an excel-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast. per sparre

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and FisheriesDanish Institute for Fisheries Research

An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-

based forecast.

Per Sparre Danish Institute for Fisheries Research.

Department of Marine Fisheries.

ICES CM 2003/V:07


ICES CM 2003/V:07

Toolbox of Visual Basic routines EXCEL user-interface

Mixed fisheries and assessment of the effect of management

Deterministic and stochastic simulation.

User-friendly software, Stand-alone ordinary ECEL-workbook

Open source Visual Basic sub-routines, Can be inspected and modified by the user.

The highest degree of transparency of code

Comprehensive on-line help-facility and user’s manual.

An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast.


COMPONENTS OF THE TOOL-BOX (TEMAS *)

a) ICES Prediction model (Basic model)

combined with:

b) A simple micro-economic model

c) A model of fisher’s behaviour

*) TEMAS Project: Technical Measures – Development of evaluation model and application in Danish fisheries.


ICESFORECAST

MODEL

BASIC TEMAS MODEL

VPA DATABASE *)

*) EMAS report and Sparre et al, 2001


Fleet 1 Fleet 2

Species

ASpecies

B

Fleet 1 Fleet 2

Species

ASpecies

B

Area 1

Area 2

Multi species

Multi Fleet

Multi Area


A B C

The migration is modelled in a time discrete manner:

Migration takes place at the end of each time period and the process of migration takes zero time.


BIOLOGICALMODEL

FishingM ortality

F

Yield(w eight of

catch)

Y

ECONOMICMODEL

Cost ofFishing

C

Revenue(Value of catch)

Y

Fishing Effort(fishing days) Price/kg

F = Q * Effort

C = (Cost/day)*Effort

Value = Y * (Price/Kg)Capacity(Num ber of

vessels)

Econom icAnalyses

B io logica lAnalyses


SSB IN LAST YEAR (10000 simulations)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

27 1275

2523

3770

5018

6265

7513

8761

10008

11256

12504

13751

14999

SSB

FR

EQ

UE

NC

Y


TEMAS BASIC MODEL(ICES FORECAST MODEL)

MODULE 5:SPATIAL COMPONENTS

MODULE 9:ECONOMIC COMPONENTS

MODULE 8:BEHAVIORAL COMPONENTS

MODULE 1:TECHNICAL MANAGEMENT

MODULE 6:QUOTA MANAGEMENT

MODULE 7:STRUCTURAL MANAGEMENT

MODULE 4:SEASONAL COMPONENTS

MODULE 2:MULTI-SPECIES COMPONENT

MODULE 3:MULTI-FLEET COMPONENT

MODULE 3a:MULTI-COUNTRY COMPONENT

MODULE 3b:MULTI-RIGGING COMPONENT

STOCHASTICSIMULATION

TEMASDATABASE


Note: This is not a commercial for Microsoft Office. (EXCEL has bugs by the thousands, and behave strangely! - but everybody has it)


VISUAL BASIC

OPEN SOURCE – USER FRIENDLY CODE


1 2 3 4 5 6 7AGE 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9AGE 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8AGE 2

AGE 3

1 2 3 4AGE 4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10AGE 5

1 2 3 4AGE 6

1 2 3 4 5AGE 7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8AGE 8

1 2 3 4 5 6AGE 9

1 2 3 4 5 6 7AGE 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9AGE 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8AGE 2

AGE 3

1 2 34 AGE 4

1 23 4 5 6 7 8 910 AGE 5

1 2 3 4AGE 6

1 2 3 4 5AGE 7

1 23 4 5 6 7 8AGE 8

1 2 3 45 6AGE 9

1 2 3 4 5 6 7AGE 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9AGE 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8AGE 2

AGE 3

1 2 3AGE 4

1 2 4 5 67 8 9AGE 5

1 234 AGE 6

2 3 4 5AGE 7

1 2 4 56 7 8AGE 8

1 2 3 4 6AGE 9

1 2 3 4 5 6 7AGE 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9AGE 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8AGE 2

AGE 3

1 2 3AGE 4

2 4 5 6 8 9AGE 5

1 2AGE 6

2 3 4 5AGE 7

1 2 4 5 7 8AGE 8

12 34 6 AGE 9

Decom-missions

Dis- in-vestments

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

AGE 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

AGE 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

AGE 2

AGE 3

1 2 3

AGE 4

2 4 5 6 8 9

AGE 5

1 2

AGE 6

2 3 4 5

AGE 7

1 2 4 5 7 8

AGE 8

1 3AGE 9

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

AGE 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

AGE 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

AGE 2

AGE 3

1 2 3

AGE 4

2 4 5 6 8 9

AGE 5

1 2

AGE 6

2 3 4 5

AGE 7

1 2 4 5 7 8

AGE 8

1 3AGE 9

1 2 3 4 5

1st January 31st December 31st December

1st January 1st January31st DecemberAttritions Transition Recruitment

2001 2001 2001

2001 2002 2002

RECRUITMENT


Capacity Rules


SURVEY OF BEHAVIOUR RULES IN TEMAS1 Reaction to technical management measures

2 Reaction to non-technical management measures

3 Reaction to costs and prices.

4 Reaction to the range and equipment of vessels.

5 Reaction to availability of resources

Trip-Related Behaviour short term

Structure-Related Behaviour long term

Reaction of fisheries advisers (ICES).


CHOICE COMPOSED OF TRADITION and CURRENT SITUATION

General behaviour model: Random Utility Model

Estimation procedure: General Logit model.

Example of behaviour rule: Where to fish ?


E.g. quota management and effort management

BpaBlim

Fpa

Fishing mortality

Spawning stock biomass

HARVESTCONTROL RULE

(Ulrich et al. 2002)


VPA:

Ny-2

VPA:

Ny-1

FO R :

Ny

PR ESEN C E

PA

ST

FO R :

Ny+1

FO R :

Ny+2

SIM :

Ny+2

SIM :

Cy+2

SIM :

Ny+1

SIM :

Cy+1TAC y+1

TAC y+2

Ey+1

quota

Ey+2

quota

Fy+1

Fy+2

CATCH QUOTA

CATCH QUOTA

EFFORTQUOTA

EFFORTQUOTA

SIM :

Ny

SIM :

Cy

SIM :

Ny-1

SIM :

Cy-1

SIM :

Ny-2

SIM :

Cy-2

VPA/FORECAST(changed every year by ICES)

SIMULATION(NOT changed every year)

HCR y+1FU

TU

RE

HCR y

input toVPA

input toVPA

e

e

e

ecosystem /recru itm ent

e

e

ee

e

IC E SA S S E S S -

M E N T

IC E SA S S E S S -

M E N T

C A TC H -A B IL ITY

C A TC HQ U O TA

"H C R " = H arvestC ontro l R ule of

IC ES

e = S tochastic term

ecosystem /recru itm ent


Comparison of profit distributions in year 1993

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

(Arbitrary scale)

Quota regulation

Effort regulation


THE END

an excel-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast. per sparre

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