an examination on recent upturn in japan national institute of population and social security...
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An Examination on Recent Upturn in JapanAn Examination on Recent Upturn in Japan
National Institute of Population and Social Security ResearchTokyo, Japan
Ryuichi Kaneko
April 28-30, 2010, LisbonJoint Eurostat-UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections
(1) To show the usefulness of population projection in analyzing past and current demographic processes.
(2) To classify and clarify the period effects in terms of changes in cohort fertility schedule.
(3) To see the cause of the recent fertility upturn in Japan. Is it same as Euro & US?
Term “Period Effect”came from epidemiology,specifically from APC-Analysis,denotes changes caused by period phenomena.
Demographer needs another definition,because the Temp-effect is one of period effects, but is caused by cohort changesin age distribution of the event.
Tentative Definition :Period Effect is a change in fertility rate in a certain period, which does not influence the completed fertility of participating cohorts.
Period effect can’t be defined in terms of causes.We usually don’t know the causes of fertility changes. Causes are for us to be identified.
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
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0.14
0.16
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0.20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fe
rtili
ty ra
te
Age
Type-Tl
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0.02
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0.18
0.20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fe
rtili
ty ra
te
Age
Type-Td
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0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fe
rtili
ty ra
te
Age
Type-Ts
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fe
rtili
ty ra
te
Age
Type-H
Type-Tl Type-Td
Type-Ts Type-H
(1) (2)
(3) (4)
Period Effect of type-T isinduced by three types of timing shiftin cohort fertility schedule. type-Tl : location shift type-Td : dispersion shift type-Ts : shape shift
Period Effect of type-H is transient and unpredictable.
incorporated in cohort fertility
projections
can not be in population projections
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15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fe
rtili
ty ra
te
Age
Type-Tl
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fe
rtili
ty ra
te
Age
Type-Td
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fe
rtili
ty ra
te
Age
Type-Ts
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fe
rtili
ty ra
te
Age
Type-H
Type-Tl Type-Td
Type-Ts Type-H
(1) (2)
(3) (4)
0.0.
1.0.
2.0.
3.0.
4.0.
5.0.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
19471950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Nu
mb
er o
f Bir
th To
tal F
ertility R
ate
Year
(x10,000)
Total Fertility RateNumber of
Birth
Baby Boomer(1947-49)highest: 2,696,638('49)
Baby Boomer Junior(1971-74)highest: 2,091,983('73)
"Fiery Horse"(1966): 1,360,974
1.58
4.32
2.14
1.37
The Latest Number2008: 1,091,156
Hinoe-uma
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fe
rtili
ty ra
te
Age
Type-Tl
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fe
rtili
ty ra
te
Age
Type-Td
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fe
rtili
ty ra
te
Age
Type-Ts
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fe
rtili
ty ra
te
Age
Type-H
Type-Tl Type-Td
Type-Ts Type-H
(1) (2)
(3) (4)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
To
tal f
ert
ilit
y r
ate
Year
type-T period effect ?(recuperation?)
or type-H period effect ?
(boom?)
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fe
rtili
ty ra
te
Age
Cohort 1960
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fe
rtili
ty ra
te
Age
Cohort 1970
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fe
rtili
ty ra
te
Age
Cohort 1980
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fe
rtili
ty ra
te
Age
Cohort 1965
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fe
rtili
ty ra
te
Age
Cohort 1975
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fe
rtili
ty ra
te
Age
Cohort 1985
●Actual--- Model
1.18
1.28
1.38
1.48
1.58
1.68
1.78
1.88
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Actual
Projection Model
Year
Tota
l fer
tilit
yra
te
Figure 5 Trends of Total Fertility Rate: Observed and Assumed
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
15-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940+
Total type-H effects (see right scale)
Type
-H P
erio
d ef
fect
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
1st birth2nd birth3rd birth4th & higher
Total type-H effects (see right scale)
Type
-H P
erio
d ef
fect
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
2002/1 2003/1 2004/1 2005/1 2006/1 2007/1 2008/1 2009/1 2010/1
To
tal f
ert
ilityra
te
T
Birth order = Total
Time (month)
0.57
0.59
0.61
0.63
0.65
0.67
0.69
0.71
2002/1 2003/1 2004/1 2005/1 2006/1 2007/1 2008/1 2009/1 2010/1
To
tal f
ert
ilityra
te
T
Birth order = First birth
Time (month)
0.42
0.44
0.46
0.48
0.50
0.52
2002/1 2003/1 2004/1 2005/1 2006/1 2007/1 2008/1 2009/1 2010/1
To
tal f
ert
ilityra
te
T
Birth order = Second birth
Time (month)
0.15
0.16
0.17
0.18
0.19
0.20
0.21
0.22
2002/1 2003/1 2004/1 2005/1 2006/1 2007/1 2008/1 2009/1 2010/1
To
tal f
ert
ilityra
te
T
Birth order = Third and higher
Time (month)
(1) (2) (3) (4)(1) (2) (3) (4)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (1) (2) (3) (4)
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Tota
l fert
ility
rate
Year
TFR of tempo-adjustedcohort fertility rate
ATFRp
TFR
ATFRC
～～
～～
Bongaarts-Feeney'stempo-adjusted TFR
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fertil
ity ra
te
Age
Type-H
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fertil
ity ra
te
Age
Type-H'Type-H Type-H’
Type-H’ is not a genuine period effect, because it changes cohort completed fertility. It rather be classified a period-cohort effect.
The recent upturn could mainly be explained by the period effect, which would not change cohort completed fertility, and particularly the effects that temporally works and would be redeemed in other period ( the type-H period effect ).
The upturn seems to be caused by a rebound of the short term too-low fertility in preceding period, followed by a boom among singles and under-parity families.
These are the different in causes from the upturns seen in the US and Europe with so-called "the tempo transition. “(type-T period effect in our terminology)
However, if boom continues for long enough to raise the levels of completed fertility (type-H‘ effect), the long term prospect should be higher than the presently assumed.
The proposed method seems work well for the past trends to detect type-H period effects. But it may not be reliable for the current trend to the extent that predicted cohort fertility may be unreliable.
Period Effect The period effects should be classified and clarified in terms of cohort fertility schedule shift so that type of period can be sorted and separated.
Projection Techniques for AnalysesModels of population projection can play a significant role in analyzing past and current demographic processes as well as forecasting its future course.
Thank you …
a. Age groups (%)
Years whose "period effect" exceeds 0.03
1989 1994 2006 2007 2008
15-19 4.2 - 2.0 - 6.8 - 5.2 - 2.9
20-24 26.1 10.3 7.8 1.7 2.5
25-29 58.0 42.6 7.9 11.5 16.1
30-34 17.9 32.0 46.5 43.1 39.0
35-39 - 4.0 18.8 42.5 45.5 41.8
40+ - 2.2 - 1.7 2.2 3.4 3.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 (values) (-0.034) ( 0.058) ( 0.065) ( 0.095) ( 0.134)
b. Birth orders (%)
Years whose "period effect" exceeds 0.03
1989 1994 2006 2007 2008
1st birth 57.9 58.9 42.5 40.4 40.8
2nd birth 34.3 27.3 33.6 29.8 30.0
3rd birth 5.6 9.7 19.4 24.0 22.8
4th & higher 2.1 4.1 4.5 5.7 6.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0(values) (-0.034) ( 0.058) ( 0.065) ( 0.095) ( 0.134)
Age group
Birth order
Note: Comparatively outstanding values for the age groups and birth order are underlined.
29.4
29.6
29.8
30.0
30.2
30.4
30.6
2002/1 2003/1 2004/1 2005/1 2006/1 2007/1 2008/1 2009/1
Me
an
ag
e a
t birth
T
Birth order = Total28.0
28.2
28.4
28.6
28.8
29.0
29.2
2002/1 2003/1 2004/1 2005/1 2006/1 2007/1 2008/1 2009/1
Me
an
ag
e a
t birth
T
Birth order = First birth
30.2
30.4
30.6
30.8
31.0
31.2
31.4
2002/1 2003/1 2004/1 2005/1 2006/1 2007/1 2008/1 2009/1
Me
an
ag
e a
t birth
T
Birth order = Second birth 32.4
32.6
32.8
33.0
33.2
33.4
33.6
2002/1 2003/1 2004/1 2005/1 2006/1 2007/1 2008/1 2009/1
Me
an
ag
e a
t birth
T
Birth order = Third and higher
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
To
tal f
ert
ilit
y ra
te
Year
Assumedtrends
Observedtrend
High variant 1.55
Medium variant 1.26
Low variant 1.06
Upturn trend in 2006-2008
Population replacement level
