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An Assessment of An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Operational GOES Sounder Products Products By: James Hocker By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK Oklahoma Norman, OK

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Page 1: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

An Assessment of Operational An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products GOES Sounder Products

By: James HockerBy: James Hocker

Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OKNorman, OK

Page 2: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

A special thanks to Bill for giving me the opportunity A special thanks to Bill for giving me the opportunity to volunteer at the office this summer. Also thanks to to volunteer at the office this summer. Also thanks to Greg for overseeing my project and providing me with Greg for overseeing my project and providing me with an aggressive activity plan.an aggressive activity plan.

My short stay at the office has taught me that:My short stay at the office has taught me that:

Experience teaches much more than the booksExperience teaches much more than the books Food is the heartbeat of this office (this is Food is the heartbeat of this office (this is especially true for several forecasters)especially true for several forecasters)

Sooners and Aggies can actually get along Sooners and Aggies can actually get along pretty well together!!pretty well together!!

Page 3: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Outline of TopicsOutline of Topics

Brief overview of the GOES SoundersBrief overview of the GOES Sounders

Products availableProducts available

Configuration in AWIPSConfiguration in AWIPS

Case Study: July 23, 2003 North Texas localized severe Case Study: July 23, 2003 North Texas localized severe weather eventweather event

2-week statistical study2-week statistical study

SummarySummary

Results of other studiesResults of other studies

Resources availableResources available

Page 4: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Overview of the GOES soundersOverview of the GOES sounders

The GOES-8/9 sounders are a new generation of The GOES-8/9 sounders are a new generation of geostationary sounders that replaced the VAS (Visible and geostationary sounders that replaced the VAS (Visible and Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer Atmospheric Sounders) in Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer Atmospheric Sounders) in 1994.1994.11

The sounders:The sounders:

• provide hourly observations over large regionsprovide hourly observations over large regions

• fill in RAOB location gaps: 2000 to 3000 retrievals made fill in RAOB location gaps: 2000 to 3000 retrievals made each hour at 50 km spacingeach hour at 50 km spacing

• illustrate short term changes in moisture and temperature illustrate short term changes in moisture and temperature profiles useful in severe weather nowcastingprofiles useful in severe weather nowcasting

• depict wind profiles by analyzing thermal gradients and depict wind profiles by analyzing thermal gradients and moisture transport.moisture transport.22

Page 5: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Overview of the GOES soundersOverview of the GOES sounders

The sounders utilize 19 spectral bands (18 IR, 1 vis) that The sounders utilize 19 spectral bands (18 IR, 1 vis) that measure varying earth-emitted radiances. Temperature and measure varying earth-emitted radiances. Temperature and moisture profiles can be inferred from this data.moisture profiles can be inferred from this data.11

Figure 1. GOES spectral band centers (and widths) with respect to the earth-emitted spectrum. The bands (lower portion of figure) are displayed at their respective levels of the atmosphere. Temperatures are inferred from CO2 data and moisture is inferred from H2O data.2

Dew Point DataDew Point Data

Temp. dataTemp. data

Page 6: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Overview of the GOES soundersOverview of the GOES sounders

In order to produce moisture and temperature profiles, the In order to produce moisture and temperature profiles, the GOES sounding process includes: GOES sounding process includes:

• determining if the field of view (FOV) is clear or cloudydetermining if the field of view (FOV) is clear or cloudy

• making a ‘first guess’ using the AVN 6-18 hour forecast making a ‘first guess’ using the AVN 6-18 hour forecast (e.g. 12Z run used for Day 1 18Z through Day 2 06Z) in (e.g. 12Z run used for Day 1 18Z through Day 2 06Z) in conjunction with surface observationsconjunction with surface observations• averaging radiances within each clear 5 x 5 FOV, averaging radiances within each clear 5 x 5 FOV, assigning a retrieval location, and applying a bias assigning a retrieval location, and applying a bias adjustmentadjustment• comparing measured radiances to calculated radiances comparing measured radiances to calculated radiances (model); if deviations are within threshold, products are (model); if deviations are within threshold, products are created (otherwise no products are created)created (otherwise no products are created)33

The soundings are highly dependent on the model first guess!! The soundings are highly dependent on the model first guess!!

Page 7: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Overview of the GOES soundersOverview of the GOES sounders

Overall, the GOES soundings are different from RAOB in Overall, the GOES soundings are different from RAOB in that: that:

• GOES soundings depict temperature and moisture profiles GOES soundings depict temperature and moisture profiles as layer averages, not level specific valuesas layer averages, not level specific values

• GOES soundings smooth out temperature and moisture GOES soundings smooth out temperature and moisture features, “but capture the mean vertical profile very well”features, “but capture the mean vertical profile very well”

• GOES soundings are 50 km averages in the horizontal as GOES soundings are 50 km averages in the horizontal as opposed to single point RAOB soundingsopposed to single point RAOB soundings33

The only way to ‘verify’ GOES soundings is through RAOB The only way to ‘verify’ GOES soundings is through RAOB comparisons, however, this method is not ideal comparisons, however, this method is not ideal

Page 8: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Products AvailableProducts Available

The GOES sounder products are separated into 3 groups in The GOES sounder products are separated into 3 groups in AWIPS:AWIPS:

DPI currently consists of: DPI currently consists of:

Figure 2 (left) and Figure 3 (right). Operational (AWIPS) precipitable water and lifted index images, respectively.

• derived product imagery (DPI)derived product imagery (DPI)• atmospheric sounding productsatmospheric sounding products• high density wind productshigh density wind products

• Lifted Index (LI)Lifted Index (LI)• Total Precipitable Water (PW)Total Precipitable Water (PW)

• Skin TemperatureSkin Temperature• Cloud Top HeightCloud Top Height

These images present data in a These images present data in a color-defined image without color-defined image without contours. IR satellite data is contours. IR satellite data is overlaid.overlaid.

Page 9: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Products AvailableProducts Available

Atmospheric sounding products in AWIPS consist of Atmospheric sounding products in AWIPS consist of clear sky temperature and moisture profilesclear sky temperature and moisture profiles

Figure 4, 5, and 6 (from left to right). GOES sounder skew-T (Ft. Worth), cross-section (relative humidity between Dallas, TX and San Diego, CA), and horizontal sounding TPW water images, respectively.4

More sounding products are available from NESDIS More sounding products are available from NESDIS online. Some of the products include vertical sounding online. Some of the products include vertical sounding profiles, horizontal sounding fields, cross sections, and 3-profiles, horizontal sounding fields, cross sections, and 3-hour time difference fields.hour time difference fields.

Page 10: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Products AvailableProducts Available

AWIPS does not currently contain GOES AWIPS does not currently contain GOES high density wind productshigh density wind products

They will become available after the They will become available after the AWIPS OB2 upgrade at the end of AWIPS OB2 upgrade at the end of September 2003September 2003 Wind speed and directions are inferred Wind speed and directions are inferred from satellite image trendsfrom satellite image trends

Figure 7. GOES high density water vapor wind product.4

Figure 8. AWIPS high density wind menu after OB2 upgrade in late September.5

Page 11: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Configuration in AWIPSConfiguration in AWIPS

Figure 9. Future AWIPS satellite menu.5

The major GOES Satellite Sounder The major GOES Satellite Sounder products are available under the satellite products are available under the satellite tab in D2D tab in D2D

DPI are accessible under the ‘GOES DPI are accessible under the ‘GOES Sounder Derived Product Imagery’ tab Sounder Derived Product Imagery’ tab in the satellite menu. These products in the satellite menu. These products are available at any scale except WFO. are available at any scale except WFO. The product is compromised slightly at The product is compromised slightly at this level due to its 50 km x 50 km this level due to its 50 km x 50 km resolution.resolution.

DPI are available roughly 30-35 DPI are available roughly 30-35 minutes after the hourminutes after the hour

Page 12: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Configuration in AWIPSConfiguration in AWIPS

Viewing GOES temperature and moisture profiles Viewing GOES temperature and moisture profiles requires a few more steps:requires a few more steps:

• select ‘GOES Sounding Availability’ from the satellite select ‘GOES Sounding Availability’ from the satellite menumenu

• select the editable points icon from the AWIPS toolbar and select the editable points icon from the AWIPS toolbar and place a point at the site of interestplace a point at the site of interest

• open the volume browser and choose GoesBufr as the open the volume browser and choose GoesBufr as the source, sounding as the field, and the specific point as the source, sounding as the field, and the specific point as the planeplane

To see an application of these different products, let’s consider To see an application of these different products, let’s consider a severe weather case study…a severe weather case study…

Page 13: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Case Study: July 22, 2003 | N. TexasCase Study: July 22, 2003 | N. Texas

On the evening of July 22, 2003, localized severe On the evening of July 22, 2003, localized severe thunderstorms occurred across North Texas. Only slight thunderstorms occurred across North Texas. Only slight chances of precipitation were forecast in the northeast, and chances of precipitation were forecast in the northeast, and SPC day 1 forecasts did not include much of North Texas in a SPC day 1 forecasts did not include much of North Texas in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms until after 00Z.slight risk for severe thunderstorms until after 00Z.

Did the GOES sounder products provide useful data that Did the GOES sounder products provide useful data that could have assisted forecasters in anticipating this event?could have assisted forecasters in anticipating this event?

Figure 10 (left) and Figure 11 (center). SPC Day 1 outlooks on 07/22/03 at 20Z and 00Z, respectively.6 Figure 12 (right). Storm reports from the Storm Prediction Center for 7/22/03. There were a total of 12 reports in N. Texas (7 hail and 5 wind).7

Page 14: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Case Study: July 22, 2003 | N. TexasCase Study: July 22, 2003 | N. Texas

The 12Z morning surface analysis identified a stationary The 12Z morning surface analysis identified a stationary front extending across Arkansas and central Oklahoma. front extending across Arkansas and central Oklahoma. Models forecasted the boundary to slowly progress Models forecasted the boundary to slowly progress southward into North Texas later in the day.southward into North Texas later in the day.

Figure 13. 12Z surface station analysis with frontal boundary and radar overlay. Isobars (blue lines) are also given.8

Page 15: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Case Study: July 22, 2003 | N. TexasCase Study: July 22, 2003 | N. Texas

Figure 14. 12Z KFWD sounding

Relatively dry low Relatively dry low to mid level layerto mid level layer

Small capSmall cap

Fairly steep lapse ratesFairly steep lapse rates

Interesting features from the 12Z KFWD sounding from Interesting features from the 12Z KFWD sounding from that morning included:that morning included:

Page 16: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Case Study: July 22, 2003 | N. TexasCase Study: July 22, 2003 | N. Texas

In addition, the morning sounding from KFWD showed:In addition, the morning sounding from KFWD showed:

With the frontal boundary forecast to approach the area With the frontal boundary forecast to approach the area by mid to late afternoon, the main forecast problems were by mid to late afternoon, the main forecast problems were the level of instability in place later in the day as well as the the level of instability in place later in the day as well as the depth of moisture in the mid and lower levelsdepth of moisture in the mid and lower levels

• a fairly unstable atmosphere with an LI of -4a fairly unstable atmosphere with an LI of -4

• an overall moist sounding with a column PW value of 1.42 an overall moist sounding with a column PW value of 1.42 inchesinches

Let’s see how the GOES sounder LI DPI and GOES Let’s see how the GOES sounder LI DPI and GOES temperature/moisture profiles depicted the environmental temperature/moisture profiles depicted the environmental

changes that occurred throughout the day changes that occurred throughout the day

Page 17: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Case Study: July 22, 2003 | N. TexasCase Study: July 22, 2003 | N. Texas

-5

-7

-3

0

The GOES 18Z LI image with The GOES 18Z LI image with the 6 hr. ETA forecast LI’s the 6 hr. ETA forecast LI’s overlaid (12Z run) show good overlaid (12Z run) show good overall agreementoverall agreement GOES depicts slightly more GOES depicts slightly more unstable regions across Texas and unstable regions across Texas and Oklahoma than the ETA forecast. Oklahoma than the ETA forecast. Notice the axis of higher Notice the axis of higher instabilities in Oklahoma with instabilities in Oklahoma with respect to the surrounding values. respect to the surrounding values.

-4

-6

-1-2

Increased Increased instabilities along instabilities along frontal boundaryfrontal boundary

Figure 15. The 18Z GOES LI DPI (image) with added analysis (black contours). The 12Z ETA 6 hour forecast LI’s (green contours) are overlaid. The GOES scale is shown below.

Let’s progress the GOES LI data Let’s progress the GOES LI data throughout the afternoon…throughout the afternoon…

Page 18: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Case Study: July 22, 2003 | N. TexasCase Study: July 22, 2003 | N. Texas

-5 -7

21Z

Figure 18. 21Z GOES LI. -7

-5

22Z

Figure 19. 22Z GOES LI.

-5

Figure 16. 19Z GOES LI.

19Z-3

-4

-5

-7

20Z

Figure 17. 20Z GOES LI.

Axis continues to Axis continues to destabilize and move destabilize and move southsouth

Trend continuesTrend continues Storms initiateStorms initiate

Page 19: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Case Study: July 22, 2003 | N. TexasCase Study: July 22, 2003 | N. Texas

LAPS LI data helps to support this destabilization trend LAPS LI data helps to support this destabilization trend as well. At 21Z, LAPS data showed an LI maximum of –9 as well. At 21Z, LAPS data showed an LI maximum of –9 along the Red River. Storms formed soon after in Grayson along the Red River. Storms formed soon after in Grayson county in the area of maximum instability.county in the area of maximum instability.

Figure 20. 21Z GOES LI image with 21Z LAPS LI contours overlaid. The two are in very good agreement.

Page 20: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Case Study: July 22, 2003 | N. TexasCase Study: July 22, 2003 | N. Texas

GOES soundings also gave good insight into the change GOES soundings also gave good insight into the change in moisture that was occurring as the day progressed. At in moisture that was occurring as the day progressed. At 19Z, the Grayson County sounding showed:19Z, the Grayson County sounding showed:

Significant moistening in Significant moistening in the mid and lower levelsthe mid and lower levels Figure 21. 19Z

GOES sounding from Grayson County

Cap erosionCap erosion

Page 21: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Case Study: July 22, 2003 | N. TexasCase Study: July 22, 2003 | N. Texas

This can be compared (verified) with the 00Z KFWD This can be compared (verified) with the 00Z KFWD sounding:sounding:

For example: the 750 mb For example: the 750 mb dew point has increased from dew point has increased from -2-2ººC to 10C to 10ººC since 12ZC since 12Z

Figure 22. 00Z KFWD sounding

TPW has increased TPW has increased from 1.42 inches to from 1.42 inches to 1.84 inches since 12Z1.84 inches since 12Z

Visible moistening between Visible moistening between 650 mb and 800 mb since 12Z650 mb and 800 mb since 12Z

Page 22: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Case Study: July 22, 2003 | N. TexasCase Study: July 22, 2003 | N. Texas

Overlaying the KFWD 00Z sounding with the nearest Overlaying the KFWD 00Z sounding with the nearest GOES sounding from 00Z, we see that the GOES sounding GOES sounding from 00Z, we see that the GOES sounding does a good job of depicting the increase in lower level does a good job of depicting the increase in lower level moisture.moisture.

TPW values from TPW values from each sounding are each sounding are equal (1.84 inches)equal (1.84 inches)

RAOB LI is –4.6 RAOB LI is –4.6 and the GOES LI is and the GOES LI is –6.3–6.3

Figure 23. 00Z KFWD sounding (red) with nearby 00Z GOES sounding (green) overlaid

Page 23: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Case Study: July 22, 2003 | N. TexasCase Study: July 22, 2003 | N. Texas

Although not perfect, the GOES soundings around the Although not perfect, the GOES soundings around the DFW area and northward depicted:DFW area and northward depicted:

• an erosion of the capan erosion of the cap

• a significant increase in lower and middle layer moisturea significant increase in lower and middle layer moisture

• increasing instability (max LI’s between –6 and –8)increasing instability (max LI’s between –6 and –8)

• increasing PW values (approaching 2 inches) increasing PW values (approaching 2 inches)

Such favorable comparison of the GOES sounding near Such favorable comparison of the GOES sounding near KFWD with the 00Z RAOB helps to validate the trends that KFWD with the 00Z RAOB helps to validate the trends that were being observed throughout the day were being observed throughout the day

Page 24: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Case Study: July 22, 2003 | N. TexasCase Study: July 22, 2003 | N. Texas

Using the GOES data in conjunction with LAPS data Using the GOES data in conjunction with LAPS data such as moisture convergence and CAPE as well as 0-6km such as moisture convergence and CAPE as well as 0-6km shear, thunderstorms appeared evident in the following few shear, thunderstorms appeared evident in the following few hours on July 22, 2003hours on July 22, 2003

First Storm InitiationFirst Storm Initiation

Figure 26. SPC 22Z 0-6 km shear.9

Figure 25. LAPS 21Z CAPE image with contour overlay

Figure 24. LAPS 21Z moisture convergence image with contour overlay.

Page 25: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

2-week statistical study2-week statistical study

From July 21, 2003 through August 1 (no weekend data), From July 21, 2003 through August 1 (no weekend data), 2003, I compared the moisture and temperature profiles 2003, I compared the moisture and temperature profiles from the 12Z KFWD sounding to the nearest GOES from the 12Z KFWD sounding to the nearest GOES sounding profilesounding profile1313

Although only 10 sounding comparisons were made, the Although only 10 sounding comparisons were made, the results are interesting:results are interesting:

Figure 27 (left). KFWD 12Z sounding temperature data compared to nearby GOES retrieval. Note the warm bias (blue curve) and the RMS error (red curve) near 1 throughout. Figure 28 (right). KFWD 12Z sounding dewpoint data compared to nearby GOES retrieval. There is a warm (moist) bias (blue curve) and the RMS errors (red curve) are considerably higher.

GOES sounder Temp Verification (KFWD)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

Bias (left) and RMS error (right) in degrees C

Pre

ssu

re (

mb

)

GOES sounder Dewpoint Verification (KFWD)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

-0.5 1.5 3.5 5.5 7.5 9.5

Bias (left) and RMS error (right) in degrees C

Pre

ssu

re (

mb

)

Page 26: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

2-week statistical study2-week statistical study

The temperature and dewpoint verification show that the The temperature and dewpoint verification show that the GOES soundings near KFWD had a warm (moist) bias GOES soundings near KFWD had a warm (moist) bias throughout the majority of the atmosphere throughout the majority of the atmosphere

Overall, the temperature profile had an RMS error of 1.08 Overall, the temperature profile had an RMS error of 1.08 ººC and the dewpoint profile had an error of 5.66 C and the dewpoint profile had an error of 5.66 ººCC

The more significant error in the moisture data can be The more significant error in the moisture data can be attributed to the model forecast first guessattributed to the model forecast first guess

Although the moisture profile had a fairly high bias and Although the moisture profile had a fairly high bias and RMS error, total column values (PW) were quite close to RMS error, total column values (PW) were quite close to RAOB PW valuesRAOB PW values

Comparing these results with an 11-month study is also Comparing these results with an 11-month study is also quite interesting:quite interesting:

Page 27: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

2-week statistical study2-week statistical study

The temperature profiles are similar with a warm bias and The temperature profiles are similar with a warm bias and an RMS error which is slightly higher than my study. The an RMS error which is slightly higher than my study. The moisture profiles, however, are quite different with a cooler moisture profiles, however, are quite different with a cooler (drier) bias, most likely due to the season and higher volume (drier) bias, most likely due to the season and higher volume of stations observed in the study.of stations observed in the study.

Figure 29 (left) and Figure 30 (right). RAOB temperature and dewpoint comparisons with nearby GOES sounding data, respectively (bias is left curve, RMS is right curve).2

Page 28: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

2-week statistical study2-week statistical study

Statistical studies have found that:Statistical studies have found that:

• moisture profiles have a much higher error due to model moisture profiles have a much higher error due to model first guessfirst guess• “ “satellite-derived integrated parameters compare better satellite-derived integrated parameters compare better with their sonde-derived counterparts than do level-specific with their sonde-derived counterparts than do level-specific data”data”1010

• there is a demand for the ‘next generation’ of higher there is a demand for the ‘next generation’ of higher resolution spectral soundersresolution spectral sounders

““While we look forward to the day of high-resolution While we look forward to the day of high-resolution geostationary sounders, the radiometers currently geostationary sounders, the radiometers currently available are adding information for both numerical available are adding information for both numerical weather prediction and forecasting applications.”weather prediction and forecasting applications.”1414

Page 29: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Results of other studiesResults of other studies

The brief studies I have performed represent only a small The brief studies I have performed represent only a small fraction of the studies done on GOES soundersfraction of the studies done on GOES sounders

A four month study done by Rao and Fuelberg in 1995 A four month study done by Rao and Fuelberg in 1995 found that:found that:

• at 620 mb the NGM ‘first guess’ temperature was at 620 mb the NGM ‘first guess’ temperature was improved 49% of the time, degraded 11% of the time, and improved 49% of the time, degraded 11% of the time, and not changed (within +/- 0.25%) 40% of the timenot changed (within +/- 0.25%) 40% of the time

• at 620 mb the NGM ‘first guess’ dew point was improved at 620 mb the NGM ‘first guess’ dew point was improved 51% of the time, degraded 34% of the time, and not changed 51% of the time, degraded 34% of the time, and not changed 15% of the time15% of the time• surface to 300 mb NGM ‘first guess’ PW values were surface to 300 mb NGM ‘first guess’ PW values were improved 48% of the time, degraded 31% of the time, and improved 48% of the time, degraded 31% of the time, and not changed 21% of the timenot changed 21% of the time1010

Page 30: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Results of other studiesResults of other studies

A 12-month study by Dostalek and Schmit in 1999 found A 12-month study by Dostalek and Schmit in 1999 found that:that:

• DPI ETA first guess biases were reduced in relatively DPI ETA first guess biases were reduced in relatively moist atmospheres moist atmospheres • there was an “increased accuracy in measuring time there was an “increased accuracy in measuring time tendencies of TPW”tendencies of TPW”1111

An 11-month study during 1996-1997 by Menzel et. al. An 11-month study during 1996-1997 by Menzel et. al. found that:found that:

• GOES LI values were found to be 0.6GOES LI values were found to be 0.6ºC more unstable on ºC more unstable on average than LI’s found from collocated RAOB sitesaverage than LI’s found from collocated RAOB sites• GOES retrievals reduced first guess RMS errors at all GOES retrievals reduced first guess RMS errors at all levels and the bias was reduced by “up to 0.3 K between 960 levels and the bias was reduced by “up to 0.3 K between 960 and 650 mb”and 650 mb”22

Page 31: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Testing the ETA model with GOES PW data in 1996: Testing the ETA model with GOES PW data in 1996:

The NWS performed a field assessment of the GOES The NWS performed a field assessment of the GOES sounder products in 1999 (with 37 Forecast offices sounder products in 1999 (with 37 Forecast offices participating) and found:participating) and found:

• reduced the 24-hour precipitation false alarm rates by 10-reduced the 24-hour precipitation false alarm rates by 10-20%20%• improved the equitable threat score from 0.2 to 0.3improved the equitable threat score from 0.2 to 0.3

• resulted in operational use of PW retrievals in Oct. 1997resulted in operational use of PW retrievals in Oct. 199722

Results of other studiesResults of other studies

• “ “Participants indicated the use of GOES Sounder products Participants indicated the use of GOES Sounder products heightened their situational awareness to potential heightened their situational awareness to potential watch/warning scenarios.”watch/warning scenarios.”• the GOES sounder products led to improved forecast the GOES sounder products led to improved forecast products “in over 79% of all active weather situations”products “in over 79% of all active weather situations”1212

Page 32: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

SummarySummary

GOES sounding Pros:GOES sounding Pros:

Hourly updated dataHourly updated data

Column data (e.g. PW) found to be quite goodColumn data (e.g. PW) found to be quite good GOES data improves model data more often than notGOES data improves model data more often than not

Helps to pick up on trends; fills in RAOB space/time gapsHelps to pick up on trends; fills in RAOB space/time gaps

GOES sounding Cons:GOES sounding Cons:

Sounder profiles only available in clear conditionsSounder profiles only available in clear conditions Soundings are highly dependent on model dataSoundings are highly dependent on model data Moisture data is inconsistent (more volatile than temps.)Moisture data is inconsistent (more volatile than temps.) Sounder resolution (horiz. and vert.) needs improvement Sounder resolution (horiz. and vert.) needs improvement

Page 33: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

SummarySummary

GOES sounder data has proven to be a useful operational GOES sounder data has proven to be a useful operational tool through various operational and statistical studiestool through various operational and statistical studies

Although not perfect (however there is no way to fully Although not perfect (however there is no way to fully measure its accuracy), GOES data helps to visualize measure its accuracy), GOES data helps to visualize temporal trends and give a good volumetric depiction of the temporal trends and give a good volumetric depiction of the atmosphere at many more locations than RAOB data offeratmosphere at many more locations than RAOB data offer

Its most effective uses at this particular office would be in: Its most effective uses at this particular office would be in:

• pre-convective environments, especially when cap strength pre-convective environments, especially when cap strength or moisture trends are the forecast problems of the dayor moisture trends are the forecast problems of the day• spring season Gulf of Mexico moisture return scenarios spring season Gulf of Mexico moisture return scenarios

• events when the magnitude of upper level jet streaks and events when the magnitude of upper level jet streaks and wind shear are significant forecast problemswind shear are significant forecast problems

Page 34: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Resources AvailableResources Available

Online Case StudiesOnline Case Studies• http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/cases/cs1/casestudy1.htmlhttp://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/cases/cs1/casestudy1.html

• http://orbit35i.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/cases/jarrellhttp://orbit35i.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/cases/jarrell

• http://orbit35i.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/cases/fltorn/html/fltorn.htmlhttp://orbit35i.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/cases/fltorn/html/fltorn.html

• http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fsd/eros.htmlhttp://www.crh.noaa.gov/fsd/eros.html

Online GOES Data linksOnline GOES Data links• http://orbit35i.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/http://orbit35i.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/

• http://orbit35i.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/soundings/skewt/html/skewtus.htmlhttp://orbit35i.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/soundings/skewt/html/skewtus.html

• http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/realtime/http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/realtime/

Training SoftwareTraining Software• Comet Forecaster’s Multimedia Library, Satellite Meteorology: Comet Forecaster’s Multimedia Library, Satellite Meteorology: Using the GOES Sounder (6 case studies)Using the GOES Sounder (6 case studies)

Page 35: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Questions, comments?Questions, comments?

Page 36: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

ReferencesReferences11Menzel, W. P. and J. F. W. Purdom, 1994: Introducing GOES-I: The First of a New Generation of Menzel, W. P. and J. F. W. Purdom, 1994: Introducing GOES-I: The First of a New Generation of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites. Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites. Bulletin of the American Bulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyMeteorological Society, , 7575, 757-781., 757-781.

22Menzel, W. P., F. C. Holt, T. J. Schmit, R. M. Aune, A. J. Schreiner, G. S. Wade, and D. G. Gray, Menzel, W. P., F. C. Holt, T. J. Schmit, R. M. Aune, A. J. Schreiner, G. S. Wade, and D. G. Gray, 1998: Application of GOES-8/9 Soundings to Weather Forecasting and Nowcasting. 1998: Application of GOES-8/9 Soundings to Weather Forecasting and Nowcasting. Bulletin of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyAmerican Meteorological Society , , 7979, 2059-2077., 2059-2077.

33Satellite Meteorology: Using the GOES Sounder, 1998. COMET Forecaster’s Multimedia Library.Satellite Meteorology: Using the GOES Sounder, 1998. COMET Forecaster’s Multimedia Library.

44http://orbit35i.nesdis.noaa.gov/goeshttp://orbit35i.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes

55http://onestop.noaa3.awips.noaa.gov/awipsdoc/aumob2/2_1_6_9.htmhttp://onestop.noaa3.awips.noaa.gov/awipsdoc/aumob2/2_1_6_9.htm

66http://www.spc.noaa.gov/outlookshttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/outlooks

77http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/030722_rpts.htmlhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/030722_rpts.html

88http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sfc_map/0307/03072212.gifhttp://weather.unisys.com/archive/sfc_map/0307/03072212.gif

99http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysishttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis

1010Rao, P. A. and H. E. Fuelberg, 1998: An Evaluation of GOES-8 Retrievals. Rao, P. A. and H. E. Fuelberg, 1998: An Evaluation of GOES-8 Retrievals. Journal of Applied Journal of Applied MeteorologyMeteorology, , 3737, 1577-1587., 1577-1587.

1111Dostalek, J. F. and T. J. Schmit, 2001: Total Precipitable Water Measurements from GOES Sounder Dostalek, J. F. and T. J. Schmit, 2001: Total Precipitable Water Measurements from GOES Sounder Derived Product Imagery. Derived Product Imagery. Weather and ForecastingWeather and Forecasting, , 1616, 573-587., 573-587.

12122000: 1999 NWS Field Assessment of GOES Sounder Products, Final Report2000: 1999 NWS Field Assessment of GOES Sounder Products, Final Report

Page 37: An Assessment of Operational GOES Sounder Products By: James Hocker Undergraduate, University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

ReferencesReferences1313http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/naconf.html andhttp://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/naconf.html and

htttp://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/soundings/skewt/html/skewtus.htmlhtttp://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/soundings/skewt/html/skewtus.html

1414Schmit, T. J, W. F. Feltz, W. P. Menzel, J. Jung, A. P. Noel, J. N. Heil, J. P. Nelson III, and G. S. Schmit, T. J, W. F. Feltz, W. P. Menzel, J. Jung, A. P. Noel, J. N. Heil, J. P. Nelson III, and G. S. Wade, 2002: Validation and Use of GOES Sounder Moisture Information. Wade, 2002: Validation and Use of GOES Sounder Moisture Information. Weather and Weather and ForecastingForecasting, , 1717, 139-154., 139-154.

Bosart, Lance F., 2003: Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process? Bosart, Lance F., 2003: Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process? Weather and Weather and ForecastingForecasting, , 1818, 520-529., 520-529.

Feltz, W. F., W. L. Smith, H. B. Howell, R. O. Knuteson, H. Woolf, and H. E. Revercomb, 2003: Near-Feltz, W. F., W. L. Smith, H. B. Howell, R. O. Knuteson, H. Woolf, and H. E. Revercomb, 2003: Near-Continuous Profiling of Temperature, Moisture, and Atmospheric Stability Using the Continuous Profiling of Temperature, Moisture, and Atmospheric Stability Using the

Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI). Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI). Journal of Applied MeteorologyJournal of Applied Meteorology, , 4242, 584-597., 584-597.

Hayden, Christopher M., G. S. Wade, and T. J. Schmit, 1996: Derived Product Imagery from GOES-8. Hayden, Christopher M., G. S. Wade, and T. J. Schmit, 1996: Derived Product Imagery from GOES-8. Journal of Applied MeteorologyJournal of Applied Meteorology, , 3535, 153-162., 153-162.

Moller, A. R., Severe Local Storms Forecasting. Moller, A. R., Severe Local Storms Forecasting. Meteorological MonographsMeteorological Monographs, , 2828, 433-480., 433-480.

Rao, P. A. and H. E. Fuelberg, 1997: Diagnosing Convective Instability from GOES-8 Radiances. Rao, P. A. and H. E. Fuelberg, 1997: Diagnosing Convective Instability from GOES-8 Radiances. Journal of Applied MeteorologyJournal of Applied Meteorology, , 3636, 350-364. , 350-364.

Additional Uncited ReferencesAdditional Uncited References