an analysis of tanker and bulker ton mile demand · an analysis of tanker and bulker ton mile...
TRANSCRIPT
1. A short introduction to VesselsValue
2. What is ton mile demand?
3. How do we calculate it?
4. What does it tell us about the market for tankers and bulkers?
TOPICS
INTRODUCTION TO VESSELSVALUE
The Online Shipping & Offshore Market Intelligence and Valuation Service
INTRODUCTION TO VESSELSVALUE
INTRODUCTION TO VESSELSVALUE
ESTABLISHED 2010
OFFICES London (HQ), Isle of Wight (Data), Stoke (Coders), Singapore (Rep)
PEOPLE 85 (from 4 in 2010)
INTRODUCTION TO VESSELSVALUE
CLIENTS 750 logins, 360 companies, 48 countries
CLIENT TYPES Banks, Owners, Funds, Governments, Regulators, Lawyers
WHAT IS TON MILE DEMAND?
TON MILE DEMAND
Laden distance travelled X
Amount of cargo carried
for every vessel in the fleet
DISTANCE TRAVELLED
Identify vessel JOURNEYS A journey is
• Picking up cargo
• Dropping off cargo
Laden Ballast
A VESSEL’S JOURNEYS
A VESSEL’S JOURNEYS
IDENTIFYING JOURNEYS
Not so easy, many complications:
Issue
• AIS draft reporting not good enough to accurately identify
laden/ballast status
Resolution
• Use stoppages + load/discharge port data + clever algorithms
STOPPAGES
Identifying cargo related stoppages critical but not easy
Complications from Stopping for:
• Bunkering
• Surveys
• Drydocking
• Waiting / idling
• Multiple discharges
• Transhipments
STOPPAGES
STOPPAGES
Algorithm driven
VESSEL HEATMAP
TON MILE DEMAND BY VESSEL
TON MILE DEMAND BY COMPANY
TON MILE DEMAND BY ANY GROUPING YOU WANT
COUNTRY TO COUNTRY
PORT TO COUNTRY OR PORT
ACTIVITY
HISTORICAL DEMAND VS SUPPLY (HELPS BUYING / SELLING DECISIONS)
CAPESIZE TON MILE
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2012Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2016Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Demand is growing but so is the fleet
Strong seasonality
CAPESIZE TON MILE DEMAND
5.7% 6.5%
5.1% 3.7%
5.7%
12.2%
17.3%
21.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Annual TMD % Cumulative TMD %
CAPESIZE FLEET GROWTH
3.4%
4.3%
-0.2% 1.4%
3.4%
7.8% 7.6%
9.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Annual Fleet % Cumulative Fleet %
CAPESIZE TON MILE DEMAND – FLEET GROWTH
2.3%
4.5%
9.8%
12.1%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Cumulative TMD % - Fleet Growth %
TRADING ROUTE EVOLUTION (HELPS OPERATIONAL DECISIONS)
PANAMAX BULKERS GRAIN TRADE INTO CHINA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17
Australia - India Australia - China China - China Brazil - China USA - China
USA PRODUCT TANKER TRADE
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
USA Product Tanker Ton Mile Demand Growth by Quarter
Domestic Trade Non Domestic Exports Non Domestic Imports
WHO IS IMPORTING IRANIAN CRUDE?
SUMMARY
