an alternative nuclear future professor bob cywinski bsc, phd, cphys , finstp , sfhea
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An Alternative Nuclear Future Professor Bob Cywinski BSc, PhD, CPhys , FInstP , SFHEA Dean of the Graduate School Special Advisor (Research) International Institute for Accelerator Applications University of Huddersfield. The energy crisis. UK’s CO 2 equivalent emissions by sector. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
LibDem Fringe Meeting, York, 8 March 2014
An Alternative Nuclear Future
Professor Bob CywinskiBSc, PhD, CPhys, FInstP, SFHEA
Dean of the Graduate SchoolSpecial Advisor (Research)
International Institute for Accelerator ApplicationsUniversity of Huddersfield
LibDem Fringe Meeting, York, 8 March 2014
The energy crisis
LibDem Fringe Meeting, York, 8 March 2014
194Mt159Mt
Electricity supply
2011 CO2 equivalent emissions
2050 target
UK’s CO2 equivalent emissions by sector
116
33
88
50
72
Transport
Business
Residential
AgricultureOther (waste etc)
Total: 553Mt CO2
Target: 159Mt CO2
Source: UK GHG Inventory (UNFCCC coverage) (Ricard0-AEA, 2013)(1.5% of the world’s total emissions)
LibDem Fringe Meeting, York, 8 March 2014
DECC figures indicate that in the UK we currently use 5 KW per person:
36%108GW
32%96 GW
32%96GW 42GW
Electricity
66GWlosses
Transport Heating ElectricityGeneration
0.43kg/kWhr0.21kg/kWhr0.21kg/kWhr CO2 emission
2.6 tonnes2.9 tonnes2.9 tonnes CO2 emissionper person per year
Current UK energy usage
LibDem Fringe Meeting, York, 8 March 2014
0.01kg/kWhr0.11kg/kWhr0.11kg/kWhr CO2 emission
0.6 tonnes1.6 tonnes1.6 tonnes CO2 emissionper person per year
The enormity of the task ahead……
48 GW42GW
Electricity
Transport Heating ElectricityGeneration
48 GWElectricity
48 GW
48 GWElectricity
So:
Even if we more than triple our electricity generation to 138GW using only “clean” fuels (10g of CO2 per kWhr) we will still exceed 2050 target by 43%
We have to “clean up” not just electricity generation, but transport and heating:
Total UK annual CO2 emissions
228Mt
LibDem Fringe Meeting, York, 8 March 2014
The options for cleaner electricity:
Energy sourceGrams of CO2
per KWh of electricity
Nuclear 4
Wind 8
Hydroelectric 8
Energy crops 17
Geothermal 79
Solar 133
Gas 430
Diesel 772
Oil 828
Coal 955source: Government Energy Technology Support Unit (confirmed by OECD)
Requires back-up generation
Requires back-up generation
LibDem Fringe Meeting, York, 8 March 2014
Land usage:
Energy sourceWatts per
square metre
Nuclear up to 4000
Wind 2
Hydroelectric 11
Energy crops 0.5
Geothermal 0.017
Solar 5-20
Gas 1000
Diesel 1000
Oil 1000
Coal 1000source: Government Energy Advisor David Mackay (Sustainable energy without the hot air)
Requires back-up generation
Requires back-up generation
Current UK rate of energy consumption is ~1W/m2
LibDem Fringe Meeting, York, 8 March 2014
Summary so far:
We need to increase our generating capacity to 140GW using low carbon technology. Whilst we might get 10% of this with wave and tidal the two more realistic options are:
140 GW is 14 times existing capacity and 35 times present generation
Turbines would occupy approximately 70000 km2
(6 times area of Yorkshireor about 5km deep around the UK coast) and backup would be needed
Cost would be ~£2,100bn
Nuclear Wind
140 GW is equivalent to ~40 Hinckley Cs
They would occupy approximately 40 km2
Cost would be ~£640bn
No backup is required
LibDem Fringe Meeting, York, 8 March 2014
Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
Source: U.K. National Grid statuswww.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
10.5GW Installed capacity (5276 turbines)
Intermittency: UK wind generation 2013
LibDem Fringe Meeting, York, 8 March 2014
Intermittency:
LibDem Fringe Meeting, York, 8 March 2014
Global nuclear capacity
Country No. Reactors GW capacity % Total Electricity
France 58 63 75Sweden 10 9 37South Korea 21 19 31Japan 55 47 29Germany 17 20 26United States 104 101 20Russia 32 23 18United Kingdom 19 11 17Canada 18 13 15India 20 5 321 Others 87 69
Totals: 441 380 14
A comparable global increase in nuclear capacity (x13) similar to that suggested for the UK would consume known U reserves in 20 years !!
LibDem Fringe Meeting, York, 8 March 2014
Annual global use of energy resources
5x109 tonnes of coal
27x109 barrels of oil
2.5x1012 m3 natural gas
65x103 tonnes of uranium
5x103 tonnes of thorium
An alternative fuel?
LibDem Fringe Meeting, York, 8 March 2014
Breeding fuel from thorium
n
232Th
233Th
233Pa233U
b
b
g
27 days
22 mins
Advantages
Does not need processing
Generates virtually no plutonium and less of the higher actinides
233U has superior fissile properties
Disadvantages
Requires introduction of fissile seed (235U or Pu)
The decay of parasitic 232U results in high gamma activity from 208Tl.
LibDem Fringe Meeting, York, 8 March 2014
Past experience with thorium
LibDem Fringe Meeting, York, 8 March 2014
Potential modes of thorium deployment
1. Conventional Systems
(LWR, PWR, HTGR)
2. Molten Salt Reactors
After Weinberg’s Oak Ridge MSRE
3. Accelerator Driven Subcritical
Reactors (ADSRs)
LibDem Fringe Meeting, York, 8 March 2014
Applications of ADSRs
(Ferficon)
LibDem Fringe Meeting, York, 8 March 2014
Summary
Thorium has been used in the past and could now be deployed in conventional, molten salt or ADS reactors providing an alternative, sustainable, safe, low waste and proliferation-resistant technology for nuclear power generation
780kg of thorium = 200 tonnes of uranium (as currently used)
No plutonium need be used and very little is produced
After 70 years the radiotoxicity is 20,000 times less than an equivalent conventional nuclear power station
Thorium systems provide means of burning existing legacy waste
Waste can be mixed with thorium and burnt as fuel, reducing radiotoxicity by orders of magnitude and turning a liability into an asset
LibDem Fringe Meeting, York, 8 March 2014
The Stone Age didn't end because we ran out stones…….
LibDem Fringe Meeting, York, 8 March 2014