

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Facebook Amazon Apple Netflix Alphabet

Top Five S&P 500 StocksYTD as of August 6th, 2021

Source: Slickcharts

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

GeneracHoldings

Fortinet Gartner Nucor Corp Moderna

10 Year Treasury YieldYear to Date

Source: Yahoo Finance

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

1/4/2021 2/4/2021 3/4/2021 4/4/2021 5/4/2021 6/4/2021 7/4/2021 8/4/2021

Higher Bond Prices = Lower Yields

Lower Bond Prices = Higher Yields

Yield = Coupon/Price

Monthly InflationHighest Annualized Rate

Source: usinflationcalculator.com

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

12 Month Inflation RateAs of June 2021

Source: usinflationcalculator.com

5.4%

2.4%

24.5%

4.5%

Inflation - all items

Food

Energy

Core Inflation - all items less food and energy

Bad News

• Going through the Big D

• Stimulus benefits are expiring

• Rising inflation

• Stimmy money has created supply and demand mismatch

• Goods vs services

• The U.S. has borrowed heavily to fund stimulus

Good News

• Economic growth is back

• Higher employment

• Increased savings

• Less consumer debt

• Pandemic adapted

Kinda Sorta

• Housing demand

• Infrastructure and taxes

• Low interest rates

Winners

• Services

• Restaurants

• Bars

• Clothing/accessories

• Energy

• Real Estate

• Communications

Losers

• Some durable goods

• Furniture

• Building supplies

• Sporting goods

• Consumer staples

• Utilities

Key Takeaways

• Economy is strong but uncertain

• Services vs Goods

• The virus still poses huge risks here and abroad

• Less stimulus

• Interest rates

• Businesses have lots of credit

23

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2020

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• Professional Designations Database

• 401K Save the Max Calculator

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• Investor Knowledge Quiz

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2020

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2020

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• Register at firstnations.org

27

Autumn Romero Shawn Spruce

(303) 774-7836 (505) 917-0709

aromero@firstnations.org agoyopi@gmail.comfirstnations.org nativesonabudget.com

SHAWN SPRUCETRAINING AND CONSULTING