Technical Report Documentation Page

1. Report No. FHWA/TX-09/0-5667-1

2. Government Accession No.

3. Recipients Catalog No.

4. Title and Subtitle An Examination of Land Use Models, Emphasizing UrbanSim, TELUM, and Suitability Analysis

5. Report Date October 31, 2008

6. Performing Organization Code 7. Author(s)

Kara Kockelman, Jennifer Duthie, Siva Karthik Kakaraparthi, Bin (Brenda) Zhou, Ardeshir Anjomani, Sruti Marepally, and Krishna Priya Kunapareddychinna

8. Performing Organization Report No. 0-5667-1

9. Performing Organization Name and Address Center for Transportation Research The University of Texas at Austin 3208 Red River, Suite 200 Austin, TX 78705-2650

10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) 11. Contract or Grant No.

0-5667

12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address Texas Department of Transportation Research and Technology Implementation Office P.O. Box 5080 Austin, TX 78763-5080

13. Type of Report and Period Covered Technical Report September 2006-August 2008

14. Sponsoring Agency Code

15. Supplementary Notes Project performed in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and the Federal Highway Administration.

16. Abstract This work provides integrated transportation land use modeling guidance to practitioners in Texas regions of all sizes. The research team synthesized existing land use modeling experiences from MPOs across the country, examined the compatibility of TELUMs and UrbanSims requirements with existing data sets, integrated both UrbanSim and a gravity-based land use modeling with an existing travel demand model (TDM), and examined the results of Waco and Austin land use model runs (with and without transportation and land use policies in place). A simpler, GIS-based land use suitability analysis was also performed, for Waco, to demonstrate the potential value of such approaches. Finally, the knowledge gained from this research project was disseminated to practicing planners through a Resource Manual/Guidebook and two workshops. 17. Key Words

Land use modeling, Integrated transportation-land use modeling, Suitability analysis, Land use planning and policy

18. Distribution Statement No restrictions. This document is available to the public through the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161; www.ntis.gov.

19. Security Classif. (of report) Unclassified

20. Security Classif. (of this page) Unclassified

21. No. of pages 224

22. Price

Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction of completed page authorized

An Examination of Land Use Models, Emphasizing UrbanSim, TELUM, and Suitability Analysis Kara Kockelman Jennifer Duthie Siva Karthik Kakaraparthi Bin (Brenda) Zhou Ardeshir Anjomani Sruti Marepally Krishna Priya Kunapareddychinna

CTR Technical Report: 0-5667-1 Report Date: August 31, 2008 Project: 0-5667 Project Title: Analysis and Guidelines for Establishing Unified Urban Land-Use and

Transportation System Planning Framework and Procedures Sponsoring Agency: Texas Department of Transportation Performing Agency: Center for Transportation Research at The University of Texas at Austin Project performed in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and the Federal Highway Administration.

Center for Transportation Research The University of Texas at Austin 3208 Red River Austin, TX 78705 www.utexas.edu/research/ctr Copyright (c) 2008 Center for Transportation Research The University of Texas at Austin All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America

Disclaimers Author's Disclaimer: The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors, who

are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official view or policies of the Federal Highway Administration or the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT). This report does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation.

Patent Disclaimer: There was no invention or discovery conceived or first actually reduced to practice in the course of or under this contract, including any art, method, process, machine manufacture, design or composition of matter, or any new useful improvement thereof, or any variety of plant, which is or may be patentable under the patent laws of the United States of America or any foreign country.

Notice: The United States Government and the State of Texas do not endorse products or

manufacturers. If trade or manufacturers' names appear herein, it is solely because they are considered essential to the object of this report.

Engineering Disclaimer NOT INTENDED FOR CONSTRUCTION, BIDDING, OR PERMIT PURPOSES.

Project Engineer: Kara M. Kockelman

Professional Engineer License State and Number: Texas # 93443 P. E. Designation: Research Supervisor

Acknowledgments The authors express appreciation to our Project Director, TxDOTs Janie Temple,

Project Coordinator Jack Foster, and Project Advisor Eduardo Calvo. Thanks also go to those at TxDOTs Research and Technology Implementation office: Duncan Stewart (RMC 2 Research Engineer), and Sylvia Medina and Loretta Brown (RMC 2 Contract Managers for this project). The research team appreciates the contributions of Caliper Corporations Dr. Howard Slavin, Margaret Holmes, and Jian Zhang, for the use of TransCAD software and technical support. Finally, we appreciate Houston-Galveston Area Councils Dmitri Messens and the University of Washingtons Hana evkovs assistance in running UrbanSim, via helpful email correspondence.

Products Products associated with this project include the provision of land use modeling

workshops for TxDOT engineers and MPO planners and a Guidebook/ Resource handbook for guidance in the land use forecasting process.

The Part I case-study workshop was held May 27, 2008 in Houston (in conjunction with TxDOTs Transportation Planning Conference) with TxDOT staff, consultants, and MPOs from various regions as participants (47 persons total). The workshop described the value of land use models (LUMs) in transportation planning and the different methodologies that can be used to implement such LUMs. Project PMC members Janie Temple and Duncan Stewart were in attendance. The Part II hands-on workshop was held on Tuesday, July 29, 2008 in Austin, at TxDOT's Riverside Drive Annex. This workshop concentrated on the demonstration and practical application of three land use models. Attendees worked with data in a TransCAD tutorial, in order to forecast land use change using gravity-based land use modeling commands. Demonstrations of Suitability Analysis using ArcGIS tools (with Waco data) and UrbanSim model operations and results (with Austin data) were also provided. The workshop was attended by 20 participants, including TxDOT district personnel, MPO staff members, and transportation consultants. Duncan Stewart and Janie Temple were in attendance.

The Guidebook is not contained in this report, and was delivered separately to RTI on August 31, 2008.

vii

Table of Contents

Chapter 1. Introduction................................................................................................................ 1

Chapter 2. Synthesis of Existing Land Use Modeling Experiences .......................................... 3 2.1 Advantages and Disadvantages of Each Approach for Anticipating Land Use

Future .....................................................................................................................................3 2.2 Summary of Survey Responses .............................................................................................4

Chapter 3. Investigation of Land Use Model Requirements and Compatibility with Existing TxDOT Data and Methods ................................................................................ 7

3.1 Existing Agency Data and Methods ......................................................................................9 3.1.1 UrbanSim ..................................................................................................................... 11 3.1.2 PECAS ......................................................................................................................... 13 3.1.3 TELUM ........................................................................................................................ 14 3.1.4 TRANUS ...................................................................................................................... 15 3.1.5 Linking to a Model of Travel Demand ........................................................................ 17

Chapter 4. Review of Suitability Models and their Potential Contribution .......................... 19 4.1 The Role of Land Suitability Analysis in Land Use/Transportation Modeling ...................19

4.1.1 Suitability Analysis ...................................................................................................... 20 4.1.2 Review of Available Software and Applied Processes ................................................ 21

4.2 Results of Waco, Texas Comparisons using SA Methods ...................................................28 4.2.1 Suitability Analysis ...................................................................................................... 29 4.2.2 Use of ArcGIS .............................................................................................................. 29 4.2.3 Part (a): Suitability Analysis as a Complement to Integrated Modeling ..................... 30 4.2.4 Part (b): SA as for Allocation of Projected Population and Employment ........