an analysis of orissa (india) budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 pravas mishra, programme manager,...

20
An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990-91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager , CYSD , India [email protected]

Upload: dylan-ramsey

Post on 26-Mar-2015

213 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager, CYSD, India pravas@cysd.org

An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990-91 to 2008-09

Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager , CYSD , India [email protected]

Page 2: An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager, CYSD, India pravas@cysd.org

• Population: 36 million, 3.57 percent of Indian population (11th most populous state in India)

• Nearly 85 percent live in rural areas, 22.1 percent are tribal belonging to 62 ethnic communities; 16.5 percent constitute scheduled castes

• The poverty rate is 47.15 percent, in tribal locations the rate is 84 percent

• Per capita income: 12,388INR (current prices)• The state ranks 11 in Human Development

Index ranking out of 15 major states in India (Value: 0.404)

Page 3: An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager, CYSD, India pravas@cysd.org

• Literacy rate : 63.08 percent (M – 76.1 and F – 51)

• Literacy rate in tribal districts is 30 – 35 percent

• Infant mortality rate is 75 in Orissa contrary to 58 at the national level.

• 54.4% of the children are undernourished

• 76% depend on agriculture

• Agriculture alone provides direct/indirect employment to around 65% of the total workforce (2001 census).

Page 4: An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager, CYSD, India pravas@cysd.org

Policy Declarations vs. Budget Allocation Regional Disparity in Fund Allocation and

Development Indicators among states Inadequate Devolution of Resources to Grass

root institutions Lack of Systematic Research on Budgetary

Allocation and Expenditure Absence of Civil Society Participation in Budget

Process

Page 5: An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager, CYSD, India pravas@cysd.org

Development of Data Base of Orissa State Budget

Engagement with the Legislators and Budget Makers of the State

Development of a Preliminary Resource Base on the State Budget Analysis

Created a space for the citizens to have a dialogue with the state

Page 6: An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager, CYSD, India pravas@cysd.org

Commitment of the state on macro level fiscal fronts

Implications of the macro level fiscal corrections on the social sector expenditures of the state

Page 7: An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager, CYSD, India pravas@cysd.org

Data analysis was made from the secondary sources such as the published budget documents of government of Orissa, Reserve Bank of India, Economic survey of different years.

Pre-reform and post reform phase were considered basing on the initiation of the fiscal reform of the Government. The financial years 2008-09 and 2009-10 were not taken because these two years are having revised and estimated data.

Compounded Annual Growth Rate(CAGR) is calculated by using SPSS i.e. log(Dependent variable) = a + b(Independent variable) CAGR = (Antilog( b) -1) X 100

Elasticity is calculated by using regression coefficient through SPSS

Page 8: An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager, CYSD, India pravas@cysd.org

Revenue deficit was lowest during 1990-91 and highest during 1998-99

Page 9: An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager, CYSD, India pravas@cysd.org

The fiscal deficit was also all-time high at during 1998-99 and the debt as a proportion of GSDP was also highest during that period

Page 10: An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager, CYSD, India pravas@cysd.org

Initiated during 1999 with the advice of the union government of India and 11th and 12th Finance commission of India

Targets were fixed with regard to indicators - Bringing revenue deficit to zero by 2008-09- Fiscal deficit to 2.5 percent of GSDP - Interest payment as a percentage of Revenue

Receipt 18-20 percent

Page 11: An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager, CYSD, India pravas@cysd.org

Revenue deficit declined and attained the status of revenue surplus during 2005-06

Page 12: An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager, CYSD, India pravas@cysd.org
Page 13: An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager, CYSD, India pravas@cysd.org

Decreasing public expenditure

Page 14: An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager, CYSD, India pravas@cysd.org

CAGR of GSDP is less during the post reform in compared to the pre-reform reflecting slow growth of the economy

The growth rate of Total State Expenditure(TSE) lessened during the post reform phase indicating Government’s with drawl from investment activities

Significant fall in the Social Sector Expenditure(SSE) expressing reduced pro-poor allocation

COMPOUNDED ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (CAGR)

Page 15: An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager, CYSD, India pravas@cysd.org

Improvements observed in growth rate of plan, capital as well as revenue receipts

Revenue expenditures significantly reduced during the post reform

Page 16: An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager, CYSD, India pravas@cysd.org

The elasticity of GSDP and Revenue Receipt is more during the post reform in compared to the pre reform implies that the growth of GSDP during the post reform contributed more towards growth in revenue receipt during the post reform.

However, responsiveness of other variables such as the total state expenditure, social sectors expenditure, debt was less during the post reform period.

Thus, though the growth in GSDP was observed during the post reform phase, the contribution towards the social sector expenditure and total state expenditure was less.

Page 17: An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager, CYSD, India pravas@cysd.org

Year Total State Expenditure GSDP Percentage of TSE to GSDP

1990-91 3091.44 10904 28.351991-92 3640.61 14012 25.981992-93 3914.95 15138 25.861993-94 4455.1 18613 23.941994-95 4981.96 22403 22.241995-96 5562.3 27118 20.511996-97 6310.39 26504 23.811997-98 6854.37 32235 21.261998-99 8642.31 35581 24.29

Pre-reform 24.031999-00 10209.66 42910 23.792000-01 11047.38 43493 25.402001-02 12064.74 46946 25.702002-03 13266.61 50223 26.422003-04 15564.99 61422 25.342004-05 15885.8 71428 22.242005-06 15746.36 78953 19.942006-07 19345.99 93374 20.722007-08 22844.33 106466 21.46

Post-reform 23.45

Page 18: An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager, CYSD, India pravas@cysd.org

Period Pre- reform (1990-91 to 1998-99)

Post -Reform (1999-00 to 2007-08)

Whole (1990-2008)

GSDP 15.6 13 13.2Total State Expenditure 12.7 10.9 12.2Plan Expenditure 9.1 9.6 7.6Development Expenditure

10.9 8.9 9.4

Capital Expenditure 5.7 12.5 6.7Total social sector expenditure

13.5 7.6 10.9

Revenue Receipt 10.2 17.8 13.5Revenue Expenditure 14.6 9.6 12.5Debt 15.6 9.6 14.3

Page 19: An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager, CYSD, India pravas@cysd.org

Dependent Variable Independent Variable

Pre-reform Post Reform

Revenue Receipt GSDP 0.66 1.33(elastic)

Revenue expenditure 0.91 0.75

Total State Expenditure 0.80 0.75

Total Social Sector Expenditure

0.85 0.75

Debt 0.97 0.70

Revenue Receipt Total state expenditure

0.79 1.69

Debt 1.20 0.92

*Elasticity > 1: Elastic, <1: Inelastic, = 1: Unitary elastic

Elasticity of Variables

Page 20: An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager, CYSD, India pravas@cysd.org

Thank you