yves ekoué amaÏzo, ph d, mba
Post on 23-Feb-2016
35 Views
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.com
1
Africa’s economic Development in the context of “Learning from Sweden” after Dag Hammarskjöld’s Death
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Conference organized by The Other Canon Foundation and the Dag Hammarskjöld Foundation in Norway
The Voksenåsen Hotel
Oslo, 25 November 2010
Yves Ekoué AMAÏZO, Ph D, MBADirector of the Afrology Think Thank and International Consultant
Email : yeamaizo@afrology.com Internet: www.afrology.com and www.amaizo.info
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.comContent :
1. The Margin of Freedom2. Gain Control over Resources and
Budget3. The Process of Change: State as a
Regulator4. An Alternative Development is
Possible5. “Afrocentricity” as an alternative
paradigm?
2
AFRICA’S NEW OPPORTUNITIES
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.com
1. Development needs a margin of freedom
3
AFRICA’S NEW OPPORTUNITIES
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.com
1.21.2
5
2.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
Diaspora's Remittances Foreign DirectInvestment
Official DevelopmentAssistance (Aid)
Portofolio Investment
Subsaharan Africa:Capital Flows
Sub-Saharan Africa: Capital flows, 2009(in % of GDP)
Aid for ever ? Between dependency,
sovereignty and influence
Source : IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2009
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.com
0.8
0.580.53
0.470.43 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.41 0.39 0.38
0.34 0.32 0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2 0.18 0.18
0.82
0.98
0.880.92
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Net Official Development Assistance, 2008(in % of GDP, per country)
Only 5 countries are really committed to 0.7 % of GDP, the UN minimum solidarity target !
Tony Addison, Channing Arndt, and Finn Tarp (2010).The Triple Crisis and the Global Aid Architecture, Working Paper No. 2010/01, UNU-WIDER, January 2010 .
0.47 % of GDP on average for High income countries!
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.com
2. GAINING CONTROL OVER RESOURCES AND BUDGET
6
AFRICA’s NEW OPPORTUNITIES
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.com
4.9
5.45.5
5
2.6
5.5
76.46.3
7.2
5
7.4
2.8
5.1
4.1
2
5
65.8
5.3
5.8
6.9
3.8
3.44.6
4.2
4.8
-0.6
2.8
5.35.2
4.64.9
3.63.2
2.9
1.81.5
2.1
-3.8
-0.5
22.3
1.92.5
1.3
2.1
1.1
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1992-2001
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015
Subsaharan Africa
North Africa and Middle East
World
High income countries
7
AFRICA AND ECONOMIC RESILIENCE:Real GDP growth, 2004-2011, en %
Source IMF, WEO October 2010: Recovery, Risk and Rebalancing, p.177.
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.com
7.7
5.7
3.3
1.2
6.1
3.8
6.4
5.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2004-08 2009 2010 2011
Resource Intensive CountriesNon-Resource-Intensive Countries
8
Subsaharan Africa:Real GDP Growth, 2004-2011, en %
Source IMF, REO, SSA, April 2010, p.66.
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.com
25.5
13.9
19.1
19.3
-5.9
-6.3
-6.8
-7
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Resource IntensiveCountries
Non-Resource-IntensiveCountries
2011201020092004-08
9
Subsaharan Africa: Trade Balance, 2004-2011, in % of GDP
Source IMF, REO, SSA, April 2010, p.82.
TWO AFRICAS ?
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.com
21.6
21
25.1
24.1
24.8
24.1
19.9
22.3
22.9
20.9
22.3
20.8
21.2
19.5
23.3
25.3
23.8
26.3
27.2
23.5
24.5
25
23.6
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Revenues (Excl. Grants)
Expenditures (Excl. Grants)
SUBSAHARAN AFRICA: PUBLIC EXPENDITURES AND REVENUES,Excluding Grants, (1997-2010, in % of GDP)
10Source: FMI, Perspectives économiques régionales, Afrique subsaharienne, avril 2009, p. 80 et Tony Addison, Channing Arndt, and Finn Tarp (2010).The Triple Crisis and the Global Aid Architecture, Working Paper No. 2010/01, UNU-WIDER, January 2010 .
Consequences of the 2008 Financial Crisis: Policy space divide (10 years back)
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.com
3. THE PROCESS OF CHANGE:STATE AS A REGULATOR
11
AFRICA’s NEW OPPORTUNITIES
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.com
3.3
1.3
2.5
1
1.7
0.9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1981-1990
1991-2002
2003-2009
EMPLOYMENTGDP
12
GDP contraction = Employment contraction !
Source UNCTAD, Trade and development Report, 2010: Employment Globalization and Development, p. 104.
DEVELOPED (INDUSTRIALIZED) COUNTRIES, 1981-2009Structural change: real GDP and Employment
in annual growth rates
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.com
3.6
2.7
4.7
1.9
6.3
2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1981-1990
1991-2002
2003-2009
EMPLOYMENTGDP
13
STRUCTURAL CHANGE: REAL GDP AND EMPLOYMENTDeveloping Countries, 1981-2009, in annual growth rates
GDP Growth = No direct correlation with
Employment Growth !
Source UNCTAD, Trade and development Report, 2010: Employment Globalization and Development, p. 104.
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.com
1.7
2.9
2.8
2.9
5.1
2.9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1981-1990
1991-2002
2003-2009
EMPLOYMENTGDP
14
STRUCTURAL CHANGE: REAL GDP AND EMPLOYMENT, Subsaharan Africa, 1981-2009, in annual growth rates
Policy space does not yet favor Job Creation
in Africa !
Source UNCTAD, Trade and development Report, 2010: Employment Globalization and Development, p. 104.
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.com
4. AN ALTERNATIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
15
AFRICA’s NEW OPPORTUNITIES
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.comNon-neutral Economic Order and Power relations
Ending present economic conventional assumptions
1. Industrialized and Weak industrialized countries have the same strategic interests and objectives in Development (All interests of all countries can be pursued simultaneously through a set of “mutually” supporting policy measures commonly accepted by the “International community” without detriment to any interests or countries)
2. All sovereign countries/nations have equal effective rights, the capacity to use them and the power to enforce them
3. Existing international economic order reflects 'natural' economic order (laws and principles) should not be changed , otherwise, it would seriously affect the 'efficiency' of global economic relations (invisible hand)
4. Social function of allocating and distributing resources and economic activities among different countries is best performed by market mechanisms
16
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.com
Source : * Goldman Sachs: <http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/long-term/crossing-the-rubicon/index.html >
CONTRACTUAL SOLIDARISM?State Interventionism, Commitment and Regulatory role
1. G7 countries’ public debt increased by 40 % in 10 years (2 times more than emerging countries)
2. Industrialized countries (USA, EU) : 150-200 years to move real GDP from 1,000 to 2,000 $ US ; Japan spent 40 years and China only 10 years*
3. Between 2011-2020, 90 % of the new middle class (1.6 billion of additional consumers) will be outside rich industrialized countries (G7)*
4. Economic Solidarity cannot simply rely on the State (not only on taxes)5. Corporate Social Responsibility of Private enterprises supposes a new regulatory
role of State (including decentralized cooperation)6. Social and environment considerations increasingly important: Influence on
social cohesion and economic performances (Productivity at the expenses of social development must be regulated: institutionalyzing contra-power entitities
7. As of 2006, UN principles on “responsible investment” were signed by 689 enterprises (June 2010) roughly $US 21 trillions of Assets (some enterprises with more than $US 3 trillions of Assets)
8. LINKING PRODUCTIVE CAPACITIES, ENVIRONMENT, ETHICS AND SOCIAL OBJECTIVES
17
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.comDag Hammarskjöld's Death :
Fixing UN Low Profile in Implementing Economics
1. Structure the non-market economy in Africa2. Regulate the increasing Inequality Divide3. Promote Purchasing Power among the working class (as
opposed to the rent class or speculation class)4. Develop Co-responsibility of States and Private Entities
(PPP)5. Take Advantage of New opportunities with Trilateral and
Triangular South-South Cooperation6. Ensure Democratical Changes and Political Alternatives 7. Let People participate in the Economic Decision-Making
Process8. Leverage on Cumulative and Increasing Returns: Focusing
on Productive capacities and capabilities18
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.com
5. AFROCENTRICITY AS AN ALTERNATIVE PARADIGM ?
19
AFRICA’s NEW OPPORTUNITIES
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.comGRANT OR RETURN ON INVESTMENT IN AFRICA ?
20
Productive Capacities
Absorption capabilities
Participation in Global Decisions:From G20 to G21
Donors’centricity
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.com
REVISITING SOLIDARISM AND HUMANITARISM
AFRICA’S FUTURE :STRUCTURING ECONOMIC AFROCENTRICITY
REDUCING INEQUALITY DIVIDE
(Lack of Legitimacy between Decision makers and
the Population)
BUILDING POLICY AND BUDGET
SPACES
INFLUENCE WITHOUT POWER
FOCUSING ON INTRA-AFRICAN MARKETS
Non-neutral Economic Order and Delays in Promoting Productive capacities in Africa
Oslo, 25 November 2010 © afrology.com
22Thank You!
Discussions ?
top related