an international survey of gun laws and violent crime: the republic of ireland, jamaica, great...
Post on 20-Dec-2015
216 views
TRANSCRIPT
An International Survey of Gun Laws and Violent Crime:
The Republic of Ireland,
Jamaica, Great Britain,
Australia, and Canada
American Society of Criminology
Dr. Gary A Mauser
Professor
Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies
Faculty of Business Administration
Simon Fraser University
Burnaby, BC, Canada
Presented to the Annual Meeting of the American Society of Criminology
Renaissance Hotel, Nashville, Tennessee
Saturday, 20 November 2004
American Society of Criminology
Do British-style firearm regulations create a safer society?
• Gun laws are explicitly focused on controlling firearms, but
• The promise is that more restrictive gun laws will make society safer
• What is the international evidence?
American Society of Criminology
An experiment in Brazil
• “[The gun law] is … to cut the spiral of violence.. ”– President Luiz da Silva, Brazil
• “The amnesty is the latest step in the [Brazil] government’s efforts to reduce violent crime.”– BBC report November 11, 2003
American Society of Criminology
Promises in South Africa
• “South Africa hopes to make a dent in its frighteningly high crime rate with a new gun-control law that went into effect …”– Agence France Presse, National Post, July 3, 2004, A10
• “We believe that in the long term these laws will ultimately create a safer South Africa.”– Police spokesman Andrew Lesch, July 3, 2004
American Society of Criminology
How can we measure improvements in public safety?
• Violent crime rates should drop
• Homicide rates should fall
• Not just criminal violence involving guns, but all criminal violence should fall
• Not just gun homicide, but total homicide
American Society of Criminology
Which measures are the most appropriate?
• Gun deaths
• Gun violence
• Total violent crime– Robbery, armed robbery
• Total homicide (or murder)
American Society of Criminology
Gun Death is a Red Herring
• Gun deaths are largely suicides• Suicide is not central to public safety
• Substitution effect is supported empirically• The removal of firearms or sharps must balance
liberty with personal safety
American Society of Criminology
Gun death is mostly suicide
• 57% of gun deaths in the US are due to suicides
• 77% of gun deaths in Canada are due to suicides
American Society of Criminology
Gun Violence
• It is relevant to ask whether gun laws cause gun violence to decrease (or increase),
• But …is this the best measure of public safety?
• A policy could reduce gun violence, but overall violent crime could still increase
• Gun crime is a small fraction of violent crime
American Society of Criminology
Gun violence is a small fraction of violent crime
• Violent crime involving firearms:
• Canada (2003) 2%• England and Wales (2001) 1%• United States (1999) 7%
American Society of Criminology
The most appropriate measures of public safety
• Homicide rate (or murder)
• Violent crime rate
• Robbery, armed robbery
American Society of Criminology
International trends compared with trends in the US
• Countries that have introduced harsh general firearms laws in the 1990s:– Australia, Great Britain, and Canada
• Countries that completely banned firearms in the 1970s: – Republic of Ireland and Jamaica
American Society of Criminology
A natural quasi-experiment
• The justice system in the United States has increasingly diverged from that in Britain or in the Commonwealth:– Arrest/conviction rates higher in the US,– Sentencing/punishment more severe, and– Citizens can carry concealed handguns.
American Society of Criminology
Please Note
• To assess the effect of laws, we must compare trends across countries
• Direct comparison of international averages is inappropriate
• Police statistics, despite limitations, are the best international measure
American Society of Criminology
Irish Gun Law
• Firearms prohibited and confiscated in 1972
• Concern with terrorism motivated this action as well as other police activities
American Society of Criminology
Murders continue to increase
Murder Trend in the Republic of Ireland
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19451948195119541957196019631966196919721975197819811984198719901993199619992002Source: Garda Stochana Annual Reports
Number of Murder Incidents
American Society of Criminology
Jamaican Gun Laws
• Gun court (1974 - 1982)– Firearms and ammunition prohibited– Mandatory life sentences– No bail, no jury trials for charges of possession
of firearm or ammunition crimes,
• Firearm ownership still prohibited
American Society of Criminology
Murders continue to increase
Murder Trend in Jamaica
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
196019621964196619681970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000
Source: Allen, de Albuquerque, Diener & Crandall, Interpol, UN Survey
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
FrequencyRate per 100,000
American Society of Criminology
Jamaican crime trends
Shootings and Murder in Jamaica
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000
Source: Professor A. Francis (2001)
rate per 100,000 population
Murder rate
Shooting rate
American Society of Criminology
Violent crime continues to increase
Violent Crime Index for Jamaica (1970-2000)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000Years
Crime Index
American Society of Criminology
Firearm laws have targeted legal owners
• The Firearms Amendment of 1988 was brought in following the Hungerford incident– Brought in shotgun licences
• The Firearms Amendment of 1997 was brought in after the Dunblane shooting– Prohibited and confiscated all handguns
American Society of Criminology
Homicide increasing
Homicide Trends in United States and England & Wales
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003Source: FBI and Home Office
Homicide in E&W (per
100,000)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Homicide in US (per
100,000)
EnglandUS
American Society of Criminology
Murders increasing in Scotland
Murder Trend in Scotland
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002
Source: Scottish Executive
Number of Incidents Recorded
American Society of Criminology
Violent crime rates increasing
Violent Crime Rates in England and the United States
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001
Sources: Home Office and FBI, 2001
Offences per 100,000
population
E & W
US
American Society of Criminology
Robbery is increasing but gun ownership
(legal) is decreasing Shotgun Certificates and Robberies,
England & Wales
0100000200000300000400000500000600000700000800000900000
1000000
19801982198419861988199019921994199619982000
Source: Greenwood, 2001
Shotgun Certificates
0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000100000
Total Robberies
Shotgun CertificatesTotal Robbery
American Society of Criminology
Very few firearms used in homicide are legally held
Fig. 6. Legal Status of Firearm in Firearm Homicide, England and Wales, 1992-1998
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Organised crime Domestic Robbery Arguments Other Total
Source: Criminal Statistics, E&W, 2000,T 3D
Total Firearms
Legally held
American Society of Criminology
Australian firearms legislation
• In 1997, government brought in sweeping firearms legislation following shootings in Tasmania
• Prohibited and confiscated semi-automatic long arms,
• Introduced strict new licencing and registration regulations
American Society of Criminology
Homicide rates stable in Australia since 1997 gun law
Homicide Trends in Australia and United States
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
198919901991 199219931994 199519961997 199819992000 200120022003
Source: FBI and AIC
Homicide rate in Australia
(per 100,000)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Homicide rate in US (per
100,000)
AustraliaUS
American Society of Criminology
Violent crime growing in Australia, but falling in the United States
Violent Crime Trends in the United States and Australia
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Source: AIC and FBI
(Australia) crimes recorded by
police
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
(United States) violent crime
per 100,000
AustraliaUnited States
American Society of Criminology
Robbery rates are climbing in Australia but falling in the US
Robbery Trends in Australia and United States
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Source: AIC and FBI
Robbery rate in Australia (per
100,000)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Robbery rate in US (per
100,000)
Australia
US
American Society of Criminology
Canadian firearms legislation
• 1977, introduced police screening for firearm purchasers
• 1991, stiffer rules for ownership, prohibited a variety of firearms, magazines
• 1995, owner licensing and universal firearm registration; banned many handguns
American Society of Criminology
Homicide rates decreasing faster in the US than in Canada
Trends in US and Canadian Homicide Rates
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Source: FBI and Juristat
Canadian per 100,000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
United States per 100,000
CDNUS
American Society of Criminology
Violent crime rates are basically flat in Canada, but falling in the US
Violent Crime Trends in the United States and Canada
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003
Source: FBI and Juristat
per 100,000 population
CDN
US
American Society of Criminology
Decline in firearm suicide rate does not reduce total suicide rate
Canadian Suicide Rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Source: Statistics Canada
Rates per 100,000 population
Total Suicide RateHanging Suicide RateFirearm Suicide Rate
American Society of Criminology
1995 Canadian firearms regulations
• Total costs expected to reach $2 billion in 2004
• Originally estimated to cost $2 million• Corruption investigation ongoing• No visible effect on violent crime rates or
suicide rates
American Society of Criminology
Summary
• No evidence that restrictive firearm regulations have reduced violent crime or homicide rates in Canada, Australia, Great Britain, Jamaica, or the Republic of Ireland
• Only the United States has witnessed a dramatic drop in criminal violence