an insanely succinct summary of the electricity …...naruc an insanely succinct summary of the...
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An Insanely Succinct Summary
Of the Electricity System
Miles Keogh
NARUC Director of Grants & Research
CEET Technical Forum
April 28, 2011
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Today’s presentation is all about my opinions,
not NARUC policy or any of its members.
Hopefully my opinions are mostly in agreement with those.
NARUC & Grants & Research
• NARUC members are the State PUCs that regulate investor-owned utilities – http://www.naruc.org
• G&R Dept. addresses research and facilitates dialogue on key questions facing Commissions
• Federal Funders: EPA, Dept. of Energy, Dept. of Homeland Security
• Partnerships with FCC, NCS, FERC, private sector, non-governmental orgs
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Summary
• Where does our electricity come from?
• Three different maps: regulatory, market, power systems
• How we choose the order of power plant operation
• How we choose to build power plants
• State program leadership on clean energy
• A perfect segue into the other presentations
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Demand is (probably)growing
Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2006 and Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Early Release
*Electricity demand projections based on expected growth between 2006-2030
Bill
on
kilo
Wat
tho
urs
Recession
Impact?
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Energy Resources In the US:
where we are
EIA, 2007
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Where we’ve been
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Transmission in North America
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Where The Power Is
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Resources Gas
Coal
Nuclear Hydro
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Renewable Resources Wind Solar
Biomass Geothermal
Agricultural resources
Wood resources
Agricultural and
Low inventory
residues
and residues
wood residues
Temperature <90C
Temperature >90C
Geopressured resources
o
o
10
10
12
12
14
14
16
16
18
18 20
20
22 24
26
22 24
26
16
14
14
16 14
12
10
10
12 <10
10-12
12-14
14-16
16-18
18-20
20-22
22-24
24-26
26-28
>28
6.0-6.5 m/s 13.4-14.6 mph
6.5-70 m/s 14.6-15.7 mph
>7.0 m/s 15.7+ mph
Megajoules/m 2
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Federal & State Jurisdiction
Source: ISO-NE
Who needs a mnemonic?
FERC jurisdiction is over “sale for resale”*
* Who doesn’t know what a mnemonic is?
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Electricity Restructuring
Source: Energy Information Administration, status as of April 2007
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RTOs
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
MW Capacity (available)
Bid stack at full capacity
Peaking Unit 2($11)
Peaking Unit 1($9)
Gas Unit 5 ($6)
Gas Unit 3($5.60)
Gas Unit 2($5.20)
Gas Unit 1 ($5)
Coal unit 2($2.50)
Coal Unit 1 ($2)
Nuclear Plant($0.50)
Big Dam ($0.03)
Wind Farm 2($0.02)
Wind Farm 1($0.01)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2:00 AM 6:00 AM 10:00 AM 2:00 PM 6:00 PM 10:00 PM
RTO Demand (MW)
An Intro to Power
Dispatch
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Bumping marginal units off the bid stack:
Utility Procurement and CO2 dispatch pricing
Adding EE,
RE shifts the
resources in
the bid stack
Adding a carbon
price adds to
dispatch price
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The Many Charms Of Efficiency
Costs less than a power plant!
Pays you back – now with local
benefits!
NIMBY-proof!
Terrorist-proof!
Hurricane-proof!
Hugo Chavez-proof!
Easy to install: no wires or pipes!
100% NOx and SOx-free!
Legal everywhere, and Yucca-free!
Bird / Bat-friendly!
Good-looking!
More Popular Every Day!
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State programs
are the only
programs that
matter
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Renewable Portfolio Standards
State renewable portfolio standard
State renewable portfolio goal
www.dsireusa.org / April 2010
Solar water heating eligible * † Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables
Includes non-renewable alternative resources
WA: 15% x 2020*
CA: 33% x 2020
NV: 25% x 2025*
AZ: 15% x 2025
NM: 20% x 2020 (IOUs)
10% x 2020 (co-ops)
HI: 40% x 2030
Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement
TX: 5,880 MW x 2015
UT: 20% by 2025*
CO: 30% by 2020 (IOUs) 10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)*
MT: 15% x 2015
ND: 10% x 2015
SD: 10% x 2015
IA: 105 MW
MN: 25% x 2025 (Xcel: 30% x 2020)
MO: 15% x 2021
WI: Varies by utility;
10% x 2015 statewide
MI: 10% + 1,100 MW
x 2015*
OH: 25% x 2025†
ME: 30% x 2000 New RE: 10% x 2017
NH: 23.8% x 2025
MA: 22.1% x 2020 New RE: 15% x 2020
(+1% annually thereafter)
RI: 16% x 2020
CT: 23% x 2020
NY: 29% x 2015
NJ: 22.5% x 2021
PA: ~18% x 2021†
MD: 20% x 2022
DE: 20% x 2020*
DC: 20% x 2020
VA: 15% x 2025*
NC: 12.5% x 2021 (IOUs)
10% x 2018 (co-ops & munis)
VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales x 2012;
(2) 20% RE & CHP x 2017
KS: 20% x 2020
OR: 25% x 2025 (large utilities)*
5% - 10% x 2025 (smaller utilities)
IL: 25% x 2025 WV: 25% x 2025*†
29 states +
DC have an RPS (6 states have goals)
DC
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Resource Planning • IRP evaluates scenarios and chooses resource mix that has best reliability,
affordability, and other desired attributes
• Even without IRP, portfolio management is gaining ground
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I Will Now Confront
Your Most Challenging Questions!
Or! Later if you prefer!
Miles Keogh, 202-898-2217 [email protected]