an equity perspective paul malan global markets 21 january 2004

7
An Equity Perspective Paul Malan Global Markets 21 January 2004

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Page 1: An Equity Perspective Paul Malan Global Markets 21 January 2004

An Equity PerspectivePaul MalanGlobal Markets21 January 2004

Page 2: An Equity Perspective Paul Malan Global Markets 21 January 2004

2

Global Markets

Discussion Points

1 UK Water Characteristics

2 Financing of Growth

3 UK Water in an International Context

Page 3: An Equity Perspective Paul Malan Global Markets 21 January 2004

3

Global Markets

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04

C.C. Op. Profit / Asset Value

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

Purchase Price /Asset Value

1. UK Water Characteristics

Asset Returns and Purchase Prices as a % of Asset Value

Sources: Ofwat publications, brokers reports, press releases, company releases and estimates.

Page 4: An Equity Perspective Paul Malan Global Markets 21 January 2004

4

Global Markets

2. Financing of Growth

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Est. AMP4 C.C. Op. Profits

Est. AMP4 Net Capex

Est. AMP4 Gross Capex

Est. Equity ('03)

Debt ('00 vs '03)

Asset Value ('03)

Selected Parameters relating to UK Water Growth (£ billion)

Sources: Ofwat publications, company reports press releases and estimates.

Page 5: An Equity Perspective Paul Malan Global Markets 21 January 2004

5

Global Markets

3. UK Water in an International Context

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

UK Water UK Electricity North AmericanEnergy

Australia Energy

Indicative Purchase Prices as a % of Asset Value

Sources: Brokers reports, company releases, press releases and estimates.

Page 6: An Equity Perspective Paul Malan Global Markets 21 January 2004

6

Global Markets

Conclusion

Tensions facing UK water suggest favourable outlook

Ongoing support required for a range of sources of finance

Attractive in an international context

Page 7: An Equity Perspective Paul Malan Global Markets 21 January 2004

7

Global Markets

Important Notice

This presentation has been approved for issue in the UK by Deutsche Bank AG London, which is regulated by The Financial Services Authority Limited in the conduct of its investment business in the UK. It may not be distributed to, or used by, private customers as defined by The Financial Services Security Handbook of Rules and Guidance. This presentation is issued for information purposes only and does not constitute an agreement, offer or an invitation to enter into transactions or investment business. Unless expressly indicated elsewhere, this presentation is intended to provide general information regarding the products described herein and has not been tailored to the investment objectives, financial situation or specific needs of any particular investor. In making this presentation, Deutsche Bank AG is not acting and does not purport to act in any way as your advisor or as a fiduciary and we do not provide any recommendations or advice with respect to the products mentioned herein. We strongly suggest that you seek your own independent accounting, tax, legal and regulatory advice in all relevant jurisdictions in order to fully understand the merits and the associated risks prior to entering into any transaction. To the extent not prohibited by law, neither Deutsche Bank AG nor any of its subsidiaries, affiliates or any of their respective employees accepts any liability or responsibility whatsoever (whether direct or consequential) with respect to this presentation or its contents. Whilst this presentation has been produced from sources believed to be reliable, Deutsche Bank AG makes no representation or warranty whatsoever (whether express or implied) as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Interested parties should contact their Deutsche Bank AG representative for further information.