an example of a fire risk applied to portugal: forest fire combined risk index (icrif)

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An example of a fire risk applied to Portugal: Forest Fire Combined Risk Index (ICRIF)Lourdes Bugalho, IPMA

Polar Satellites Week

EUMETRAIN

(5 to 9 November 2012)


- Why a forest fire risk index

- Advantage of the spatial resolution of low orbit polar (NOAA(EPS) /AVHRR) compared with GEO satellites system (MSG/SEVIRI)

- Factors of Forest Fire

- Forest Fire Risk Indexes:

- Fire Weather Index (FWI)

- Forest Fire Combined Risk Index (ICRIF)

Outline


Why a forest fire risk index ?

Forest fires are one of the most devastating natural disasters that occur in mainland Portugal in the summer, with an impact on the economy, environment and climate.

Portugal Continental - Burnt Area (ha)

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

year

Bu

rnt

Are

a (

ha)

.

Anual Average 1981-2010


Spatial resolution of LEO vs. GEO satellites Distrito

Pixel spatial Resolution

(1.1 x 1.1 km)

Pixel spatial Resolution

(~ 4x4 km)

V.Castelo 3299 148 Bragança 9700 438

V. Real 6341 271Porto 3383 153Viseu 7203 344

Aveiro 4025 184Coimbra 5609 270

C. Branco 9295 443 Santarém 9249 437

Portalegre 8347 402 Évora 9982 503

Lisboa 3823 182 Setúbal 6763 341

Beja 13569 704 Faro 6508 347

Low flight altitude leads a higher ground resolution than geostationary satellites.

Over Portugal, the number of pixels is:

-123882 AVHRR(NOAA/EPS)

- 5899 SEVIRI (MSG).


28 AUGUST 2012

ICRIF (Combined Fire Risk Index)Spatial Resolution 1.1 x 1.1 km

(AVHRR/NOAA)

FRM (Fire Risk Map - LSASAF)Spatial Resolution ~ 4 x 4 km

(SEVIRI/MSG)

Spatial resolution of LEO vs. GEO satellites


Meteorological conditions

FWI(Canadian Fire Weather Index)

Vegetation conditions

NDVIRisk associated to a Veg. index

Land cover - Structural RiskRisk associated to a land cover map (CORINE)

Computed once a year on the beginning of the fire season

ICRIF

ICRIF


FWI - Canadian Fire Weather Index

FWI is spatialized to grid the AVHRR / NOAA or EPS images (aprox.1.1kmx1.1km)

recommended by

European Commission 1995 calculated in 85 stations parameters required: air temperature,

relative humidity,

wind direction and velocity at 10m,

rainfall in the last 24 hours performs very good compared

with several other indices


FWI - 20120828FWI - 20120829

FWI spatialized to 1.1 x 1.1 km


CLC 2000: polar satellites used :

SPOT-Panchromatic channel, resolution 10x10 m

Landsat–MSS (sensor), resolution 80x80 m

Spatial resolution of CORINE Land Cover 2000

(100 x 100m)

Land cover and vegetation type map made from CORINE 2000 database

Structural risk – Land Cover

Structural risk level for fire ignition and propagation: processed by scaling CORINE 2000 with resolution of 1.1 km (AVHRR resolution at nadir)


Ris

k fa

ctor

CORINE Land Cover 2000

Land Cover Classification – 42 classes


1.1 km

1.1 km

Ak * Rk

FUELRISK = (Ak * Rk)

Structural Risk Each NOAA pixel is represented by a vector with 42 elements, giving the area occupied by each of the CORINE components.

The structural risk was built assigning a risk to each of the classes (Rk)The final structural risk (FUELRISK) for each pixel is a combination of the different risk pondered by the corresponded area

Vector = [A1*R1 ..... A42*R42]

CORINE resolution = 100m x 100m

stotalPixel

PixelsA kK #

#

Each NOAA pixel contain information about all 42 classes


(Ak * Rk)

From CORINE to Structural RiskCLC 2000 Structural risk


AVHRR/NOAA the best satellite angle

a passage over Portugal between 11-15 UTC - zenith solar angle less than 50º (between May and October)

shift composite of 10 days NDVI computed considering the maximum value of NDVI in 10 days

CH1 (VIS): 0.58 - 0.68 m

CH2 (NIR): 0.725 - 1.1 m

NDVI

12

12

CHCH

CHCHNDVI

28 August 2012

Spatial resolution 1.1 x 1.1 km


28 AUGUST 2012

ICRIFICRIFNDVIfFuelFWIa )(**


validation of a fire risk:

linking forest fire events (number and burnt areas) with the risk

Daily comparison between risk and burnt area for each district

Contingent table for each district

not easy

ICRIF


References

Bugalho, L., Pires, V., 2005 – “Monthly Analyse of NDVI at Portugal and their Relationship with Soil Water Balance “– Proceeding of 4ª Simpósio de Meteorologia e Geofísica da APMG, 14 a 17 Fevereiro 2005.

Bugalho, L., Pessanha, L., 2007 – “Análise e validação do Índice de Risco de Incêndio Florestal” –Proceeding of 5º Simpósio de Meteorologia e Geofísica da APMG, 5 a 8 Fevereiro 2007.

Bugalho, L. and Pessanha, L., 2007: “The forest fire risk index (ICRIF) operational processing and validation”. 4th International Wildland Fire Conference, 13th-17th May 2007, Seville, Spain.

Bugalho, L., Pessanha, L., 2009 - “Análise Estatística dos Incêndios Florestais em Portugal e Avaliação do Índice ICRIF”- Territorium nº16 2009 Rev. da Associação Port. de Riscos Prevenção e Segurança


Thank you !

an example of a fire risk applied to portugal: forest fire combined risk index (icrif)

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