“AN INTRODUCTION TO CONCEPTS AND ISSUES” 10Th EditionBy; John R.Weeks

CHAPTER 2GLOBAL POPULATION TRENDS (Review)

 

About the authorJohn R. Weeks is Professor of Geography in the

Geography Department at San Diego State University. His current research includes applications of remote sensing and GIS to analyze fertility in Arab nations, demography of the U.S.-Mexico border region, and geo demography of crime.

Definition of Demography in the field of Anthropology

The study of human populations and the ways in which they change, for example the study of how many births, marriages and deaths happen .

World Population Growth, a brief history

• Human beings have been around for at least 200,000 years.

• Humans were hunter –gatherers living a primitive existence marked by high fertility and high mortality and only very slow population growth.

So it is no surprise that the population of the world on the eve of the Agricultural revolution 10,000 years ago(8,000 B.C.) is estimated at about four million. Many people argue that the Agricultural

Revolution occurred slowly but pervasively across the face of the earth precisely because the hunting-gathering populations were growing just enough to push the limit of the carrying capacity of their way

of life.

• Carrying capacity refers to the number of people that can be supported in an area given the available physical resources and the way that people use those resources (Miller 2007).

• The population began to grow more noticeably after the Agricultural Revolution. Between 8000 B.C. and 5000 B.C., about 372 people on average were being added to the world’s total population each year, but by 500 B.C., as major civilizations were being established in China and Greece, the world was adding nearly 139,000 people each year to the total.

• Table 1. Population Growth was very slow in the earlier years of human existence, but has accelerated in the past 250 years.

• Year Population (in millions) 8000• 4 5000• 5 3000• 14 2000• 27 1000 50• 500 100• 1 211• 2015 7,219• 2050 9,076• The population data from 8000 through 1940 are drawn from the U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs

Centre, and “Historical Estimates of the World Population”.

• By the time of Christ (the Roman Period, A.D.) there may well have been more than 200 million people on the planet, increasing by more than 300,000 each year. There was some backsliding in the third through fifth centuries A.D., when increases in mortality, due to the Plague, let to declining population size in the Mediterranean area as the Roman Empire collapsed from a combination of flood, famine, and rebellion.

• The rate of growth began clearly to increase after that, especially in Europe, and on the eve of the Industrial Revolution in the middle of the eighteenth century (about 1750).

• How fast is the world’s population growing now?• The rapid growth over the past two hundred years

has been explosive. The rate of growth in 1960 was lower than in 1950. This was due to a terrible famine in China in 1959-60, which was produced by Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward program of 1958, in which the Chinese government “Leapt forward” into industrialization by selling “surplus” grain to finance industrial growth. Unfortunately the grain was not surplus, and the confiscation of food amounted to a self-imposed disaster that led to the deaths of 30 million Chinese in the following two years (1959 and 1960).

The Power of DoublingHuman populations, like all living things, have the capacity for exponential increase. A common way of measuring the growth potential of any combination of birth and death rates is to calculate the doubling time, the number of years required for a population to double in number if the current rate of growth continues. Table 1.1 in one day the world’s population increases by more than 200,000.

Source: Based on U.S.Census Bureau, 2007

Time period Births Deaths

Year 133,201,704 55,490,538

Day 364,936 152,029

Hour 15,206 6,335

Minute 253 106

Second 4 2

• The incredible power of doubling can be illustrated by tale of the Persian chessboard. The story is told that the clever inventor of the game of chess was called in by the King of Persia to be rewarded for this marvelous new game. When asked what he would like his reward to be, his answer was that he was a humble man and deserve only a humble reward. Gesturing to the board of 64 squares that he had devised for the game, he asked that he be given a single grain of wheat on the first square, twice that on the second square, twice that on the third square, and so on, until each square had its complement of wheat. The king protested that this was far too modest a prize, but the inventor persisted and the king finally relented. When the overseer of the Royal Granary began counting out the wheat, it started out small enough: 1, 2,4,8,16,32……, but by the time the 64th square was reached, the number was staggering- nearly 18.5 quintillion grains of wheat ( about 75 billion metric tons!)(Sagan 1989). This, of course, exceeded the “Carrying Capacity” of the royal granary in the same way that successive doublings of the human population threaten to exceed the carrying capacity of the planet.

• Why was early growth so slow? The reason the population grew so slowly during the

first 99 percent of human history was that death rates were very high, and at the same time very few populations have ever tried to maximize the number of children born. During the hunting-gathering phase of human history, it is likely that life expectancy at birth averaged about 20 years. At this level of mortality, more than half of all children born will die before age 5, and the average woman who survives through the reproductive years will have to bear nearly seven children in order to assure that two will survive to adulthood. This is still well below the biological limit of fertility.

Why Are Recent Increases So Rapid? The rapid acceleration in growth after 1750 was due almost entirely to the declines in the death rate that accompanied the Industrial Revolution. First in Europe and North America and more recently in less developed countries, death rates have decreased sooner and much more rapidly than have fertility rates. The result has been that many fewer people die than are born each year. In the industrialized countries, declines in mortality at first were due to the effects of economic development and a rising standard of living-people were eating better, wearing warmer clothes, living in better houses, bathing more often, drinking cleaner water, and so on

• Redistribution of the world’s population through Migration

In 2010, some 214 million people — 3 per cent of the world's population — lived outside their country of origin. The magnitude and complexity of international migration makes it an important force in development and a high-priority issue for both developing and developed countries. The fact that about half of all migrants are women, most of reproductive age, is another reason this a pressing issue for UNFPA. (UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund, is an international

development agency that promotes the right of every woman, man and child).

Internal migration within countries is also on the rise, as people move in response to inequitable distribution of resources, services and opportunities, or to escape violence, natural disaster or the increasing number of extreme weather events. The movement of people from rural to urban areas has contributed to the explosive growth of cities around the globe.

A relatively small percentage of migrants — about 10.5 million in 2011 — are refugees fleeing armed conflict, natural disaster, famine or persecution. But crises can displace large numbers of people over short time periods: Between December 2012 and January 2013, more than 255,000 Syrians fled the country. In a two year period, the conflict has displaced some 5 million people, 1 million of whom are registered as refugees in neighboring countries. In times of crisis, UNFPA pays particular attention to the specific, often overlooked, needs of women and young people.

• The majority of migrants cross borders in search of better economic and social opportunities. Economic migrants are the world's fastest growing group of migrants. Globalization has increased the mobility of labor, and a decline in fertility and working-age populations in many developed countries is leading to a rising demand for workers from abroad to sustain national economies. New patterns of migration have arisen, and many countries that once sent migrants abroad — for example, Argentina, Ireland and South Korea — are now experiencing migrant inflows as well.

One of the most significant changes in migration patterns in the last half century is that more women are migrating than ever before. Women now constitute half the international migrant population, and in some countries, as much as 70 or 80 per cent. As women migrants frequently end up in low-status, low-wage production and service jobs and often work in gender-segregated and unregulated sectors of the economy, such as domestic work.

• Migration is often temporary or circular, and many migrants maintain links with their home countries. While migrants make important contributions to the economic prosperity of their host countries, the flow of financial, technological, social and human capital back to their countries of origin also is having a significant impact on poverty reduction and economic development. Remittances from migrants are a major source of capital for developing countries.

Remittance flows to developing countries are estimated to total $406 billion in 2012, an increase

of 6.5 per cent over the previous year. Global remittance flows, including those to high-income

countries, were an estimated $534 billion in 2012. Possibly twice this amount was transferred

informally. These financial transfers are growing in significance. In many countries, they are larger than

either development assistance or foreign direct investment. Available data show that women send home a higher proportion of their earnings than do men. These contributions feed and educate children and generally improve the living standards of loved

ones left behind.

Attention is being drawn to measures to counteract the negative effects of 'brain drain', to encourage migrants to invest in their countries of origin

and bring their knowledge, skills and technical expertise to the

development process.

Geographical distribution and urbanizationIt goes without saying that populations are scattered across space.

S# Country Population Date% of world

population Source

1  China 1,367,470,000 October 24, 2014 19% Official population cl

ock2  India 1,261,420,000 October 24, 2014 17.5% Population clock

3  United States 318,964,000 October 24, 2014 4.43% Official population cl

ock4  Indonesia 252,164,800 July 1, 2014 3.5% Official estimate

5  Brazil 203,337,000 October,24, 2014 2.83% Official population cl

ock6  Pakistan 188,020,000 July 1, 2014 2.61% Official annual projec

tion7  Nigeria 178,517,000 July 1, 2014 2.48% UN projection[6]

8  Bangladesh 157,193,000 October 24, 2014 2.18% Official population cl

ock9  Russia 146,149,200 August 1, 2014 2.03% Official estimate

10  Japan 127,090,000 October 1, 2014 1.77% Monthly official esti

mate

Population Trends The world population of 7.2 billion in mid-2013 is projected to increase by almost one billion people within the next twelve years, according to official United Nations population estimates (medium variant, 2012 Revision). It is projected to reach 8.1 billion in 2025, and to further increase to 9.6 billion in 2050 and 10.9 billion by 2100. This assumes a decline of fertility for countries where large families are still prevalent as well as a slight increase of fertility in several countries with fewer than two children per woman on average.

Sharply divergent trends among countries and regionsAlmost all of the additional 3.7 billion people from now to 2100 will enlarge the population of developing countries, which is projected to rise from 5.9 billion in 2013 to 8.2 billion in 2050 and to 9.6 billion in 2100. Much of the overall increase between 2013 and 2050 is projected to take place in high-fertility countries, mainly in Africa, as well as countries with large populations such as India, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United States of America.

• Population declines expected in 43 countriesIn contrast, the population of the more developed regions is

expected to change minimally, passing from 1.25 billion in 2013 to 1.28 billion in 2100. The net increase is due largely to migration from developing to developed countries.

Populations of 43 countries or areas are expected to decrease between 2013 and 2050; of these, 40 are expected to continue to decrease between 2050 and 2100. Several countries are expected to see their populations decline by more than 15 per cent by 2050, including Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cuba, Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania, Republic of Moldova, Romania, the Russian Federation, Serbia, and Ukraine.

• Developing countries have large youth cohortsCurrently the population of the less developed regions is still

young, with children under age 15 accounting for 26 per cent of the population and young persons aged 15 to 24 accounting for a further 17 per cent. The numbers of children and young people in the less developed regions are at an all time high (1.7 billion children and 1.1 billion young people), posing a major challenge for their countries, which are faced with the necessity of providing education and employment to large cohorts of children and youth. The situation in the least developed countries is even more pressing, as children under age 15 constitute 40 per cent of their population and young people account for a further 20 per cent. In the more developed regions, children and youth account for 16 per cent and 12 per cent of the population, respectively.

• Working-age Cohorts to Rise in Developing Countries, and Fall in More Developed Regions

In both the more and the less developed regions, the number of people in the main working ages, from 25 to 59 years, is at an all-time high: 608 million and 2.6 billion, respectively. Yet, whereas in the more developed regions that number is expected to peak in 2013 and decline thereafter, reaching 533 millions in 2050 and 504 million in 2100, in the less developed regions it will continue rising, reaching 3.7 billion in 2050 and 4.1 billion in 2100. In developing countries, this population is projected to increase by over 400 million within the next decade. These population trends point to the urgency of supporting employment creation in developing countries as part of any strategy to address the slow economic recovery that the world is experiencing.

An ageing worldDeclining fertility and longer lives contribute to an older world. Globally, the number of persons aged 60 or over is expected to more than triple by 2100, increasing from 841 million in 2013 to 2 billion in 2050 and close to 3 billion in 2100. Already 66 per cent of the world’s older persons live in the less developed regions and by 2050, 79 per cent will do so. By 2100, this figure will reach 85 per cent.

Population by regionSix of Earth's seven continents are permanently inhabited on a large scale. Asia is the most populous continent, with its 4.3 billion inhabitants accounting for 60% of the world population.

• The world's two most populated countries alone, China and India, together constitute about 37% of the world's population.

• Africa is the second most populated continent, with around 1 billion people, or 15% of the world's population.

Europe's 733 million people make up 12% of the world's population (as of 2012), while the Latin American and Caribbean regions are home to around 600 million (9%).

Northern America, primarily consisting of the United States and Canada, has a population of around 352 million (5%), and Oceania, the least-populated region, has about 35 million inhabitants (0.5%).

• Antarctica has a small, fluctuating international population, based mainly in polar science stations. This population tends to rise in the summer months and decrease significantly in winter, as visiting researchers return to their home countries.

• Chinas’s one child policy• For more than thirty years, China's One Child Policy has done

much to limit the country's population growth. Here are ten essential facts about China's One Child Policy:

• 1) China's One Child Policy was created in 1979 by Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping to temporarily limit communist China's population growth. It has thus been in place for more than 32 years.

• 2) China's One Child Policy most strictly applies to Han Chinese living in urban areas of the country. It does not apply to ethnic minorities throughout the country. Han Chinese represents more than 91% of the Chinese population. Just over 51% of China's population lives in urban areas. In rural areas, Han Chinese families can apply to have a second child if the first child is a girl.

3) If a first child is born with birth defects or major health problems, the couple is usually permitted to have a second child.

4) When the One Child Policy was adopted in 1979, China's population was about 972 million people. In 2012 the population of China is about 1.343 billion people, 138% growth over that time period. By contrast, India's population in 1979 was 671 million and in 2012 India's population is 1.205 billion people, which is 180% over the 1979 population. By most estimates, India will surpass China as the world's most populous country by 2027 or earlier, when both countries' population is expected to reach about 1.4 billion.

5) If China continues its One Child Policy in the decades to come, it will actually see its population decrease. China is expected to peak in population around 2030 with 1.46 billion people and then begin falling to 1.3 billion by 2050.

6) With the One Child Policy in place, China is expected to achieve zero population growth by 2025. By 2050, China's population growth rate will be -0.5%.

7) China's sex ratio at birth is more imbalanced than the global average. There are about 113 boys born in China for every 100 girls.

8) For families who observe the One Child Policy, there are rewards: higher wages, better schooling and employment, and preferential treatment in obtaining governmental assistance and loans. For families who violate the One Child Policy, there are sanctions: fines, employment termination, and difficulty in obtaining governmental assistance.

9) Families who are permitted to have a second child usually have to wait from three to four years after the birth of the first child before conceiving their second child.

10) The recent peak total fertility rate for Chinese women was in the late 1960s, when it was 5.91 in 1966 and 1967. When the One Child Policy was first imposed, the total fertility rate of Chinese women was 2.91 in 1978. In 2012, the total fertility rate had dropped to 1.55 children per woman.

There is a most striking paradox in global population trends: on one hand we have had a rapid decline in fertility for over two decades in many developing countries - not to mention the already very low fertility in most of the highly developed nations; on the other hand we will almost certainly experience a further massive  increase of the world population. In their most recent projection ("World Population Assessment and Projection. The 1996 edition") the United Nations Population Division projects a global population of 8.04 billion for the year 2025 and 9.37 billion for 2050. According to this medium variant, an increase of some 2.35 billion people can be expected worldwide between 1995 and 2025; and an additional 1.3 billion between 2025 and 2050.

• UN medium variant projection is based on the assumption that almost all countries worldwide will have a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of only 2.1 in 2050 at the latest (only for 10, mostly European countries, the UN assumes a TFR in 2050 that is a little less - between 1.84 and 2.1).

• This assumption would require a further steep fertility decline in many developing nations - especially in Pakistan, Nigeria, Iran or India, where the Total Fertility Rates are still far above the reproductive level of 2.1 children per woman.

• According to the most recent UN estimates, Pakistan for instance, currently has a TFR of about 5 children per woman - the medium variant projection assumes that it will drop to 2.1 during the next 25 years. In other words, we will only have a world population of about 9.4 billion by 2050, if the Total Fertility Rate, measured as a global average, declines from about 3.0 in 1990-95 to the reproductive level of 2.1 children per woman in 2035-40.

If worldwide fertility would drop to only about 2.6 children per woman (instead of 2.1 as assumed in the medium variant), we would have a global population of some 8.6 billion by 2025 and 11.2 billion by 2050. This would be equivalent to a 2.89 billion increase between 1995 and 2025 and a 2.58 billion increase between 2025 and 2050.

• Is it possible to completely stop world population growth during the next few decades?

• Yes, it is - if fertility, worldwide, would decline to 1.57 children per woman, the global population could stabilize at about 7.5 billion by 2025. This is the result of the 1996 UN low variant projections. Please note that this variant assumes a drastic drop of average fertility to a level of some 24% below replacement - in all countries worldwide. While such a steep decline, in fact, already happened in many European countries, it is rather unlikely that populous developing nations such as Pakistan, India, Indonesia or Nigeria - which greatly determine world population growth - would quickly follow this trend.