ana cascao ppt
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POWER RELATIONS, CONFLICT AND COOPERATION IN THE NILE BASIN
Ana CascãoKing’s College of London/CEAUP
WATER IN AFRICA:Hydro-Pessimism or Hydro-Optimism?
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NILE – HYDROLOGY AND POLITICS
NILE RIVER BASIN
• 1 River• 2 sub-Basins• 10 riparians• Unequal contribution• Unequal utilisation
Disparity of numbers
Main provider
Main user
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NILE - WATER RESOURCES AVAILABILITY
1.8
58.3
30
64.5
122 122
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
km3/
year
Egypt Sudan Ethiopia
Internal Renewable Water Resources
Actual Renewable Water Resources
NON-NILE
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NILE - WATER RESOURCES AVAILABILITY AND UTILISATION
1.8
58.3
68.3
55.5
30
64.5
37.3
14
122 122
5.550.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
km3/
year
Egypt Sudan Ethiopia
Internal Renewable Water Resources
Actual Renewable Water Resources
Total water withdrawal
Total withdrawal from the Nile
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DEPENDENCY AND CONTROL
97%76.9%
0%
Egypt Sudan Ethiopia
DEPENDENCY on external water resources (%)
169
8.7 3.5
-
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
Egypt Sudan Ethiopia
TECHNICAL CONTROL - Total storage capacity (km3) LEGAL CONTROL - Allocations of the 1959 Agreement (km3)
Ethiopia0
Egypt55.5
Evapotranspiration
10
Sudan18.5
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INEQUALITIES = CONFLICT?
Control
Allocation
Contribution
Utilisation
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CONFLICT OF INTERESTS
Historical and acquired rights
Potential needs and uses
“New water”
Storage infrastructuresHydropower
Irrigation
Extreme dependence
Water for development
CONFLICT OF LANGUAGES
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POWER RELATIONS MATTER!
EGYPT SUDAN ETHIOPIA
Geography
Geography
GeographyMaterial
power
Material power
Material power
Bargaining power
Bargaining power
Bargaining power
Ideationalpower
Ideationalpower
Ideationalpower
Two Hydropolitical Dynamics:
Hegemony &
Counter-Hegemony
(Adapted from Zeitoun, 2005)
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GEOPOLITICS ARE CHANGING!
USA
CHINA
EUROPE
SUDAN
ETHIOPIA
EGYPT
World Bank
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COOPERATION = EQUITY?
Equitable utilisation Development
Benefits
Nile Basin
Initiative
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CURRENT COOPERATION IN THE NILE BASIN
NILE BASIN INITIATIVE
• Since 1999• Multilateral cooperation• Goal: Project-by-project• “Benefit-sharing”• Godfather: World Bank• Economic integration
COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT
• Since 1997• Goal: New Nile Treaty• Equitable Utilisation + No harm• “Water-sharing”• Constructed Ambiguity• Nile Basin Commission =
Funding
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Thanks for your attention!