An exploratory analysis of An exploratory analysis of climate impacts on climate impacts on

Washington steelhead Washington steelhead productivityproductivity

An exploratory analysis of An exploratory analysis of climate impacts on climate impacts on

Washington steelhead Washington steelhead productivityproductivity

Nate Mantua Nate Mantua

University of Washington University of Washington

Climate Impacts GroupClimate Impacts Group

Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission Pacific Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission Pacific Coast Steelhead MeetingCoast Steelhead Meeting

March 7-9, 2006 Fort Worden, WAMarch 7-9, 2006 Fort Worden, WA

Nate Mantua Nate Mantua

University of Washington University of Washington

Climate Impacts GroupClimate Impacts Group

Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission Pacific Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission Pacific Coast Steelhead MeetingCoast Steelhead Meeting

March 7-9, 2006 Fort Worden, WAMarch 7-9, 2006 Fort Worden, WA

Analysis Analysis

Compare steelhead environment Compare steelhead environment for “best” and for “best” and “worst”productivity periods from “worst”productivity periods from select populations select populations

Use daily streamflow, ocean Use daily streamflow, ocean temperatures, and upwelling temperatures, and upwelling indices during key periods of indices during key periods of steelhead lifecyclesteelhead lifecycle

Compare steelhead environment Compare steelhead environment for “best” and for “best” and “worst”productivity periods from “worst”productivity periods from select populations select populations

Use daily streamflow, ocean Use daily streamflow, ocean temperatures, and upwelling temperatures, and upwelling indices during key periods of indices during key periods of steelhead lifecyclesteelhead lifecycle

DataDataDataData

WDFW steelhead data WDFW steelhead data Estimate recruits-per-spawner (R/S) Estimate recruits-per-spawner (R/S)

indices from WDFW run-reconstructions by indices from WDFW run-reconstructions by assuming a fixed age-structureassuming a fixed age-structure

Hatchery smolt-to-adult return rates Hatchery smolt-to-adult return rates (SARs)(SARs)

Environmental dataEnvironmental data Daily streamflow from USGS gagesDaily streamflow from USGS gages Sea surface temperatures: time series Sea surface temperatures: time series

from select locations + maps from ship-from select locations + maps from ship-buoy-satellite databuoy-satellite data

Annual spring transition datesAnnual spring transition dates

WDFW steelhead data WDFW steelhead data Estimate recruits-per-spawner (R/S) Estimate recruits-per-spawner (R/S)

indices from WDFW run-reconstructions by indices from WDFW run-reconstructions by assuming a fixed age-structureassuming a fixed age-structure

Hatchery smolt-to-adult return rates Hatchery smolt-to-adult return rates (SARs)(SARs)

Environmental dataEnvironmental data Daily streamflow from USGS gagesDaily streamflow from USGS gages Sea surface temperatures: time series Sea surface temperatures: time series

from select locations + maps from ship-from select locations + maps from ship-buoy-satellite databuoy-satellite data

Annual spring transition datesAnnual spring transition dates

Populations discussed in Populations discussed in this talkthis talk

Skagit R. wild WSHSkagit R. wild WSH

Chehalis R. WSHChehalis R. WSH(hatchery and wild)(hatchery and wild)

Kalama R. WSHKalama R. WSH(hatchery and wild)(hatchery and wild)

Green R. Green R. hatchery WSHhatchery WSH

Quileute R. Quileute R. wild WSHwild WSH

Wenatchee R. Wenatchee R. Wild SSHWild SSH

Yakima R. Yakima R. Wild SSHWild SSH

Wenatchee R. SSH run-size and

R/S

Wenatchee R. SSH run-size and

R/S The Wenatchee R.

summer steelhead declined dramatically in the 1960s-70s, rebounded in early 1980s, down in the 1990s, and sharply increased in 1999-2001

The Wenatchee R. summer steelhead declined dramatically in the 1960s-70s, rebounded in early 1980s, down in the 1990s, and sharply increased in 1999-2001

Wenatchee R. water year flow anomalies: (1971-2000

averages)

Wenatchee R. water year flow anomalies: (1971-2000

averages)

Sta

nd

ard

ized

an

omal

ies

Population and productivity trends for

Yakima R. are similar to those

for Wenatchee R.

Population and productivity trends for

Yakima R. are similar to those

for Wenatchee R. What’s driving

these fluctuations?

Was it the ocean? Streamflow? Both? Neither?

What’s driving these fluctuations?

Was it the ocean? Streamflow? Both? Neither?

Annual Run-SizesAnnual Run-Sizes

Annual R/S

Age .0 (post-smolt) cpueAge .0 (post-smolt) cpue

(from Burgner et al 1992, INPFC)(from Burgner et al 1992, INPFC)

Nearshore SSTs during Wenatchee summer-run ages 3

and 4

Nearshore SSTs during Wenatchee summer-run ages 3

and 4

There is a weak tendency for 1st spring/summer SSTs to be warm during best S/R years, and cool during the worst S/R years

This is also true in 1st and 2nd winter at sea

There is a weak tendency for 1st spring/summer SSTs to be warm during best S/R years, and cool during the worst S/R years

This is also true in 1st and 2nd winter at sea

Smolt migrationSmolt migration

3rd year3rd year 4th year4th year

Seasonal temperature and all-ages steelhead distribution patterns

(after Burgner et al 1992, INPFC)

Seasonal temperature and all-ages steelhead distribution patterns

(after Burgner et al 1992, INPFC)

April-May-JuneApril-May-June July-August-SeptemberJuly-August-September

October-November-DecemberOctober-November-DecemberJanuary-February-MarchJanuary-February-March

Spring/Summer smolt-year SST and Wenatchee R. SSH R/S

extremes

Spring/Summer smolt-year SST and Wenatchee R. SSH R/S

extremes19801980 19811981 19821982 19841984 19981998

19711971 19721972 19871987 19891989 19911991

fall/winter smolt-year SST and Wenatchee R. SSH R/S

extremes

fall/winter smolt-year SST and Wenatchee R. SSH R/S

extremes80-8180-81 81-8281-82 82-8382-83 84-8584-85 98-9998-99

71-7271-72 72-7372-73 87-8887-88 89-9089-90 91-9291-92

SW WA SW WA hatchery hatchery

steelhead SARssteelhead SARs

SW WA SW WA hatchery hatchery

steelhead SARssteelhead SARs Kalama and Chehalis

R. hatchery winter-run SARs are similar

warm spring-summer SSTs have no high values

latest spring transition dates have low SAR rates

Kalama and Chehalis R. hatchery winter-run SARs are similar

warm spring-summer SSTs have no high values

latest spring transition dates have low SAR rates

April 1stApril 1st

Spring/Summer smolt-year SST and Chehalis hatchery

SAR extremes

Spring/Summer smolt-year SST and Chehalis hatchery

SAR extremes19831983 19841984 20002000 20012001 20022002

19821982 19891989 19931993 19961996 19971997

Green R. Hatchery

SARs

Green R. Hatchery

SARs Green R. hatchery

winter-run SARs show a prolonged downward slide

tendency for the warmest spring-summer SSTs to have only low values

Weak tendency for late spring transition dates to have low values

Green R. hatchery winter-run SARs show a prolonged downward slide

tendency for the warmest spring-summer SSTs to have only low values

Weak tendency for late spring transition dates to have low values

April 1stApril 1st

Quileute R. wild winter-

runs

Quileute R. wild winter-

runs Peak run-sizes from

1995-2001, lows from 1994-2003

R/S highest from 1991-94 during period of relatively low escapements

Peak run-sizes from 1995-2001, lows from 1994-2003

R/S highest from 1991-94 during period of relatively low escapements

Nearshore SSTs during Quileute winter-run ages 3 and 4

There is a weak tendency for 1st spring/summer SSTs to be warm during best S/R years, and cool during the worst S/R years This is also true in 2nd summer at sea

Smolt migrationSmolt migration

3rd year3rd year 4th year4th year

Skagit R. wild winter-

runs

Skagit R. wild winter-

runs Peak run-sizes from

1985-1990, lows from 1978-1981 and 1991-1998

R/S highest from 1978-84 during period of relatively low escapements

Peak run-sizes from 1985-1990, lows from 1978-1981 and 1991-1998

R/S highest from 1978-84 during period of relatively low escapements

Skagit winter-run age 0-2 streamflow and age 2-4 nearshore SSTs

weak tendency for high summer flows in emergence year of high R/S year, and high winter flows for low R/S yearsweak tendency for SSTs to be warm during best S/R years

Smolt migration

1st year1st year 2nd year2nd year

3rd year3rd year 4th year4th year

Preliminary summaryPreliminary summary To date, this exploratory analysis finds no

prominent patterns of environmental links with productivity confounded with density dependence related

to varying escapements?

Weak tendencies for high wild fish productivity (and low hatchery fish SARs) with warm spring-summer SST during smolt migration year

There are many more exploration and analysis opportunities with these data!

To date, this exploratory analysis finds no prominent patterns of environmental links with productivity confounded with density dependence related

to varying escapements?

Weak tendencies for high wild fish productivity (and low hatchery fish SARs) with warm spring-summer SST during smolt migration year

There are many more exploration and analysis opportunities with these data!

acknowledgementsacknowledgements thanks to the many WDFW and Tribal staff

who have conducted spawner surveys over the past 30 years so that this rich run-reconstruction data set exists

Bill Gill from WDFW provided run-reconstruction data sets and advice

Curt Kraemer provided Green River hatchery SARs

Nick Gayeski for providing Skagit R. run-reconstruction data

Funding for this research has been provided by NOAA’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments program as part of NOAA’s Climate Office

thanks to the many WDFW and Tribal staff who have conducted spawner surveys over the past 30 years so that this rich run-reconstruction data set exists

Bill Gill from WDFW provided run-reconstruction data sets and advice

Curt Kraemer provided Green River hatchery SARs

Nick Gayeski for providing Skagit R. run-reconstruction data

Funding for this research has been provided by NOAA’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments program as part of NOAA’s Climate Office

Catch per angler day as an index of abundance for BC wild

steelhead

Catch per angler day as an index of abundance for BC wild

steelhead

Smith and Ward, 2000, CJFAS

Queen Charlotte Is.

West Coast VIEast Coast VI

Lower Mainland

• regional patterns suggest common environmental influences• yearly changes in CpAD modestly correlated with yearly changes in coastal upwelling (summer) and downwelling (winter) winds 2 year prior to catch data (typical year of smolt migration) …

Smolt-to-adult (marine) survival: Keough River,

Vancouver Island

Smolt-to-adult (marine) survival: Keough River,

Vancouver Island

Smith and Ward 2000, CJFAS

spring/summer SST during BC’s good 80s and poor 60s-70s

spring/summer SST during BC’s good 80s and poor 60s-70s

Low CpAD era: 1966-79Low CpAD era: 1966-79 High CpAD era: 1981-89High CpAD era: 1981-89

A weak tendency for higher CpAD when spring/summer SSTs near average.