An Issued Challenge

Goal: Provide resources for a global population that will quadruple in 100 years

Done: 1900 – 2000 Consequences: Depends on your point

of view about progress versus quality of life versus human condition

Some ConsequencesSome Consequences

Rapid mining/depletion of accessible high Rapid mining/depletion of accessible high energy content medium energy content medium conventional oil conventional oil

Serious worldwide inequities in resource Serious worldwide inequities in resource distribution and wealth due to rate of distribution and wealth due to rate of growthgrowth

Two world wars and some other minor Two world wars and some other minor skirmishes, invasions, annexations,etcskirmishes, invasions, annexations,etc

Possible climate change or increased Possible climate change or increased climate volatilityclimate volatility

Peak Oil or Plateau OilPeak Oil or Plateau Oil

Where Does US Oil Come From?Where Does US Oil Come From?

Business As Usual ScenarioBusiness As Usual Scenario

Population stabilizes to 10-12 billion Population stabilizes to 10-12 billion by the year 2100 (possible to do)by the year 2100 (possible to do)

Total world energy use from 2000 to Total world energy use from 2000 to 2100 is 4000 Terra Watt Years 2100 is 4000 Terra Watt Years (Current US use is about 1.5 TW (Current US use is about 1.5 TW years)years)

Is there any solution to this?Is there any solution to this?

Ultimately Recoverable ResourceUltimately Recoverable Resource

• Conventional Oil/Gas• Unconventional Oil• Coal• Methane Clathrates• Tar Sands• Uranium Ore• Geothermal Steam -

conventional

• 1000 TWy (1/4 need)• 2000• 5000• 20,000• 30,000• 2,000• 4,000

Coal Remains a Real ProblemCoal Remains a Real Problem

• 51% of all electricity in the US is coal-fired and coal production in the US is up

• China is currently adding 1 new 1000 MW coal fired steam plant every 10 days to its energy infrastructure.

• Coal production in India is also significantly up.

China Could be the Tipping PointChina Could be the Tipping Point

• Increased Methane emissions from rice cultivation

• Chinese private vehicle fleet is doubling every 3 years.

• Coal fired electricity to increase

• Combined effects – China will equal the US in greenhouse gas emission per year by the year 2015-2017.

Non Fossil Fuel ResourcesNon Fossil Fuel Resources

• Breeder Reactors• Hot Dry Rock• Sunlight• Wind Energy• Global Biomass• Fusion

• 2,000,000 TWy• 1,000,000• 9,000,000• 200,000• 10,000• Essentially unlimited

There is no Real Energy There is no Real Energy Barrier or LimitBarrier or Limit

Alternatives to Fossil Fuels are available Alternatives to Fossil Fuels are available if we just build the infrastructure for if we just build the infrastructure for harvesting and delivery of those harvesting and delivery of those resources. It can be done (i.e. we did it resources. It can be done (i.e. we did it last century)last century)

However, we do have real problems to However, we do have real problems to overcomeovercome

We may be running out of …We may be running out of …

Cheap OilCheap Oil

Livable Environment/Fresh WaterLivable Environment/Fresh Water

Money (e.g. capital investments) for better Money (e.g. capital investments) for better optionsoptions

Time for a transition out of the fossil fuel Time for a transition out of the fossil fuel economy into something elseeconomy into something else

Leadership to do what is requiredLeadership to do what is required

Terrawatt Production Schemes Terrawatt Production Schemes – 30 years to develop we – 30 years to develop we

invest nowinvest now Wind turbines in the Aleutian Islands Wind turbines in the Aleutian Islands

(total resource is 50 TW) – use Hydrogen (total resource is 50 TW) – use Hydrogen as a proxy for a transmission lineas a proxy for a transmission line

100 x 100 sq km PV array in North Africa100 x 100 sq km PV array in North Africa Gulf Stream TurbinesGulf Stream Turbines OTEC in equatorial watersOTEC in equatorial waters Ultimately, hot dry rock wells in the Ultimately, hot dry rock wells in the

American westAmerican west

BUSINESS AS USUAL: Russian and Iran become our main importers. But will we be outbid by China?