Well, I’m back from the island where the sun wasshining, to the Ireland where the water freely

flows from the skies. In the interim, the footy seasonhas kicked off, so I thought I’d focus in on enhancedbets and how you can profit from shocks! It’s a greattrading method, and offers you an idea how you cananticipate possible price moves, unlike those affiliateebooks which simply don’t tell the truth. Fancy a shortpriced fav? Well, look for the all red signs!

Martin Blakey gives an insight into how he readshandicaps, the Patriarch has got the swear jar out afterthe Racing Post decided to charge for online content,and he’s showing us another site which is free andpotentially profitable.

There’s a guide to my new footy blog and how,hopefully, throughout this season you can learn the best techniques to profit, and the systems on themarket to avoid.

Catch up on the one a day experiment – as myshowbiz pal Frank Carson would say “it’s a cracker”and, in this War and Peace sized newsletter this month,I also expose the lies and misleading tactics to part youfrom your cash. Enjoy

The Patriarch Presents...

Can Adrian MasseyProvide Us With ADecent FREE AlternativeTo The Racing Post?

Here we are back after the summer break, and as faras this racing fan is concerned we’re back to face

what Terry Pratchett (in an altogether different situation)called an “embuggerance”, or a very annoying situationor nuisance. I’m talking about the Racing Post’sdecision last month to start charging for Internetaccessto information that was formerly freely available. Iknow that the basic membership cost is only £7.50 permonth with additional service charges going up to£19.95 a month, but it’s enough to make me think of adifferent approach to systems.

I’m looking for something that is Racing Post –proof, recession – proof that will still be available freeof charge, and that’s what my first system this month isall about. There are lots of very good free services stillto be had on the internet, so with Racing Post nowcharging we’ll have to make more use of them. One ofthe best, and the one I’m using with this system iswww.adrianmassey.com and it really is a marvelloussite. It has a wealth of statistical information that I maycome back to in a later piece, but for the moment it isthe Massey ratings that interest me.

They are computer generated by a program that he’sbeen working on for around 10 years (he’s a computerprogrammer by profession). The program analyses everyhorse’s previous performance, gives it a rating for thatperformance and these ratings are then used to generatea rating for the current race. So, the present rating isentirely based on these previous performances, and theconditions of the present race – distance, weight, draw,etc. The ratings are supplied entirely free of charge, butMassey naturally keeps his program secret, and it is notfor sale. Not all meetings are covered, though most are,and finally, when you find the relevant ratings page onyour screen, the ratings themselves are in a column onthe right-hand side with the highest at the top going

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What Really Wins MoneyAn independent review of tipsters and betting systems

August 2009

IN THIS ISSUE:Betting Strategies: Fancy a Short PricedFavourite? Look for this Simple Red Signal .......2Scam Alert!: Beware Misleading Past Performance Claims... ..................................5Compounding Update: Have We Managed toSustain Growth Over June and August? ..............7FOOTBALL SYSTEMS REVIEWS ...................8Betting Strategies: 42 Winners in a Row! So Should You Be Looking At The ‘Kelly’Staking Plan? .....................................................10Betting Strategies: How To ‘Steal’ Quick Profits From Shock Results ...............................12Betting Strategies: How to Strike Handicap Gold ...................................................16Clive’s Rant: The Trading Truths TheyDon’t Want You To Know ..................................19SYSTEMS AND TIPSTERS UPDATE .............20

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down to the lowest at the bottom for each race.

So, how do we make good use of these ratings? Notby indiscriminate backing of all those top-rated, that’sfor sure. You might care to specialize by concentratingon non-handicaps only, or on handicaps if you’re braver,or on certain courses, or whatever. But here is my ideabased on Massey’s own advice. He pinpoints certain ofthese top-rated horses by awarding stars as bettingpropositions, from one star to a maximum of five. Thosewith five stars are certainly worth considering. And I’dalso look at the points difference between the top-ratedand the next best – obviously, the bigger the gap thebetter the chance of the top-rated. And then there issomething else in addition to the ratings and the stars.There is a column on the left-hand side of the ratingscolumn with the heading “Max”, and that is veryimportant for my approach as I’ll now explain.

Listed there are the highest ratings ever achieved byeach horse in their previous races, and to me this israther important and plays a big part in my system.Here’s why. Let’s say I have a top-rated selection thathas been awarded five stars by Massey. I now check the“Max” column and find that another horse, or morethan one, has a higher best performance. That raises thedoubt in my mind that if it repeats that bestperformance then it will beat my selection. So, no bet.Let’s see then what I’m going to bet on.

Look at the ratings, look for a five-star selection,consult the ‘Max’ column and if your five-star selectionalso has the clear best performance figure of all therunners then we have a bet. I was writing these notes onthe 14th of July and I can hardly believe the resultsachieved that day. First of all there were four horses thatqualified for a bet (that is more than usual for a day.

The following day saw none), and of the four wehad three winners and a second. The first winner wasonly 8-11, but the next two, both at Brighton in the3.30 and 4.00 were Mick Is Back at 5-1 and Joss Stickat 6-1. Clearly we can’t expect results like that everyday, but it was just a random day, not one hand-pickedby me to boost the system.

Should you wish for more selections than areprovided by these rules you might care to consider this.Look at four-star selections and if these are at least 25points clear of the second rated and again are clear bestin the “Max” column, then they are worth a bet.

Something else occurred to me that day, the 14th ofJuly, as I was sitting there at the computer, and this

may be of interest to those of you with a laying, ratherthan a backing turn of mind. In the 3.00 at Brightonthere was a top-rated selection with five stars calledSatwa Street, quite heavily backed into 5-4 favourite.But when I looked at the “Max” column one horse hadan equal best performance, and two had a much betterbest performance. I took heed of the warning and laidSatwa Street since it was at so short a price. Theoutcome? Satwa Street was beaten and the horse thatwon was Highland Harvest at 15-2, the horse with thevery best past performance. I’ll leave it there thismonth, but perhaps there is something to be learnedfrom that example which could provide the basis for alaying system.

P.S. I’ve just noticed that on the 16th of July therewere two four-star selections, clear by 25 points ormore and clear best. One was second at 7-2 and theother won at 3-1.

Since writing the above I’ve been keeping tabs onthe idea and I have to say that I haven’t experienced asgood a day as the 14th of July. However, there havebeen lots of selections placed, often at big odds, andI’m now considering playing safe and backing themplace only when the odds permit.

Betting Strategies

Fancy a Short PricedFavourite? Look for thisSimple Red Signal

Here’s a little technique I have been using for sometime to help me make my betting decisions (albeit

specifically for place only betting) and something youcan implement immediately.

Here’s what you do:

Go to http://thebettingsite.racingpost.co.uk.

Go through the day’s races in time order.

Make specific notes of all races where thefavourite’s price is RED across the board.

Simple as that – on th next pages are someexamples to show the potential of highlighting fanciedfavourites (Fig 1).

Look at Walamo here. This horse is all red acrossthe board (in black and white here so email me if youwant to see the real screenshots). How do I interpret

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Fig 1

Fig 2

Fig 3

Fig 4

Indicates Red

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this? Well, all of the bookmakers are ALL shorteningthis horse’s price simultaneously. (At this website, redindicates a horse whose price is shortening and blueindicates a horse whose price is drifting.)

Now using this method, we are focusing ONLY onfavourites here (horses at the top of the market) and weONLY want to see these favourites whose odds areALL RED.

Here’s another example on the same day (Fig 2):

Again, you will not be able to see the red in fullcolour, but I’ve labelled it. Apart from the 4/6 and 4/5,all of the bookmakers are shortening Azmeel to 8/13.

This horse meets the criteria as he is the favouriteand is ALL RED (Fig 3):

Here is the result for these two races – both horseswon their races which is great. Now for me, personally,I use these ALL REDS to signal horses with potentialto run well , which is ideal for place only betting

Trading in running – eg we can back a horse prerace and look to trade out of that horse at shorter oddsin running, if, as expected, that horse runs well (if ahorse is running well, then its price is going to shortenin running).

Here’s one more example from the same day (Fig 4).

Here, Moonline Dancer is 11/8 and ALL REDthroughout (6/5 with bluequare) (Fig 5).

Moonline Dancer is also the favourite so meets thecriteria.(Fig 6).

Moonline dancer wins (Fig 7).

Bottom LineThis little strategy has proven to be effective when

we focus on market leaders only.

Imagine, we have a fancied horse (obvious becausethat horse is favourite).

Now all of the bookmakers highlighted aresimultaneously shortening that favourite’s price. Theremust be something in this consensus surely?

From the above, you can see there may besomething. This little method is great for me and myplace betting exploits and can even serve as a usefulhorse racing trading strategy, where we back a horseBEFORE the race goes off, and trade out at a lowerprice in running, if, as expected, the ALL RED horseruns as the punters (who have made it favourite) andthe bookmakers (who have all shortened that favouritesprice) expect.

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Fig 5 Fig 7

Fig 6

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Scam Alert!

Beware Misleading PastPerformance Claims...

They’ll go to any length to get your cash from you,and now lies, lies, lies are the order of the day.

AD Associates MisleadReaders of the eletter will already be aware of this

scam from AD Associates who have previously scuffledwith the Advertising Standards Authority (ASA).

Well, they have plumbed new depths in their attemptto con you out of £297 for their Bill Harris System.

As a number of readers of the newsletter do notread the eletter, I thought I would recount the ADAssociates article I did for the eletter here, and add anupdate regarding ANOTHER new tipster who seems tobe using AD Associates’ misrepresentation of results.

No doubt many of you will have received what can only be described as a thoroughly professionalmailing piece from AD Associates regarding the BillHarris system which will make you £3,000 in cash in31 days guaranteed!

This really is a superb example which shows thetricks the professionals use to part you from yourmoney, including

- Selective memory loss – you know they NEVERmention any losses.

- Focus on one month’s performance ONLY – how onearth can you judge a system by ONE MONTH’SSOLITARY PERFORMANCE? (You’ll know whyafter you see the next month’s results!)

- Making 100% guarantees, which in this bettingworld, is a SIMPLE LIE and marketing speak.

And much, much more.

I draw your attention to the following website:

http://www.racing-index.com/bill-harris-racing-system.html

This exposes the whole AD Associates mailing forthe sham it is.

Firstly this is NOT a new betting system, they aremerely remarketing an existing system, which by theirown proofed results, is not profiting, much less making£3K a month consistently as their mailing piece wouldhave us believe.

Yes, in one month they made the profits that wereclaimed, BUT that was not sustainable. Look at thewebsite above and, if they had told you about May toJune, and not just April to May, then, well, you’d haveat least found some very nice lining for the cat litter tray.

NO WONDER they only want you to look at Apriland May’s profits! Because they would not have sold abean had they let you focus on the rest of the results.

Misleading – You Betcha!NOWHERE within their recent mailing have they

mentioned the £4,176 loss in the last eight weeks – allthey have reiterated is the £3,480 profit between Apriland May, and if you read the website, you will knowthis is even dubious based upon claimed £20 stakes.

These guys have tussled with the ASA before, sothey are seasoned professionals!

Please, please, please do not fall for AD Associates.I have mentioned them many times – this is not apersonal vendetta at all. The ASA have even broughtthem to book. My previous focus, over many years,has been on customers’ inability to ever get refundsfrom them.

So please don’t be one of the lucky 35 (YIKES! –another marketing trick).

Now the marketing piece is exceptional, and forthose of you who want to know how to writemarketing copy that is very persuasive, and wellformatted, just keep the AD Associates Bill Harrismarketing piece and duplicate its wording andconstruction (of course tell the truth yourselves!!).

What Can I Learn From This?Well the first clue was the very fact that they

focused on ONE MONTH ONLY as the basis of theirresults for this system. ONE MONTH ONLY!

This is a standard tactic within the premium ratephone industry as I have recounted previously – focuson a biggish priced winner that was picked a couple ofdays ago (and make sure you don’t mention thecatastrophic losses of the last two days!!).

The second clue was the company – I already knowabout AD Associates and their penchant, for, let’s say,exaggerating the profit potential of their products.Further, I know their reputation as a company who donot honour refunds.

This was all I needed, but obviously from the

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emails I have received, the marketing piece was hugelypersuasive and enticing to many, BUT you shouldknow by now that you cannot realistically takeanything at face value.

The lesson learned from the AD Associates mailingshould really waken you to the fact that any tipster andbetting system mailing piece can be as persuasive ascan be, but it is ultimately up to you to find anypotential flaws (to reiterate with the above – onemonth’s results only was the flaw).

So any other offer you might receive from hereon inmust be viewed with scepticism until ultimately youare satisfied. Key areas to look out for

- 100% guarantees of future profits – it’s just notrealistic or possible

- Results that seem too good to be true – THEY ARE!

- The hint of an accommodation address – they can getaway sharpish!

- NO verifiable results over a sustained period of time –and I mean a SUSTAINED period of time, and, if ahorse racing system, preferably using a results proofingsite where we personally can verify the results.

What Can You Do – Google It!Yes, the great thing about being the first is that

there are many, many copy cats. What Really WinsMoney was the first, and the Internet has seen otherswho have sprung up.

This is great news for the punter and bad news forAD Associates and their ilk. In the case of the BillHarris system, here are the key words you could google:

- bill harris racing index proofing

- ad associates scam

- bill harris scam

- bill harris/ad associates review

If you use the words “scam” and “review” googlewill bring up forum chats and the like and hopefullyyou will strike gold and be exposed to the truth about aspecific betting system.

A Carbon Copy Of The Above...Yes, no doubt you will have been bombarded by

this service http://www.thehorseracingtipster.com.

Well, you get the usual follow-up emails – thistipster is banned by all online bookmakers apparently –

well you would be if you posted screenshots winning£40 and staking £7.50 on your tips – this guy is BIGLEAGUE I tells yer!

Well, the good news is that you can follow thistipster, who is apparently called “Winning Form”, at thiswebsite www.tippingleague.co.uk by simply registeringand checking how they perform under League Tables –so there’s no hiding place for this tipster.

Look at their long-term performance and it makesinteresting reading. Reminds me so much of the ADAssociates scam where they only showed one monthwhere the system profited, but if you looked into itfurther, you’d see the tips were appalling. This lookslike another dodgy one, I’m afraid, at first glance –August’s bumper profits are, erm -7.43 points to SPand -3.42 to Betfair prices (I don’t recall the Betfairscreenshots showing this loss in August atwww.thehorseracingtipster.com) Be careful with thisone, because they may use Betfair prices to bump upthe profit figures.

Affiliate Systems And Tipsters Are HereTo Benefit Sellers, Not Buyers

The affiliate business model that you are so familiarwith, I’m sure, has been proven over time to benefitthose who sell the products rather than those who buy.

Take another look at www.thehorseracingtipster.comand you can see that these people have this form ofmarketing down to a T, apart from telling ALL of thetruth about the performance of their products.(Thankfully they gave us a clue in this case viawww.tippingleague.co.uk.)

This is a continuous problem for reviewers ofbetting systems, because the websites are identical, themarketing language used is, of course, full ofemotional triggers and the claims made are, frankly,over the top, misleading and unrealistic.

The real reason for these services is to market youfurther poor quality fare at the same £37 price tag.

And they do this by pretending that the service isfully prescribed.

This month alone has seen a multitude of £37products released, one after the other, and surely it istime to say “NO!” to these affiliate marketers.

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Bottom LineIf it sounds too good to be true, then it is (there’s no

“probably” about it.)

Do leopards ever change their spots? Do peoplewho have sold you crap eBook after crap eBook for 3+years suddenly start producing quality – I think not!

This is but one technique used to part you fromyour cash, and to charge £297, as AD Associates did, is shocking.

There are no excuses any more to get ripped off.Don’t let greed blind you and cloud your decisionmaking. DO NOT fall for the time pressure tactics (upin price Midnight – last few then we close the doorsblah, blah, blah) – realize that you will not becatapulted into Ferraris and villas in France off theback of a £37 eBook which is sold by affiliates – youwon’t! Their wares did not produce what they claimedthen, so why on earth do you think they will now?

SCREENSHOTS are not proof of income.

TESTIMONIALS on certain of these affiliate salespages are actually provided by affiliates OR MADE UP!

PROFIT CLAIMS are unprovable. For example, ascreenshot of £40 profit for the horse racing tipster issupposed to make us believe this guy is the best horseracing tipster out there? (His proofed results over timetell me he is misleading us.)

AFFILIATE EMAILS telling us this is the next bigthing are simply scripted and come from people whohave not tried out the product, much less read it. Whatthey have read is the 50% on each sale that they get!

So, hold your horses from now on, and don’t fall forthese tactics. Eventually, the cream will rise to the top andthose systems which actually work will have longevity.

Compounding Update

Have We Managed toSustain Growth OverJune and August?

Ileft you in June with the betting bank £2,902.85compounding 2% of that betting bank each day. Has

this growth been sustained, in the real world, fromJune to August using REAL selections in the placeonly market predominantly?

16th June 2009 Betting Bank £2902.85

Date Odds Target Stake w/l New Bank17/6 1.12 £58.05 £510 w £2,960.9118/6 1.15 £59.22 £415 w £3,020.1319/6 1.13 £60.40 £489 w £3,080.5320/6 1.30 £61.61 £217 w £3,142.1421/6 1.29 £62.84 £228 w £3,204.9822/6 no bet23/6 1.19 £64.10 £355 w £3,269.9124/6 no bet25/6 no bet26/6 no bet27/6 no bet28/6 no bet29/6 1.16 £65.40 £430 l £2,839.9130/6 1.12 £56.79 £498 w £2,897.711/7 1.27 £57.93 £226 w £2,955.64 2/7 1.10 £59.11 £622 w £3,014.753/7 1.10 £60.29 £634 w £3,075.054/7 no bet5/7 no bet6/7 1.14 £61.50 £462 w £3,136.557/7 no bet8/7 1.16 £62.73 £412 w £3,199.28 9/7 1.08 £63.99 £840 w £3,263.27 10/7 1.23 £65.27 £299 w £3,328.54 11/7 1.22 £66.57 £319 w £3,395.1112/7 no bet13/7 1.1 £67.90 £714 w £3,463.0114/7 1.19 £69.26 £384 w £3,532.2715/ 1.15 £70.65 £496 w £3,602.9216/7 1.07 £72.06 £1083 w £3,674.9817/7 1.30 £73.50 £258 w £3,748.4818/7 1.12 £74.96 £625 w £3,823.4519/7 1.31 £76.47 £260 w £3,90020/7 1.09 £78 £911 w £3,97821/7 1.15 £79.56 £558 w £4,057.5622/7 1.15 £81.15 £569 w £4,138.7123/7 1.13 £82.77 £670 w £4,221.4824/7 1.08 £84.43 £1110 w £4,305.9125/7 1.17 £86.12 £533 w £4,392.0126/7 1.13 £87.84 £711 w £4,479.8527/7 1.23 £89.60 £410 w £4,569.4528/7 1.14 £91.39 £687 w £4,660.8429/7 1.12 £93.22 £817 w £4,754.0630/7 1.1 £95.08 £833 w £4,849.14

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31/7 1.11 £96.98 £537 w £4,946.121/8 no bet2/8 no bet3/8 1.15 £98.92 £694 w £5,045.044/8 1.14 £100.90 £758 w £5,145.945/8 1.05 odds are far too short to get involved6/8 1.14 £102.92 £773 w £5,248.867/8 1.27 £104.98 £409 w £5,533.848/8 1.3 £110.68 £388 w £5,644.529/8 1.1 £112.89 £1187 w £5,757.4110/8 1.11 £115.15 £1101 w £5,872.5611/8 1.09 £117.45 £1373 w £5,99012/8 1.11 £119.80 £1145 w £6,109.8013/8 1.14 £122.20 £918 w £6,23214/8 1.17 £124.64 £771 w £6,356.6415/8 1.18 £127.13 £743 w £6,483.7716/8 1.22 £129.68 £620 w £6,613.45

A bit of catching up to do with no update in July.

The compounding has really taken effect, helped inno small part by a 100% record since 29th June 2009.

Rather than straight bets on place only horses, I haveused a variety of different bets in different markets.

17th June. Here my official blog bet failed BUT Ireacted to an earlier opportunity – a reaction to nonrunners in a specific race.

18th June – I chose a half-time/full-time dutch here.

23rd June – I chose to back Andy Murray to win 3-0 at odds of 1.30. The odds reduced to 1.10 to lay afterAndy Murray went 4 games to 3 up in the first set andI traded out for a profit, EVEN THOUGH THE 3-0WAS A LOSING BET!!

8th July – I dutched three horses in one race for anequivalent 1.16 bet and it obliged.

11th July – I chose the USA to beat Haiti. The USAwent into the lead; the match was in running, so Itraded out after the first goal. USA AND HAITIEVENTUALLY DREW.

23rd July – I backed a horse in the WIN market at1.20 and traded out at 1.07 for an equivalent 1.13 bet.

28th July – I laid Accrington Stanley in a friendlymatch which was the equivalent of a 1.14 back bet.

4th August – I chose to back over 1.5 goals in acertain game, and traded out after a goal had been scored.

9th August – I backed Kilkenny in the HurlingSemi Final at 1.10.

As you can see, the goal is primarily to find ONEBET A DAY, regardless of sport.

This goal has superseded the need to use place onlybetting when there are, in my opinion, betteropportunities to be found elsewhere.

As you can see with the compounding above, thestakes fluctuate to uncomfortable levels as the stakesdecrease, which is why I have preferred, as the monthshave progressed with this one-a-day experiment, levelstakes backing of selections primarily.

I showed you in June’s WRWM how level stakes as well as the Safebetplan proved to be well worthfollowing.

Let’s look at a couple more staking plans whichoffer far greater scope for profit than the twomentioned above, and which feature as part of theStaking Machine staking software.

These staking plans are featured in the article onKELLY STAKING.

FOOTBALL SYSTEMS REVIEWSWWW.SOCCERBETTINGMONEYMAKER.BLOGSPOT.COM

It does exactly what it says on the, erm, blog address.

The football season is upon us again and it’s time toresurrect the football blog. This season I intend to keepit updated before kick-offs whenever there are majorLeague games and also European Cup games in alltheir forms.

Here are some of the categories covered:

Laying The DrawThose of you who bought the Football Cash

Generator when it was first released (in hieroglyphics –it’s that old) will be all too familiar with Laying theDraw, but it is my contention that it can work as agood trading system, and even a straightforward bet.

I am experimenting with the following:

Limit the number of games you get involved in – Ilimit the number to three.

Look for games where there is a potential forvolatility. For example, Manchester City’s attack-ladensquad should provide goals, as should the Dutch leaguegames (a recent choice was PSV v Ajax which finished4-3 – plenty of fluctuation in the odds.)

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I limit my choices to games where the draw isunder four.

Three Home BankersInspired by Compiler Systems, here I look for at

least three home teams who I expect to win easily. Sofar I am five from five. (Yes I know, the 2nd day therewere only two home bankers!!)

This could perhaps give us scope to include thesethree home bankers in a treble?

Lay the TrebleThis was a very consistent and profitable little

system produced from the ashes of a complete failureof a system sold at www.footballcashbuilder.com.

The profits at this site are simply fabricated, and theonly way to make this a sure-fire way to profit is to dothe opposite of what the author suggests.

Here is my version of this failed backing system:

Go to www.betfair.com and their “multiples”football coupon.

Select three teams.

Two of those teams must be around 1.5 to back andone team must be 1.33 or thereabouts to back.

All teams must be playing at home.

We select the back odds for these three teams, andwe simply LAY the treble rather than back it.

The key to success? Well, the liability is quite lowfor three teams and it only takes ONE of the threeteams to NOT WIN for the multiple to be a success.

So far this season, I am two from two with my treblelays after at least one team drew and one team lost.

Personal PicksHere I select the strongest back, lay and trade bets

in all categories – be it laying or backing in the matchodds market, trading a team (for example, I fanciedSchalke recently at 1.5 only to trade after they scoredfirst), and over and under 2.5 goals bets.

I hope they will give you some idea as to theamounts of different betting opportunities that areopened up to you each footballing day.

Mug Punter AccumulatorsYes, after receiving thousands of emails clamouring

for my mug punter accas (well, OK, no emails werereceived actually about my mug punter accas); Idecided to put them in each blog entry.

The accumulators use Betfair’s Multiples and so farI have realised a 2.61 winner and lost out by a single0-0 in an eight fold accumulator. They’re a bit of funand we can actually see, over time, whether it wouldbe better to be a mug punter accumulator backer or amug punter accumulator LAYER. (I would suspect thelatter will prove the profitable way to go.)

As the season progresses too, I will be featuring anumber of systems that have been released regardingfootball.

The key factor with these systems is that themajority require a degree of form behind teams (atleast three previous matches) so watch out for thesesystems reviewed in real time with real games.

Here’s a brief synopsis of the systems I will belooking at this new football season.

The Compiler SystemFrom Daniel Soulsby, this system focuses on

sniffing out home teams with a strong chance ofwinning and backing them to win, not in trebles, but insingles. The contention here is that you will doubleyour money every 10 times you bet using the system.

Interesting, but requires a few games to have beenplayed.

OversandundersbetteingThis was a very effective strategy last season and I

will be monitoring it again this season. Available fromwww.oversandundersbettingcom, it is one of those rarethings – a Brookes book you can actually use.

What he didn’t tell you was that this eBook is veryeffective if married with trading – it is this keydistinction which should readily produce the profits

Football Laying CodeLike winners to losers et al, this laying system

focuses on the first goal odds market (and mirrorssome of the big odds to lay) and I remain unconvertedto its profit potential simply because of the odds atwhich we are laying. One losing bet and we lose up tofive previous bets’ gains.

Still, once there is form in the book, it will beinteresting to track.

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SoftwareMerlin

Available athttp://info4u2succeed.com/ecommerce/merlin, this is avery clever piece of kit for permutation betting andpurports to always cover the winning result (be that asa slight profit or a break even).

“Merlin runs in Microsoft Excel and is so easy touse. You simply enter your predictions into the InputSelector Panel from top to bottom using the symbols 1-2-X to denote, respectively, a home win or an awaywin or a draw. Hit the “Enter” key, and before you’vetime to blink Merlin performs the calculations andhighlights with one or more red arrows the column orcolumns you are to bet.”

It deserves a full trial this season to discover whetherits value is more gimmick than real profit maker.

Soccer Magic Matrix

Available at http://www.progamblingproducts.co.uk/netsales/smm/smm2.html, this is another piece ofsoftware which is a calculator for permutation betting.Highly useful in calculating stakes for you if you wantto stake a specific amount over a number ofpermutations OR if you want to win a target profitamount with each permutation.

As ever, with these calculators, they are only asgood as the information input into them!!

http://www.footballsystem.co.uk

A series of excel spreadsheets, again designed toengineer permutation bets on the fixed odds coupon.Worthy of trialling because the cost is only £19.99.

As far as I am concerned though, permutationbetting for me is a little outdated as trading in runningcan offer far greater potential and offer us a chance toreact and LOCK IN profits if things are going our way,and manage positions if things are not going our way.

TipstersWell the two tipsters I was following last season

were both poor. www.football-bets.co.uk andwww.footballmaestro.com did not perform as youwould expect of a service for which you are paying.

The former has profited over the long term, but yetagain, joiners last season would not really have gotanywhere and STILL had to fork out subscription feesfor this service. It has had a complete overhaul in the

summer and it remains to be seen whether this willperform. Expect intermittent updates on the football blog.

www.footballmaestro.com should be renamedwww.footballminiclubmanwithapieceofstringholdingtheexhauston.com. £100 to £10,000 was the triumphantclaim last season. £10K – was robbing a bank part ofthe service?

This is another overhyped affiliate type tippingservice where the selections were generally highlyobvious and the staking quite ridiculous.

One to avoid I’m afraid. I’ve really had enough ofyou-know-who and the rubbish he releases.

Bottom LineSo follow me on the blog at

www.soccerbettingmoneymaker.blogspot.com. It’llgive you some ideas and I’ll be trialling any newreleases that come along as well as looking at areas totrade football matches, as I feel it is this latter elementthat is the real key to betting success this season.

I’ll also be highlighting some free tipsters out there(at least the price is right with these!) – perhaps youcan use them as confirmers for your own opinion?)

Betting Strategies

42 Winners in a Row! SoShould You Be Looking AtThe ‘Kelly’ Staking Plan?

You have seen in the compounding article that yes,profits can be made, BUT short prices mean

increased stake.

In June’s WRWM, I discussed the use of level stakesand specialist staking via the safebet plan as a potentialprofit maker; well in this article I will be showing youa staking plan which outperforms these two steadyprofit earners by some considerable margin.

It’s Only My Friend And Yours – Kelly!!!!No alas, my publisher has not allowed me to

indulge my passions for a certain Miss Brook, I amtalking about Kelly staking.

Now, personally, I don’t want to know how Kellystaking works, suffice to say that the Kelly stakingsettings I have input on my staking machine software

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work for me in two key areas, stakes remain manageable,profits over time outperform any staking I have featuredthus far using the ONE-A-DAY philosophy.

Here’s an intro to Kelly staking from the StakingMachine which gives you an idea behind this staking plan

Kelly Staking PlanThe Kelly staking plan is based on using the ‘Kelly

Constant’. Kelly Criteria was developed in 1956 byJohn L. Kelly and the Kelly Criteria is designed tomaximize the growth of your bankroll over the longterm, by determining the optimal stake on a bet. TheKelly Criteria requires that your percentage-estimations (probabilities) are better than thebookmaker’s estimations. If you are confident that youcan determine value to be in your favour as opposed tothat of the bookie, the following Kelly Criteria formulawill tell you the optimal amount of your bank to bet.

((odds x estimation) – 1) / (odds – 1) = (result) x 100

for example:

• bank = £10.000

• your (value) estimation of the odds = 0.25 (25%)

• therefore, ((5.00 x 0.25)-1) / (5.00-1) = (0.0625) x100 = £625.00

• your bet size = £625

Yes, I’m none the wiser to be honest, but the keyfactors for me using the staking machine software(www.thestakingmachine.com ) are.

% of expected winners 94%

Divisor 2

Start Bank £1,000

It’s the results I’m interested in, using these settings

Betting Bank of £1,000 has now turned into£11487.45 and that’s using average odds of 1.19!!

The great news here is that the largest stake has been£439.07 and that was when the bank had reached £6,000+

This is encouraging for hugely maximising profitsfrom such poor odds and is something to return to oncethe year is up on these one a days (November 2009 isthe one year anniversary).

Yet again, the graph is almost 45 degrees from startto present and profits are the highest of all the staking

plans whilst still keeping stakes reasonably small inproportion to the betting bank.

Fancy Trying For £50 A Day?Can we really try to make £50 a day with such short

odds? Well, my contention is that we can simplybecause the strike rate is so high that any losing daysare easily absorbed.

Since November 2008, if you had tried to win £50 aday using the one-a-day selections, you would besitting on a betting bank of £9,620.

With a current 96.7% strike rate for one-a-daybetting, the losses that there have been (the largest hasbeen £500 when a 1.1 shot was unplaced) have beeneasily absorbed.

Largest stake has been £1,000 on a 1.05 shot, sothis form of target profit per day staking requires agood sized betting bank (if aiming for £50 – of course,you could aim for £20 a day, £25 a day or some othertarget profit which will reduce outlay).

BUT, evidence thus far shows that this is certainly amethod worth looking at in partnership with the one aday betting.

Bottom LineI am currently on a winning run of 42 and some

people may poo-poo some of the short odds, but whenlooked at over a long period, we really can make theseshort prices produce some very worthy profits for us.

Indeed. My pal Tefal Head, from Guernsey, hasthought up his own staking plan for one-a-day betting,and that is to start with a £500 betting bank and bet15% of the betting bank every day. The bank after 22days stands at £800.10 as I write, with the next stakebeing £120 (15% of £800). Compounding is increasing

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returns with each new bet.

One-A-Day Lessens The PsychologyWoes Of Coping With Losers

One of the most comforting things about this formof betting is that we are more likely to experience longwinning runs (whilst sacrificing big prices).

This suits a lot of WRWM readers (if my inbox isanything to go by) and it is my belief that even if you arenot sold on the concept of one-a-day short odds betting,you should at least consider using a separate betting bankand one-a-day betting as a form of investment-typebetting away from your other betting activities.

I am convinced (and I speak from the experience ofdoing this in the real world since November 2008,literally day in and day out!) that this form of betting issound and workable, and above all, simple and profitable.

Betting Strategies

How To ‘Steal’Quick Profits FromShock Results

Let enhanced bets be your trading companion thisfootball season.

Yes I know, as my showbiz pals Chas ‘n’ Davewould say, I’ve been rabbit, rabbit, rabbitting aboutenhanced bets to you for some time, and in this article,I want to show you ACTUAL REAL WORLDPROFITS which, unlike screenshots at websites suchas http://www.easytraderpro2.com are achievablewithout risking thousands of pounds to makeadmittedly impressive £400+ returns.

There have already been many many enhancedbetting opportunities and I have made three figureprofits on 4 occasions already, and the season has justkicked off!!

So how do I do it.

STEP 1

Shortlist Teams You Fancy Who AreGoing In Running On Betfair

Let me give you some examples:

At Betfair, you can see the list of in play footballmatches for that particular day.

Simply select those matches where you think theresult will be easily achieved. Are you reading mymind here? Man Utd v Birmingham stands out here at1.28 for Man Utd to win at Old Trafford.

So the shocks that I conceive would be Birminghamscoring first, a sending off for Man Utd, or 0-0 for asustained period of time (keeping faith all the while thatMan Utd should make the breakthrough eventually).

Fenerbahce are 1.42 to win at home and, as one of thedominators of Turkish football, I expect Fener to win.

At the odds, Dinamo Zagreb are expected to easilydispatch Osijek.

So today, these are my three games to “keep an eyeon”.

Step 2We will not be getting involved in these matches

until a potential shock shows itself.

Open up a football scoring website such ashttp://futbol24.com/f24_livenow/LiveNow.html.

This website beeps whenever a goal is scored.Alternatively, use Betfair’s own live score service andselect only those leagues you are interested in.

Profit From The Potential For A ShockI would expect a straightforward win for Man Utd,

Dinamo Zagreb and Fenerbahce here. The odds tell usso, and my own opinion tells me so. As hinted atearlier, I would be looking for either:

- a goal or two scored to no reply by the outsiders

- the strong team to have a man sent off (market willsense perceived weakness).

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- the score to remain 0-0 late into the 2nd half (themarket will perceive the strong favourite’s chances ofsuccess to be diminishing – this will be reflected intheir odds increasing as the 90 minutes nears )

- Take Chelsea, for example, against Hull on theopening day of the season.

Let me see if you can uncover why this bet is apotential enhanced bet?

Yes, Stephen Hunt scored after 28 minutes for Hull.

1-0 to Hull.

Shock On The Cards?And the Betfair market in mayhem.

At this stage of the game, Hull were 6.2 to lay.

Chelsea were 1.45 or thereabouts to back.

These are always our options as ENHANCEDBETTORS.

If the strong favourites unexpectedly go a goaldown in an IN PLAY game, we can lay the opponentswho are 1-0 up, OR back the strong favourites at farbetter odds than we could have got pre match.

To RecapWhen a shock scoreline occurs consider

- BACKING THE STRONG FAV AT BETTER ODDSNOW – better odds because the market knows thatthe strong favourites now have to score 2 goals to noreply to win

- LAYING THE OPPONENTS WHO HAVE SCOREDFIRST – this covers the draw of course and we getshorter returns but a greater likelihood of success as thestrong favourites only need to score 1 goal to equalise

As you can see, the inevitable happened. Drogbaequalized in the 37th minute. SO, if you had laid Hullat 6.2 , you could have backed Hull at 29 to end asupremely successful trade.

Soccer > Chelsea v Hull : Match Odds

Showing 1 – 2 of 2 Selections

Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£)

Hull 29.00 4.57 Back 15-Aug-09 13:27 -4.57

Hull 6.80 19.48 Lay 15-Aug-09 13:19 19.48

*Average odds: On /Off Back subtotal: -4.57

Lay subtotal: 19.48

Market subtotal: 14.91

Commission @ 4.9%: 0.73

Net Market Total: 14.1

If you had backed Chelsea at estimated 1.45, youcould have laid Chelsea at around 1.24 after theyequalized to wrap up a very successful trade.

Me? I did the trade by laying Hull initially for asmall profit as you see above. BUT I was also wearingmy reinforced underpants.

You will notice the time of Chelsea’s winner -90+minutes

I backed Chelsea at odds of 3.4 for £100 ( havingalready backed them for £500 at 1.17 pre match (I toldyou I had reinforced underpants and balls of steel!!)

Overpage is a screenshot from Fairbot which I usefor all of my Betfair activities (Fig 1)

I draw your attention to the “Matched bets” box inthe bottom right hand corner of the screenshot. Itshows a back of Chelsea at odds of 3.3 for £74.53 anda back if Chelsea at odds of 3.35 for £25.47

Bear in mind that Chelsea were priced at 1.17 towin pre match

And Here’s AnotherLokomotiv Sofia are 1.17 to win this match and

go 2-0 up as you would expect. But see how this game progresses!

Yes, in the 2nd half, the score was 2-2 and theopponents were a man down!

Now the price for Lokomotiv Sofia at this stagewas a whopping1.69 (compared to the 1.17 pre match).

This was in the 73rd minute. If we take theenhanced bet here, we have nearly 20 minutes for theoriginal 1.17 shots to score, which they almostinevitably do!!

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14

Fig 1

Fig 2

Fig 3

Fig 4

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How About Backing Spain At 7.8Against Macedonia?

No, Spain were not playing in blindfolds in thismatch (that would explain the 7.8 odds) – NO! Spainwere 1/3 shots to beat Macedonia in a recent friendly.

Again this met all of my simple rules.

I actually fancied Spain to get a result here and thegame was in running. These are the only real rules.

Let’s look at the game progression.

The key to making this an enhanced bet is what?

Yes, Macedonia are 2-0 up after 32 minutes.

Now This Is A Shock If Ever There Was One!

I backed Spain at odds of 7.8 at the beginning ofthe second half.

Let’s see what happened (Fig 2)

Spain scored and their odds plummet.

The market believes, quite rightly, that Spain have a

better chance of salvaging something in this game at 2-1 down than 2-0 down.

At this stage I can “green up” for a £24.96 profitusing Fairbot.

As my outlay was only £40 in this particular match,I did not opt to trade out here for profits (those of youwith discipline will have, of course, traded out for aprofit wouldn’t you!!!?

But, honestly, I didn’t have a chance!

1st goal in the 52nd minute.

2nd goal in the 55th minute.

3rd goal in the 56th minute.

Here’s how my betfair screen looks now (Fig 3).

£160 green screen for a £40 stake.

How often would you back the EuropeanChampions and World Cup favourites at odds of 7.8?

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Fig 6

Fig 7

Fig 8

Fig 5

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Me? ALWAYS!

And It’s Not Limited To FootballRemember, the key component to this form of

betting is the expectation in the market for a shockresult, and our exploitation of the enhanced pricesoffered by the market makers.

We all know about Roger Federer, don’t we?

You know – World Number one!

Well, recently in the Rogers Cup he was up againstTsonga. I had earlier noted Federer at 1.18 as apotential bet for my One a Day betting experiment.

So, I was surprised to see Federer at 1.66 – why?Well, Federer was a set down. It’s like Spain being 2 goals down, isn’t it.

It’s A Shock!!So I waded in.

And almost inevitably the Federer comeback began(Fig 4-8).

Yes, Federer wins the 2nd set and we are sitting ona £71 green screen here.

The reason for this bet? Federer was originally1.17, and because of his reputation, I was happy withthe slightly bigger stake here. After all, Federer wasonly beaten in a tie-breaker in the first set.

Hardly panic stations, is it?

AddendumIn this tennis match, Federer was 5-2 up in the 3rd

set, with the scores tied at one set all.

And He’s LostAs you can see from the green up, a sacrifice of £9

will ensure my stake of £126 is returned and the profitis SPREAD between both players.

So Tsonga won, and so did I!

THE POWER OF TRADING!

OTHER ENHANCED BETS?Well, the first weekend of the season saw

Galatasaray go a goal down to Denzilspor. Galatasaraywere 1.32 to win the match pre match, were playing at

home and in a game which was in play on Betfair.

FINAL SCORE -3-1

Bottom LineThere will be multiple opportunities this new

season to take advantage of what can be perceived, inthe moment, as a potential shock unravelling.

It is here that we POUNCE!

WE POUNCE AND WE PROFIT.

Keys to success:

The matches MUST be in running.

The games you shortlist must be games where youCONFIDENTLY EXPECT a certain team (or tennisplayer) to win.

This is a unique form of trading, and it is based onlogic and our inate ability now to bet while a footballmatch or tennis match is actually under way.

I’ll be collecting examples of more enhanced betsas the season progresses. Look out for potential shocksyourself, and profit.

Betting Strategies

How to Strike Handicap Gold

By Martin Blakey

Handicaps tend to put the fear of God into mostpunters, but if you do your homework, there are

some very lucrative betting opportunities to be found.It’s not easy and I have spent over 20 years getting tothe stage I am at now, where I can confidently gothrough a race and eliminate 75% of the runners toleave me with a select few from which I decide if asuitable betting opportunity is available. I have my ownway of handicapping horses which I have perfectedover the years; this involves many elements, however,there is one key factor that is essential before I evenconsider a bet, and it is this very important element thatforms the backbone of my handicap ratings.

I cannot give my strategy away for obvious reasons,but the following pointers will help you navigate yourway through some very tricky handicaps and,hopefully, put you on some nice price winners.

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• I hardly ever get involved with 3-year-old onlyhandicaps as these are still young horses, many ofwhich have probably not found their correct trip (therace distance at which they will perform best), andalso a lot of them have no suitable form history for usto make an informed decision.

• I do not consider any horse that won last time out. Thereason for this is that you are backing an exposed horsewhose form is there for all to see. I like to back horseswhose last two or three runs have indicated that a winis imminent. (see the accompanying example with ahorse called Triple Dream for a pointer regarding whatto look for in previous runs). Some horses do obviouslyfollow up wins in handicaps and run up a sequence, butyou are backing a horse with a penalty which now hasto prove it is capable of winning off its revised highermark (of course, wily trainers will run a horse in anapprentice handicap if he feels he can eek a win out ofit again, simply so the horse will be unpenalised for itsnext run in a handicap proper).

• Ideally, I look for a horse that has proved it is capableof winning off its current mark or higher. This meansyou are not asking the horse to achieve something ithas not been able to do in previous races.

• Take note of horses that have won over a different tripto what they have been running over during their lasttwo or three races. If a horse has won at six furlongs,but its most recent races have been over sevenfurlongs, then all of a sudden it is dropped back to sixfurlongs on a mark at which it has previously beensuccessful, the chances are that the trainer is expectinga big run. Often a trainer will run a horse over thewrong trip in order to get its mark down to one atwhich it has previously been successful and I havelanded some nice touches on horses that meet with thiscriteria.

• Do not read too much in to horses that appeared to beunlucky in running last time out. These types ofhorses tend to be priced up accordingly and very fewwin on their next outing.

• Do not rely too much on a horse’s last time out run; itis two or three runs ago where the real evidence of areturn to form can be exposed. This is a mistake thatmost people make when reading form, and why it iseasy to get disillusioned when you see a horse winning

easily at 10-1 when it could have been beaten out ofsight last time out.

• Always look back at betting patterns for at least the lastthree races when looking at any particular horse as thiscan give valuable clues as to what can be expected. Onits last two runs a horse may have gone off at 33-1 afterdrifting from 20-1, but three runs ago the horse washeavily backed in to 5-1 from 12-1. This tells us thatthe horse was obviously expected to run very-well andtherefore connections believe it has the ability to win.

We now have to look for clues as to why it was wellsupported then, but on its next two runs it wascompletely friendless in the market. The first thing Ilook for are the race conditions from when it was wellsupported and are they the same today. If all the cluesare positive, then watch the market for support as itslast two runs could just have been a smokescreen tohide the fact that the horse is in good form, and also togain a much bigger price about the horse.

SummaryI could go on for pages and pages about the

intricacies of handicaps, but the above pointers havestood the test of time and form the basis from which allmy work with handicaps is done. You can never stoplearning about the complexities of handicaps and allthe tricks and stunts that trainers use, but I am now in aposition where I can confidently assess a race andknow that my final ratings are very accurate and willprovide me with the profits I require to make the gamepay. I am in the process of putting a service together tomake my personal ratings available on a daily basis, bygoing to the link below, you can put your name on thepriority waiting list and you will then be notified assoon as the service is available.

http://canonburypublishing.com/handicapgold

Here, I use www.sportinglife.com and its race cardsas they offer me all of the information I require ANDSTILL FOR FREE.

The following is a real life example of what I lookfor when considering a horse as a potential bet:

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Triple Dream was a horse that interested me in thisrace, only a four year old, he had yet to win a race butwas very consistent in his last three races over fivefurlongs and the signs were there that he was ready tostrike. As you can see at the top of the screen shot, thiswas a three year old plus race. If you look at thecolumn with the heading “OR” (stands for officialrating) you can see that Triple Dream is running off ahandicap mark of 60 today. The screen shots belowexplain what led me to believe that this horse had a bigchance today.

Analysis reads “held up, good headway over 1f out,ran on to chase winner inside final furlong, alwaysheld opened15/2 touched 8/1 SP 13/2

It was his run three races ago that got me interested inthis horse as highlighted above. He was well backed from8-1 into 13-2 and ran a good race to finish 2nd, doing allhis best work inside the final furlong. This was the firstsignal that although the horse had yet to win a race, hewas sufficiently strong in the market to suggest thatconnections expected a good run. The fact that he was

running on also showed me that he had good battlingqualities and could therefore be placed to win by hisshrewd trainer who is one of the top four trainers at Bath.

I then looked closely at his run last time out wherehe was only 4th but was given far too much to do byhis jockey and was running on really strongly at thefinish. This was the 2nd time in three races that thehorse was finishing very strongly, and today he wasstepped up in trip an extra half furlong to takeadvantage of this. Running off the same handicap markof 60 today and the extra half furlong a definiteadvantage for him, he looked to have a major chanceon all the evidence available to us.

RESULT. Triple Dream. Won 5-1.

Triple Dream attracted plenty of money all day andwon the race easily at 5-1 with the extra distance provingjust what he needed to get his head in front proving thatas long as you do your homework, there are some verygood bets to be found in this type of handicap.

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Clive’s Rant

The Trading Truths TheyDon’t Want You To Know(Because then they can’t peddle theirrecycled rubbish anymore)

Take a look at websites like this one athttp://www.easytraderpro2.com and you’d be forgivenfor thinking that trading on sports at Betfair is the wayto big, big money.

Look at these screen shots:

Boy are they impressive, but what we’re NOT toldis far more important that what we are shown above

Here’s the trouble I have with screen shots likethese.

The green screen amounts (as you can see they willprofit on all outcomes) require a significant bettingbank and a considerable degree of risk in order for youto profit to the tune of £450. Of course, if you weretold at the website that you’d need a few grand in orderto realize these profits, OR that you would have to riska large sum of money in the hope that you have readthe market well, then they wouldn’t sell many of their£47 eBooks. Why? Because it shatters the illusion theyare trying to create that all of this will magically cometo you risk free for £47.

Trading involves opinion – at least in so far as themarkets shown on the website are concerned. Youactually need to formulate an opinion, take a position,and hope that you have read what is likely to happencorrectly. This differs from the horse racing marketswhere you can trade price movements.

Trades WILL go wrong, and if you are looking to

replicate these £450 green screens, then you run therisk of losing thousands of pounds. Of course, you’renot going to be told this at all.

After all, the profits are “risk free” which istechnically correct. Once you have successfullygreened up a screen you have a risk-free profit, BUTTHERE IS A RISK IN GETTING TO THATPOSITION.

The screen shots at this website prove nothing.They are highly selective. The profit of £936 in a daycould be erroneous. There is not an ounce of proof thatthis was achieved through trading, nor are we told howmuch money was put at risk in order to achieve thesealleged profits.

The correct score trade shown on the site has tohave involved OPINION – it just had to. It’s not a“system” you can follow. Here, the trader hadobviously thought that this game was heading for 1-1after one of the sides had gone a goal down.

The trader then backed his opinion by backing the1-1 draw at enhanced odds while still 1-0 (or he couldhave taken the 1-1 position prior to any goals beingscored and traded out when it occurred).

What I am getting across is that there is no A-B-Cstep to this kind of trading – it requires personal input.

Bottom Line

This is the lesson to take from this website sellingits magical trading panacea for £47.

A key factor behind all of this is the following link

Yes, affiliates earn 60%.

So can I profit from trading?

The answer is YES, YOU CAN.

Take a read of blogs likehttp://adamheathcote.blogspot.com.

Go back to the beginning and ignore his newexchange secrets trading tipping service. It sounds ill conceived. BUT you will see someone who hasbeen trading on horse racing markets predominantly(where you DO NOT need to formulate an opinion thatthis or that horse is going to win – you can actuallyfollow the money).

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It’s a good read and is free. It makes you wonderhow he does it and what amount of money he startedwith. It does show one thing and that is the importanceof bespoke software. I use Fairbot myself, AdamHeathcote uses Bet Angel professional.

If you want a quick trading idea then read theenhanced bets and all red articles. Just a couple ofideas regarding how we can ANTICIPATE a possiblefuture price movement.

And remember, if there’s anything you want toknow about trading on Betfair, well it’s all availablethrough Google. We don’t want to be encouragingthese affiliates to write some more of the bleedingobvious now do we?

SYSTEMS ANDTIPSTERS UPDATELAY TIPSTERS

www.computapik.com/lays/results/blogger.html

Results are fully available for inspection at theabove web address.

You already know my arguments regarding laysystems and tipsters. If we are laying regularly atprices of eight or above, then this is the equivalent ofbacking very very short odds on shots.

It follows, then, that the strike rate should mirrorthe kind of strike rate you should expect backing a 1/6,1/7 shot daily.

So it is with this in mind that you should look at theadvertised results of this service.

It’s key to success is something I have talked aboutat length – the one-a-day principle! Something you canreplicate yourself? It doesn’t take a genius (or the needto pay someone!) to select JUST ONE HORSE ataround 9 odds from ALL of the horse races on aparticular day, TO LOSE ITS RACE!!

www.winnerstolosers.comAgain, odds that are squeamishly high for me to

consider as part of my betting portfolio, this systemwas actually posting heavy losses as of 7th July 2009,and I ask anyone who was on the end of these losseswhether they would have continued with this system orgiven it the old heave – ho?

I would suspect they would have given up aftersuffering such big losses especially after 4 big pricedwinners in five bets.

Again, results are fully available for inspection, andif this is the case for any betting system, surely it isbetter to play a waiting game (and NOT to fall for anytime pressure tactics used with all the affiliate bettingsystem websites that we are all too familiar with). Theresults are presented as a profit year to date, but I argueagain, if you had laid horses at 10, 8.5, 7, and 6 andthey all won their races , compounded by laying 2horses at 4.5 and 10 which also won their races a weeklater and negated all profit made in the interim, youwould NOT HAVE, believe me, stuck with this systemhaving forked out £97 for it.

Fixed liability staking is perhaps the only way towork winners to losers.

Dodgy FavouritesAvailable from Sportsworld Publishing, this system

is in direct contrast to winners to losers in that,generally, the odds are short enough to actually allow£100 level stakes (and not fixed liability) to be used.

Again this is a system which is best served byfollowing the results over time (which are freelyavailable at Sportsworld Publishing’s website)BEFORE buying the system. If doing this, you wouldhave noted a 25 point loss to 28th March 2009. I askagain – if you had bought this system at year start, andexperienced this 25 point loss, would you really havecontinued using this lay system?

You would have actually broken even on 4th May 2009.

Your positivity or negativity (and indeed anyreviewer’s) is based on the time you receive andimplement the system!

www.flatlays.comHave been proofing to me since 9th June 2009, and

in that time have realised a near seven point profit butsince year start it is a 55 point profit.

The results are available for inspection at the websiteand tally exactly with the email advices I receive.

Lay services like this which are one-a-day lays areliable to long winning runs (we could hope) and itwould be this factor that should seal a profit after aconcerted period of time (like a year).

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As you can see, seven point profit for 2 months isadequate but since year start it is a lot more encouraging.

There may be some contentious selections as onerule stipulates.

“Our results total only includes selections if theselection had a price of 6.0 or less as Betfair StartingPrice as we do not recommend placing any bets abovethis level. We have placed other bets where we havematched odds at below 6.0 but where the Starting Price has been above 6.0 and these are shown in thetable in red. For example, on 29th May 2009, wematched a winning lay bet on Critical Path in the4.45pm at Goodwood at odds of 4.2. The Betfair SPwas 6.2, as such this bet is shown but not included inthe total column.”

An encouraging enough service which is simple tooperate but could stagnate for a while and then getgoing on the back of a winning run. As it is one a day,I would have expected the success rate to be far higherthan it is. After all, if you are only selecting one horsea day to lose out of the multitude, and at a price belowsix, how difficult can it be?

www.bettolose.co.ukYou already know about loss retrieval so join

services like this (especially where the loss retrieval isused for laying) at your own risk

This service seems to have an element ofconsistency about it BUT you must be aware that awipe out day can arrive at any time and severelyimpact the betting bank.

Faith then in the provider of the tips.

Bets are limited to four in a betting cycle per daywhich reduces exposure when compared with bettingcycles of five.

BACK TIPSTERS

www.thetradingplan.co.ukThe trading plan continues to be very consistent with

members taking advantage of the many different optionsavailable with the selections. Martin only put thequalifiers up on the site but many clients use the potentialqualifiers as ratings because they throw up so manywinners. Often a horse may not reach the target price asper the plan rules but still wins the race. If you follow therules strictly you would miss these, but members are nowwise to this and are taking advantage of some big priced

winners. Last week at Beverley in one particular race,none of the potential qualifiers reached their target pricebut the service still provided the 1st at 8-1 and 2nd at 12-1 so these horses are worth following as it does throw upwinners like this on a daily basis.

www.pro-info.co.ukResults are available via the website. My personal

preference with Martin Blakey would be the tradingplan as things stand. It provides more bets more often.

www.kachinaracing.co.ukNow results are fully viewable at the website which

should help in your decision making as regards which ofthe services to join, if you are happy with performance.

As things stand, the standout service is the Pay as YouWin, which has posted good profits since I last wrote.

The emails received for all services have been very well written and the information at times has beenfirst class

CURRENT TRIALED SYSTEMSThe NH Super Trend Spotter

From www.mdprofessionalsportsbetting.co.uk

I’ll end this one. Not for me at all. It’s a “faith”system where you get many many losers and just hopea winner will arrive before it’s too late.

Of course the marketing won’t tell you that youoften endure horrendous losing runs which can bedifficult to cope with.

I’ll be trying something else out I think.

www.bettertipster.co.uk

Results with latest month at the top

August –

7 bets, 3 wins, 3 seconds, 1 loss.

Total Profit: 5.21 points – 74% ROI

July -

19 bets, 7 winners, 7 placed, 2 loss,

Total Profit: 13.5 point – 71% ROI

June –

24 bets, 12 winners (including one profit trade out16/1 -> 8/1), 4 placed, 7 loss

Total Profit: 33 point, 137% ROI

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May –

14 bets, 10 winners, 2 placed, 2 loss

Total Profit: 19.8 point, 141% ROI.

Advices are received via email daily and are splitinto account bets and mentions. There seems to be afeel of genuine contacts and information, and certainlyas far as the Irish information is concerned, horsesmentioned are gambled on.

Bernard Hibbert’s Sharp End Systemwww.thechesterclub.com

Selections from year start have been as follows

Jan 1st 1st 1/6

Jan 2nd 2nd 4/6od

Jan 3rd 1st 5/6

Jan 13th 1st 2/5

Jan 17th 1st 13/8, 3rd 11/10

Jan 24th 2nd 10/11

Jan 28th 3rd 4/11

Jan 30th 3rd of 7 10/11

Jan 31st 2nd 8/11 4th 15/8

Feb 13th 1st 5/4

Feb 14th 1st 10/11, 1st 10/11

Feb 19th 1st 4/11

Feb 26th 2nd 1/3, 2nd 8/11

March 13th 1st 4/11

March 21st 1st 4/9

April 2nd 2nd 10/11

April 9th 3rd 5/6

April 17th 1st 4/9

April 18th 2nd 11/4

April 23rd 5th 6/4

April 25th 1st 15/8

April 30th Faller 13/8

May 8th 3rd 8/11

May 11th Faller evens

May 14th 2nd 2/9

May 15th 1st 8/11

May 16th 1st 5/6

May 20th faller 2/7

May 20th 1st 4/9

May 22nd 2nd 3/10

May 26th 1st 8/13

June 5th 3rd 6/4

June 16th 1st 5/6

June 17th 2nd 2/5

June 21st 1st 4/6

June 21st 2nd 10/11

June 25th 1st 6/5

June 26th 2nd 8/11

July 3rd 8th 5/6

July 17th 1st 2/5

July 20th 1st 2/7

July 22nd 1st 11/10

July 24th 1st 4/6

July 30th 1st 4/11

July 31st 2nd 8/13

Aug 2nd 1st 8/11

Aug 2nd 1st 1/4

Aug 3rd 2nd 6/5

Aug 13th 1st 8/13

Aug 13th 1st 4/11

Aug 15th 2nd 1 /2

This is still sold by the Chester Racing Club andSportsworld Publishing for £95.

“65% (down from the initially advertised 80%)STRIKE RATE, £1,000 betting bank turned into£6,600.” Not likely mate. More like a 51% strike rateand at odds which make a profit unrealisable.

I’m shelving this, it’s a complete waste of time andshould tell you a little about the vendors that arecontinuing to sell this for near £100.

What we can garner from this perhaps is that if youare going to be betting very selectively and with shortprices, you MUST have the strike rate to go with it.One would assume that if you are choosy in your bets,it follows that the strike rate will reflect this attitude –not in this case, alas.

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No excuses still, I’m afraid. Simply miles awayfrom the stated claims and a poor purchase for £97!

ONES TO FOLLOWhttp://www.winbet.org.uk/winningsystem1

This is the O’Neil Formula which claims to have a100% record with a variant of the system.

I am still no nearer solving this “follow specificfavourites system”. The problems remain and werehighlighted in the last newsletter.

Nearly all of these backing selected favourites andstopping at a winner systems fall flat because they donot adequately address the following:

• Joint favourites? – Ignore? Back both?

• Short odds on shots? Back them? Ignore them? If operating a stop at a winner system, with lossretrieval, then horses priced 1 /2 and /3 pose great problems.

• What specific staking plan should we be using?

• How can we maximise profits on good pricedfavourites around 5/2 and one winner at 9/2.

The 100% advertised system has not workedbecause we have had three days of consecutive losses

Still, there were many days when a favourite wonand at a price over evens which can help ensure aprofit with the correct staking plan.

This system certainly merits further consideration, andI need to reread it in order to clarify some key points.

If I can nail a good staking plan for this system,then there is real potential for profit.

Time will tell, and July and August is an ideal timelimit to show this system’s potential consistency.

NEW SYSTEMS There are some bespoke systems from readers

which I am going to be trialling and have some degreeof promise.

Watch out for intermittent reports on these systemswhich vary from straight backing, to footballaccumulators, to ditching specific races, and our oldfriend loss retrieval, but hopefully in a way whichallows us a sustainable long-term profit.

Recent releases that you may have been aware ofinclude the betting miracle at www.bettingmiracle.com,and is the standard affiliate marketing eBook – these

are a dime a dozen and the information containedtherein is usually rehashed and most certainly willNOT EVER replicate the claims made on the website.

£10,000 each and every month will NOT BEreached – it is a simple lie.

£100,000 by this time next year! You’ll see thefigure £100,000 used quite a lot in these affiliate salespitches – it seems to be a good trigger amount for themto use – not so big that it seems unattainable, but justbig enough that it gets the juices flowing, BUT as faras betting and £100,000 goes, well, I’m afraid not,unless your betting bank is already four or fivefigures!!

I’ve already spoken about this in my eletter and willrecount the salient points here for those who do not getthe eletter.

This system is a form of “price gapper” system andimmediately I can tell you that the odds are generallygoing to be low.

The strict criteria for this system will ensure thatqualifying bets will be infrequent and certainly therewill not be sufficient bets for you to win the £10,000per month claimed (absolutely ridiculous claim – quiteobviously a lie).

Clues that this is a waste of time, pure and simple.The actual title for Betting miracle’s pdf when openedshows “ Cracking Betfair” which leads us to believethis is the work of Kevin Schmidt.

The English language syntax used is also that of anon English speaker.

I was going to trial this system but frankly it iscomplete rubbish and a waste of time.

Take it from testimonial supplier Dan Marshall:

“That’s a nice and easy income for a housewife like me.”

Yes, you can earn enough to get a sex change op –hooray!!

www.bettingmiracle.com is yet another exampleshowing how easy it is to give off the appearance oflegitimacy, but always there will be clues that lead youto believe this is a simple exercise in collectingaddresses and marketing other products.

A week after the release of this eBook came anemail from betting miracle regardingthehorseracingtipster.com, the highly dubious newrelease for the affiliate marketers.

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You must realise by now that £100,000 per year and10K a week are not realisable care of a £77 eBook(reduced from £497 by the way LOL!!).

It’s about time you stopped falling for this rubbish,and let it go, wait a week or two, and see what comes up.

I admit I have hundreds of similar ebooks allsimilarly marketed and similarly priced and they are allrubbish. Learn to leave this lot alone.

Look at sites like this and www.layguru.com (whichis a scam, believe me) and you will see how easily youcan be taken in by it all, with the emotive language andclaims of great success – these are poorly presentedeBooks with no substance at all, and are simpleexercises in keeping the affiliate bandwagon rollingalong at the expense of honest customers.

As you can see, it’s not that easy finding anythinglegitimate these days! But I’m trying!

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It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot beheld responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever.

What Really Wins Money is sold on this understanding. ISSN: 1741 9018 All subscription correspondence to: What Really Wins Money, Subscription Office, Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS.Tel: 0208 597 0181 Fax: 0208 597 4040.

Registered office: Canonbury Publishing Ltd. Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ.Registered in England No. 4765425 Vat Reg No. 811 5700 64 © Copyright What Really Wins Money 2009

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