an analysis of baltimore’s...
TRANSCRIPT
An Analysis of Baltimore’s Climate
Change Vulnerabilities and
Potential Adaptation Strategies
T. P. Grunert, T. S. Hackel, Z. Z. Hadzick, Y. Yang
AOSS 480: Climate Change Problem Solving
Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Sciences
Final Presentation 19 April 2011
Presentation Agenda
Overview of Regions United States Climactic Regions
Northeast Region
Chesapeake Bay Area
Urban Baltimore
Baltimore Case Studies Eutrophication
Urban Heat Island Effect
Hurricane Isabel
Transportation
Adaptation Recommendations
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United States Regions
3
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/regional-climate-change-impacts
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Northeast Region and Maryland
4
http://alabamamaps.ua.edu/contemporarymaps/usa/regional/index.html
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Chesapeake Bay Area
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engineerofknowledge.wordpress.com
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Urban Drivers of Climate Change
Polluting industries
Commercial businesses
Heavy traffic
Heat Island Effect
Thermal efficiency and urban design
Land cover types
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Urban Impacts of Climate Change
Coastal flooding risks
Rising sea levels
Higher storm surges
Water systems deficiencies
Increased flows
Saltwater intrusion
Increased pollutants
Increased water usage
Higher temperatures
Drought
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Eutrophication Overview
Process by which bodies of water receive
an increase in organic matter loading (algae
blooms) principally due to inputs of nitrogen
and phosphorus
increased production of noxious algal blooms
decreased water clarity
altered food chains
severe depletion of dissolved oxygen
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Eutrophication Overview
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Nitrogen Deposition Hypoxia/Anoxia in Chesapeake
Galloway et al., 2008 Scavia, 2010
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Eutrophication Overview
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Baltimore’s social and economic sectors
closely integrated with the Chesapeake Bay
Impact of global climate change is
contentious topic of major concern
Restrict the overall amount of nitrogen and
phosphorous that enters into the
Chesapeake Bay
Eutrophication
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Biodiversity
Nitrogen cycle
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Eutrophication Temporal and Geographic Scale
Problem and solution spans temporal
timescale
Spans six states and a district including
Delaware, Maryland, New York,
Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia —
and the entire District of Columbia
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Eutrophication Risk assessment
Probability that eutrophication will persist
into the future is extraordinarily high
Population growth will lead to more N and P
fertilizer and further contribute to eutrophication
Global warming will most likely further exacerbate
the predicament
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Urban Heat Island Effect
Urban areas warmer than rural surroundings
Cities have less vegetation and low albedo
surfaces
Higher temperatures aggravate heat related
illness
Increased photochemical smog
Increased air conditioning needs, increasing
peak energy demand
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Urban Heat Island Effect Baltimore
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One of the
strongest
measured heat
islands
Largest measured
land surface
temperature
difference was
10°C
Urban Heat Island Effect Temporal and Geographic Scale
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Temperature difference noticed for 200 years
Exacerbated in recent years by denser cities
More people
More closely packed structures
Global warming will amplify impacts
Effects vary by location
Strong in northeast
Urban Heat Island Effect Risk and probability of occurrence
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Will very likely persist into future
Increasing population exacerbates effects
Global warming will intensify impact
Without mitigation will have detrimental
effects on human health
Hurricane Isabel
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"Hurricane History." National Hurricane Center
Hurricane Isabel
Highlighted these issues:
Sea-level rise
Storm surge
Sinking land mass
Impervious surfaces
Often takes a tragedy to bring attention
to these issues
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Hurricane Isabel Obvious results of sea-level rise
Bay islands disappearing
Cliffs eroding
Low-lying farmlands becoming wetlands
Wetlands turning into ponds
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Hurricane Isabel Past Lessons Learned
San Felipe-Okeechobee
Hurricane of 1928
Devastation:
Lake Okeechobee surge
of 6-9 ft
Over 1,800 flooding
causalities
Outcome:
Realization of affects on
lakes & bays
Hurricane Hazel – 1954
Devastation:
Humber River rose 20 ft
14 homes destroyed & 32
residents killed in 1 hour
Outcome:
Metropolitan Toronto and
Region Conservation
Authority established
Hurricane Effects Risk and Probability of Occurrence
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High threat because of large amount of
water naturally displaced
Chesapeake Bay increases risk due to
water being trapped
Complacency due to sporadic strikes to
region
Transportation
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Sea level rise
Inundation, receding land
Roads, railways, transit systems, airports
GHG emissions
Increasing contribution
MCAP goal
Transportation Projected CO2 Emissions by Sector
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Transportation MCAP CO2 Reduction Goals
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Year
Maryland's Goals
(From 2006 Base
Value)
2012 10% Reduction
2015 15% Reduction
2020 25% Reduction
2050 90% Reduction
Transportation Temporal and Geographic Scale
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Years to decades
Planning and building infrastructure
Baltimore-Washington Metro Area
Major transit hub, including a number of bridges,
airports, and seaports
Adaptation Recommendations Baltimore
Implement impervious surface reduction
program
Tax credits for resurfacing with certified materials
Enhanced environmental/infrastructural
planning
Construction of riparian buffer zones
Planting/protecting trees
Preserving wetlands
Dikes, repaving/rerouting roads
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Supplemental Recommendations Baltimore
Regulation and Taxation of N and P
Integrate efforts with existing policies and
programs
Update building and construction codes
Reduction of GHG emission from
transportation sector to meet MCAP goals
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Evaluation of Recommendations
Pros
Addresses problems
Benefits public health
Preserves ecosystem
Long term economic benefits
Cons
Cost/short term economy
Follow through over extended time
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Questions and Feedback
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Mechanisms to Solve Problem
Currently effluent regulations on sewage
plants and other point sources
Interstate reduction agreement of N and P
Failed to include all states in Chesapeake Bay
watershed
Maryland Department of the Environment
Drafted the Maryland Policy for Nutrient Cap
Management And Trading In Maryland’s
Chesapeake Bay Watershed (nutrient trading
program)
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Mechanisms to Solve Problem
Good start but more needs to be done…
Regulation and taxation throughout the entire
Chesapeake Bay watershed
Regulation Limit N and P
Riparian buffer zones required
Time limit to reach new N and P limitations
Lower effluent levels from point sources
Third party audit could routinely check to see if new
requirements are met
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Mechanisms to Solve Problem
Timeline for new requirements
Taxation - based on amount of N and P
Revenue - R&D and enforcement
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0 5 8 10
Time (years)
Reduce N & P by
50% during winter
and fall on ag fields
Reduce N & P by
75% during winter
and fall on ag fields
Eliminate N & P during
winter and fall on ag fields
Final Presentation – April 19, 2011
Evaluation of Recommendations
Advantageous for human and ecosystem
health
Short-term costs but long-term benefits
Difficult with implementation because of
interstate communication, negotiation, and
governance
model off of current interstate regulations
Opposition because of increased costs
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Eutrophication Climate Drivers
35
Ebi, Kristie L. Regional Impacts of Climate Change: Four Case Studies in the United States. Arlington, VA: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2007. Print.
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Most severe flooding in southern portions of Dorchester, Somerset, and
Queen Anne's Counties.
Hurricane Isabel Maryland County Map
Final Presentation – April 19, 2011