analysing your marketing mix through actionable metrics within a fair attribution model

BJORN BEHRENDT, EXAMPLES & RESEARCH FILES ON MOBILE-FUTURE.COM.AU

PAGE 1

ANALYSING YOUR MARKETING MIX

THROUGH ACTIONABLE METRICS

WITHIN A FAIR ATTRIBUTION MODEL

ONLINE RETAIL SUMMIT 2013, HUNTER VALLEY

© MOBILE-FUTURE.COM.AU

AGENDA

BACKGROUND

BASICS

ACTIONABLE METRICS

LEAN ATTRIBUTION MODEL

COOKBOOK

GOOGLE ANALYTICS


MY

BACKGROUND

KPMG

EBAY

4SXS

HIOGI

STYLETREAD

PARCELPUSH

• STYLETREAD LAUNCHED 10/12

MODELLED AROUND ZAPPOS

• $19M IN FUNDING (NINE

ENTERTAINMENT, STARFISH,

LAKESTAR…)

• 750K-1M MONTHLY VISITORS

• 500K+ DATABASE

• TRADE SALE FEB 2013

• LAUNCH OF KILLCOM.COM 3/13

• INSERT MARKETING NETWORK

FOR ONLINE RETAILERS

• LAUNCHED 01/13

• 250K MONTHLY E-COMMERCE

PARCEL INSERTS

• 2M MONTHLY CAPACITY


THREE

DIFFERENT

TYPES

ACROSS

MULTIPLE

SCREENS

ACROSS DIGITAL

CHANNELS

ATTRIBUTION

MODELS

ONLINE TO

STORE


DEFINITIONS

MARKETING ATTRIBUTION IS THE PRACTICE OF

DETERMINING THE ROLE THAT CHANNELS PLAY

IN INFLUENCING THE CUSTOMER JOURNEY

TOWARDS CONVERSION GOALS.

ATTRIBUTION MODELS AIMS TO GIVE EACH

CHANNEL A FAIR ROI VALUE.

ATTRIBUTION OFFERS THE ABILITY TO

UNDERSTAND HOW MARKETING IMPACTS THE

ENTIRE SALES CYCLE AND TO OPTIMIZE

ACROSS IT.

*PARTLY FROM 2012 ECONSULTANCY

“MARKETING ATTRIBUTION

VALUING THE CUSTOMER JOURNEY”


SURVEY

RESULTS

Budget

increase of

21% in ALL

channels

54% of

businesses carry

out some form of

attribution

But of those who do,

89% say attribution had a positive impact on their

business

of whom

28% use last

click

WWW.GOOGLE.COM/THINK/WEBI

NARS/BUILDING-BLOCKS-DIGITAL-

ATTRIBUTION.HTML

ADOBE ATTRIBUTION

INFOGRAPHIC

http://www.google.com/think/webinars/building-blocks-digital-attribution.html









BENEFITS OF

ATTRIBUTION*

*2012 STUDY BY ECONSULTANCY




BARRIERS TO

ATTRIBUTION /

KEYS TO

SUCCESS





CHANGES TO

CHANNEL

INVESTMENT

RESULTING

FROM

ATTRIBUTION





AGENDA

BACKGROUND

BASICS

ACTIONABLE METRICS


COOKBOOK

GOOGLE ANALYTICS


ATTRIBUTION

MODELS ARE

MORE THAN…

SPEND PER CHANNEL

/ CONVERSIONS PER CHANNEL

= CPO PER CHANNEL

…

AIDA MODEL,

ENGAGEMENT,

LOYALTY

CROSS-CHANNEL IMPACT EXAMPLES:

• „DISPLAY‟ AND „TV‟ CREATE A NEW BUYING

INTENT AND A DESIRE WHILE INCREASING

BRAND AWARENESS.

• „SEM‟ AND „SEO‟ ALSO CREATE BRAND

AWARENESS, BUT MAINLY REACT TO AN

EXISTING INTENT/DESIRE (SEARCH QUERY)

OFTEN RESULTING IN AN ACTION.

• „DIRECT‟ IS A RESULT OF ALL OF THE ABOVE.

• WHICH CHANNEL MOVES CUSTOMERS MORE

EFFICIENTLY FROM BEING INTRODUCERS TO

INFLUENCERS TO CLOSERS…?!


AGENDA

BACKGROUND

BASICS

ACTIONABLE METRICS


COOKBOOK

GOOGLE ANALYTICS

ACTIONABLE , ACCESSIBLE AND AUDITABLE

THE THREE A‟S OF

METRICS


CONVERSION

FUNNEL:

ACTIONABLE

PERCENTAGES

MATTER E.G. HYPOTHESIS:

ACTIVATION RATE

FROM 1ST TIME

VISITORS TO A

PAYING CUSTOMER IS

HIGHER IF SOMEONE

WATCHED A PRODUCT

VIDEO (EVENT)

ACQUISITION

ACTIVATION

RETENTION

REFERRAL

REVENUE

%

%

%

%

% Event % Event

% Event % Event

% Event % Event

% Event % Event

…IT IS MOST LIKELY A VANITY METRIC

IF “A CURRENT AFFAIR”

INCREASES THE

METRIC…


ACTIONABLE

CONVERSION

METRICS

Metric Customer Behaviour Conversion

Rate (% of

unique

visits)

Estimated

Value

Acquisition Rate 1 Spends x time on site and y

views onsite

60% $0.10

Activation Rate 2 Relevant 1st visit (x clicks, y

views, z time on site)

25% $0.40

Activation Rate 1 Email Signup 4% $2.50

Activation Rate 2 Account Signup 2% $3.00

Retention Rate 1 Email opened 4% $0.75

Retention Rate 2 Repeat visit (x visits in y

days)

3% $2.00

Referral Rate 1 Referred a user who visited

site

4% $6.00

Referral Rate 2 Referred a user who

activated

3% $9.00

Revenue Rate 1 Customer orders 4% $12.00

Revenue Rate 2 Customer orders repeatedly

reaching relevant CLTV

2% $28.00

E.G. HYPOTHESIS:

THE CLTV AND REFERRAL

RATE OF A CUSTOMER

WHO HAS SEEN THE TVC IS

X TIMES HIGHER THAN THE

AVERAGE


IDEAS FOR

GOALS AND

EVENTS

• CONVERSION / PURCHASE

• NEWSLETTER SUBSCRIPTIONS

• FREE TRIAL SUBSCRIPTIONS

• UPGRADES

• QUOTE REQUESTS

• DOWNLOADS

• WATCHING A VIDEO ABOUT A SERVICE/PRODUCT

• VIEWING 5+ PAGES ON THE WEBSITE

• VIEWING 10+ PAGES ON THE WEBSITE

• FACEBOOK LIKES / GOOGLE+

• JOB APPLICATION FORMS

• CONTACT FORMS

• IN-APP PURCHASES


COHORTS

AND

FUNNEL

ANALYSIS

SOURCE:

BOOK BY ERIC RIES

THE LEAN STARTUP


AGENDA

BACKGROUND

BASICS

ACTIONABLE METRICS


COOKBOOK

GOOGLE ANALYTICS

THE LEAN STARTUP PROCESS - DIAGRAM

THE MINIMUM VIABLE CAMPAIGN IS THAT VERSION OF A NEW

MARKETING CAMPAIGN WHICH ALLOWS A TEAM TO COLLECT THE

MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF STATISTICAL RELEVANT RESULTS WITH THE

LEAST EFFORT, LEAST TIME AND THE LEAST BUDGET POSSIBLE.

MVC

AND AVOID THE LARGE BATCH DEATH-SPIRAL

WORK IN SMALL

BATCHES


ITERATE,

ITERATE,

ITERATE,

THEN PIVOT

CUSTOMER SEGMENT PIVOT: HYPOTHESIS MIGHT BE

CONFIRMED FOR THE CHANNEL, BUT AN UNEXPECTED USER

GROUP REACT => MIGHT LEAD TO CHANGES IN LANGUAGE,

GRAPHICS, CLTV, BUDGET…

ZOOM-IN PIVOT: WHAT WAS CONSIDERED TO BE AN

ASSISTING OR SUPPORTING CAMPAIGN BECOMES THE MAIN

CAMPAIGN.

ZOOM-OUT PIVOT: TEST AROUND A CERTAIN MEDIUM /

CHANNEL MIGHT NOT HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO VALIDATE A

HYPOTHESIS AND MORE CHANNELS MIGHT NEED TO BE

ADDED.

PLATFORM PIVOT: A TECHNOLOGY MIGHT PROOF TO

DELIVER USELESS RESULTS.

METHODOLOGY PIVOT: A CERTAIN STATISTICAL APPROACH

MIGHT PROOF TO BE IRRELEVANT OR USELESS.

MAKE AS MANY

MISTAKES AS

QUICKLY AS

POSSIBLE TO LEARN

FROM THEM

1. RATE OF NEW CUSTOMER ACQUISITIONS NEEDS TO

EXCEED THE CHURN RATE.

2. INCREASE REVENUE FROM EACH CUSTOMER.

3. IMPROVE RETENTION AND VIRAL COEFFICIENT (VC>1).

4. REDUCE ACQUISITION COSTS FOR NEW CUSTOMERS.

RULES FOR THE

STICKY ENGINE OF

GROWTH

USE THE

5 WHY‟S TO GET TO THE BOTTOM OF THINGS…


AGENDA

BACKGROUND

BASICS

ACTIONABLE METRICS


COOKBOOK

GOOGLE ANALYTICS


COOKBOOK

PART I:

THE SETUP

1. ENSURE YOUR PROMOTIONS ARE MEASURABLE

(CAMPAIGN LINKS UTM TAGGED / URL BUILDER).

2. ENSURE GOOGLE ANALYTICS IS INSTALLED ON

YOUR LANDING PAGES (TAGGING PAGES).

3. DEFINE AND SETUP CONVERSION GOALS AND

EVENTS FOR YOUR SITE AND APP (ENGAGEMENT

FLOWS, FUNNELS)

4. TEST YOUR SETUP

5. INSTALL ADWORDS CONVERSION TRACKING

6. LINK ADWORDS ACCOUNTS

7. ENABLE ADWORDS AUTO-TAGGING

8. ENABLE TRACKING FOR ALL PAGES AND

SUBDOMAINS (EXCLUDE OFFICE IP)

9. COLLECT ORDER DATA (SKU, PRICE)

http://support.google.com/analytics/bin/answer.py?hl=en&answer=1037445&topic=1032998&ctx=topic

http://support.google.com/analytics/bin/answer.py?hl=en&answer=1037445&topic=1032998&ctx=topic

https://support.google.com/analytics/answer/1033867

https://support.google.com/analytics/bin/answer.py?hl=en&utm_medium=et&utm_campaign=en_us&utm_source=SetupChecklist&answer=1008080

https://support.google.com/analytics/answer/1032415?hl=en&rd=1


COOKBOOK

PART II:

TIPS FOR THE

FIRST

ITERATION

1. DO A CHANNEL BY CHANNEL AUDIT FIRST

2. THEN START WITH TWO CHANNELS

3. USE ONE TRACKING SYSTEM

4. SET COOKIE DURATION

5. REDUCE DATA / COMPLEXITY E.G. BY JUST

LOOKING AT 2-3 TOUCH POINTS

6. START WITH STANDARD CONVERSION

GOALS

7. RUN SPLIT-TESTS AND REGRESSION TESTS

TO TEST CORRELATIONS

8. ENSURE RESULTS ARE STATISTICAL

RELEVANT (SEE CALCULATOR MOBILE-FUTURE.COM.AU)


COOKBOOK

PART II:

USE

ATTRIBUTION

RATIOS TO

COMPARE

CAMPAIGN

SPLIT-TEST

RESULTS

REVENUE FROM FIRST TOUCH / REVENUE FROM LAST TOUCH

= APPROPRIATE ATTRIBUTION RATIO

• CLOSER TO 0.00 = CONVERSION CAMPAIGN

• CLOSER TO 1.00 = PERSUASION CAMPAIGN

• CLOSER TO 10.00 = ACQUISITION CAMPAIGN

APPROPRIATE ATTRIBUTION NET RATIO = (REVENUE FROM

FIRST TOUCH - CAMPAIGN MARKETING COST) / (REVENUE

FROM LAST TOUCH – CAMPAIGN MARKETING COST)

APPROPRIATE ATTRIBUTION RATIO MARGIN = (REVENUE

FROM FIRST TOUCH – CAMPAIGN COGS/ REVENUE FROM

LAST TOUCH - CAMPAIGN COGS)

SOURCE: ACQUISIO / SEARCH MARKETING NOW

“BUILDING AN ATTRIBUTION MODEL THAT WORKS”


COOKBOOK

PART III:

CALCULATE

EFFICIENCY

FACTORS PER

CHANNEL AND

USE SIMPLE

SCORING TO

DETERMINE

FAIRER CPOS (SEE EXCEL EXAMPLE MOBILE-FUTURE.COM.AU)

INSPIRED BY QUISMA “INDIVIDUAL CONVERSION ATTRIBUTION”


COOKBOOK

PART IV:

START

CRUNCHING

BIGGER DATA

1. WORK SCIENTIFICALLY

2. HIRE SOME REALLY BRIGHT TALENT (FINANCE OR

ACCOUNTING BACKGROUND, EXCELLENT EXCEL

SKILLS)

3. UPGRADE YOUR ANALYTICS SOFTWARE OR START

COMBINING MORE DATA SOURCES IN ONE BI

SYSTEM

4. INVEST INTO AN AD SERVER

5. ADD BEHAVIOURAL PROFILING TO THE MIX

6. INTEGRATE DIRECT MARKETING TOOLS AND

START AUTOMATING PERSONALISED MESSAGES

(EMAIL, ABANDONED CART, RETARGETING…)


AGENDA

BACKGROUND

BASICS

ACTIONABLE METRICS


COOKBOOK

GOOGLE ANALYTICS


VENN DIAGRAM

GOOGLE ANALYTICS


VENN DIAGRAM

WITH SOCIAL

MEDIA

GOOGLE ANALYTICS


TOP

CONVERSION

PATHS

GOOGLE ANALYTICS


ASSISTED

CONVERSIONS

ANALYSIS

“SUCCESSFUL

SALE”

GOOGLE ANALYTICS


PATH LENGTH IN

INTERACTIONS

GOOGLE ANALYTICS


TIME LAG IN

DAYS

GOOGLE ANALYTICS


GOOGLE

ANALYTICS

ATTRIBUTION

MODELING

TOOL*

*GOOGLE ANALYTICS PLAYBOOK


GOOGLE

ANALYTICS

CUSTOM

MODELS

GOOGLE ANALYTICS

[email protected]

TWITTER.COM/BBWEB

0423 509 161

SOURCES & EXAMPLES AS ZIP ON

WWW.MOBILE-FUTURE.COM.AU

analysing your marketing mix through actionable metrics within a fair attribution model

Business

lean attribution

marketing

google analytics

google analytics

part ii

venn diagram

customer journey

actionable